Since the successful detonation of atomic bombs by the United States and the Soviet Union, the international community has begun to consider how to fundamentally eliminate the threat posed by nuclear weapons, and has raised the core issue of nuclear arms control, with the aim of restricting the development, testing, deployment, and use of nuclear weapons, so as to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons and prevent nuclear war. For more than 70 years, with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty) and other arms control treaties have been signed one after another, forming the framework of the current nuclear arms control system. For a long time in the past, the system has played a positive role in maintaining global security and stability. However, in recent years, the international situation has been complex and changeable, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that have broken out since 2022 may reshape the world pattern. Against the backdrop of the current turbulence and the deterioration of relations between major powers, major countries are paying more attention to nuclear deterrence capacity building, resulting in more severe risks and challenges to the nuclear arms control system.
1. The current situation of the nuclear forces of the world's major countries
According to the report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden (all data in Table 1-12 are from the 2023 Nuclear Forces Report released by the Institute), as of January 2023, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel have a total of about 12,512 nuclear warheads, of which 9,576 are considered to have potential combat capabilities. It is estimated that 3844 nuclear warheads are deployed in combat units, of which about 2000 are on high combat alert. Overall, the number of nuclear warheads in the world continues to decline, mainly due to the dismantling of decommissioned warheads by the United States and Russia, but the number of operational nuclear warheads worldwide has risen. At the same time, the United States and Russia are accelerating modernization and expansion of their nuclear warheads, missiles, aircraft and submarine delivery systems, and nuclear weapons production facilities. Other nuclear-weapon States are either developing or deploying new weapons systems, or have announced plans to further develop nuclear weapons beyond the limits of nuclear arms control treaties.
(1) United States
U.S. nuclear forces mainly include strategic nuclear forces and non-strategic nuclear forces. Among them, the strategic nuclear forces are the "three-in-one" nuclear forces composed of strategic bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and ballistic missile nuclear submarines. Sweden's Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that a total of 3,508 nuclear warheads are deployed in the Trinity. Non-strategic nuclear forces mainly refer to air-dropped non-strategic weapons B61 nuclear gravity bombs, including B61-3 and B61-4, with a total of 200 pieces. Of these, 100 are deployed in NATO countries, including Cranbrocher Air Base in Belgium, Bischer Air Base in Germany, Aviano and Gedi Air Base in Italy, Volker Air Base in the Netherlands, and the remaining 100 at Cortland Air Force Base in New Mexico.
(2) Russia
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report in Sweden, as of January 2023, Russia has a total of 4,489 nuclear warheads, an increase of about 12 compared to January 2022. Of these, 2,673 are strategic nuclear warheads and 1,861 are tactical nuclear warheads.
(3) United Kingdom
The United Kingdom is the only nuclear-weapon state with a single type of nuclear weapons, and its nuclear deterrence is based entirely on sea-based nuclear forces. As of January 2023, the UK has about 225 nuclear warheads in its nuclear weapons stockpile, all of which were launched by avantgarde-class ballistic missile submarines equipped with Trident II submarine-launched missiles, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden. According to the UK's 2021 report, A Comprehensive Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy – A Globalizing Britain in an Age of Competition, the UK government will significantly increase the cap on its nuclear weapons stockpile to a maximum of 260 nuclear warheads.
(iv) France
According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, as of January 2023, France has a nuclear weapons stockpile of about 290 nuclear warheads, the same number as in 2022. These nuclear warheads are mounted on submarine-launched ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles. These two missiles are armed on ballistic missile nuclear submarines and Rafale fighters, respectively. Among them, the Rafale fighter is divided into two versions, land-based and carrier-based aircraft, and it is the land-based Rafale BF3 aircraft that performs nuclear missions, and the 10 warheads that can be carried by the carrier-based aircraft Rafale MF3 are considered to be kept in central warehouses and are usually not deployed.
(5) India
As of January 2023, India's stockpile of nuclear weapons has increased to about 164, a slight increase from 2022, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden. These nuclear warheads are assigned to groups of fighters, land-based ballistic missiles and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
(6) Pakistan
As of January 2023, Pakistan has about 170 nuclear warheads, a slight increase compared to 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden.
(7) North Korea
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden reports that North Korea has been engaged in a highly opaque nuclear weapons program, and all figures in the table below are assessments, and the missiles included in the table do not necessarily have a nuclear effect.
(viii) Israel
As of January 2023, Israel is estimated to have about 90 nuclear warheads, the same number as in 2022, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden.
2. Global fissile material stocks and production in 2022
Common nuclear fissile materials mainly include highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium. The SIPRI report details stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and plutonium as of early 2022, as well as details of the global capacity to produce nuclear fissile material, as summarized in the table below.
III. Risks and Challenges Facing the Global Nuclear Arms Control System in the New Situation
(1) The international nuclear arms control treaty is in jeopardy, and the risk of nuclear conflict is intensifying
At present, nuclear arms control treaties mainly include the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Among them, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is the cornerstone of the international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime, and is an international cooperation to prevent nuclear proliferation, promote nuclear disarmament and promote the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The Treaty entered into force in March 1970 and was extended indefinitely by the 1995 Review and Extension Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Currently, 191 countries have signed the document, in addition to countries such as India, Israel and Pakistan. The DPRK acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1985 and formally withdrew from the Treaty in January 2003. The New START Treaty is a bilateral nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the United States and Russia in April 2010 to limit the number of nuclear arsenals in both countries and will be valid until February 2026. In addition to limiting the number and deployment of nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles between the two countries, the treaty also includes a series of nuclear weapons monitoring and transparency mechanisms, including provisions on counting methods and data exchange for various types of nuclear weapons, which will help enhance mutual trust and reduce the occurrence of miscalculations and accidents. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a treaty designed to promote the comprehensive prevention of the proliferation of nuclear weapons and the process of nuclear disarmament, thereby enhancing international peace and security.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the international nuclear arms control treaty system has received a certain impact. In February 2023, the Russian President announced the suspension of the New START Treaty. After the U.S.-Russia INF Treaty expired in 2019, the treaty became the only effective arms control treaty between the two countries. Shortly after Russia announced that it was suspending the treaty, the United States announced that it would stop exchanging detailed data with Russia on its nuclear weapons stockpile. To ensure that the two sides actively implement the New START treaty, the United States and Russia need to exchange data twice a year on the number of nuclear weapons stockpiles, including nuclear warheads, ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, and other delivery vehicles for launching nuclear bombs. As the United States stops exchanging nuclear weapons stockpile data with Russia, nuclear arms control negotiations and dialogue between the two sides will come to a standstill, negatively impacting global nuclear security and stability. In November, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law revoking ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Although the agreement never entered into force, its revocation as an important part of the nuclear arms control system would undoubtedly make the global nuclear security situation more volatile. It is foreseeable that in the future, with the suspension of the implementation of arms control treaties between the two sides, the risk of nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia will be further intensified.
(2) The momentum of nuclear arms control has regressed, and the nuclear arms race has intensified
As nuclear powers, the United States and Russia play a pivotal and leading role in the global nuclear arms control system. However, since 2022, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, US-Russian relations have continued to deteriorate, and the two sides have launched a new round of nuclear weapons competition. The United States, for its part, began to develop new nuclear bombs in order to maintain its total stockpile of nuclear bombs. In October 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that the United States will develop a modern modification of the B61-13 nuclear bomb in the United States. The B61-13 is an upgraded version of the B61-12 nuclear bomb that the U.S. military previously announced has begun mass production, with an increased explosive yield, which will be carried by the B-21 bomber in the future. The US military hopes to replace its aging nuclear weapons stockpile by developing new nuclear bombs such as the B61-12 and B61-13, thereby maintaining its total inventory of nuclear bombs. It is worth noting that the B61-12 and B61-13 are both "actual combat tactical nuclear weapons", and their development shows that the development of US nuclear weapons is changing from the deterrence type of the Cold War to the practical type of today. On the Russian side, in addition to increasing the traditional "triad" nuclear forces such as the "Haiyan" nuclear-powered cruise missile and the RS-28 "Sarmat" intercontinental ballistic missile, since 2022, Russia has also actively promoted the research and development of the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle. Unlike other nuclear weapons, the "Poseidon" is nuclear-powered, can be carried by submarines, and relies on the advantages of large diving depth and high speed to quickly penetrate defenses underwater, and detonate millions of tons of nuclear warheads with a yield of nuclear warheads carried underwater in enemy ports. The Nuclear Posture Review released by the US Department of Defense refers to it as a "new intercontinental nuclear-powered underwater autonomous nuclear torpedo." It is reported that the "Poseidon" nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle will be delivered to the Russian Navy within the framework of the current "2018~2027 State Weapons and Equipment Development Plan".
(3) Non-nuclear states seek to acquire nuclear weapons, and the risk of nuclear proliferation has intensified
Since 2022, the risk of nuclear proliferation has intensified, mainly in the following three aspects. First, the United States, Britain and Australia signed the AUKUS security agreement, which plans to help Australia acquire nuclear submarines. The AUKUS agreement involves the transfer of highly sensitive nuclear material and related technology and equipment, with the aim of helping Australia develop nuclear weapons in a disguised form and make it a nuclear-armed state. In November 2023, the United States further refined the progress of the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia, planning to sell Virginia-class attack submarines to Australia in 2032 and 2035, and a new submarine in 2038. As signatories to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the United States, Britain and Australia will exacerbate the risk of global nuclear proliferation. Second, Japan and South Korea seek to strengthen the "nuclear umbrella" provided by the United States with "nuclear sharing." In the past two years, Japan and South Korea have made one move after another in seeking the "nuclear umbrella" of the United States. Japan's stance on the "three non-nuclear principles" has regressed. At the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in August 2022, Japan deleted the phrase "three non-nuclear principles" from the official document submitted by Japan. At the same time, some politicians in Japan are seeking to break through the "three non-nuclear principles" and realize a "nuclear sharing" similar to that between the United States and its European allies. South Korea reached the Washington Declaration with the United States. The declaration agreed to upgrade the "extended deterrence" provided by the United States to South Korea, agreed that the United States would provide a "nuclear umbrella" to South Korea, and increase the deployment of US strategic assets around the peninsula, including the deployment of strategic nuclear submarines. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol even made remarks such as "if [the North Korean nuclear issue] escalates further, South Korea may deploy tactical nuclear weapons or possess nuclear weapons on its own", which once aroused the international community's concern about nuclear proliferation and regional security and stability. Third, Belarus has revoked its status as a non-nuclear state and deployed nuclear weapons on its territory. In February 2022, the Belarusian government approved the deletion of the clause in the constitution that the country has non-nuclear status, meaning that nuclear weapons can be deployed on the territory of the country. In May 2023, Russia signed a nuclear weapons agreement with Belarus, in which Belarus officially agreed to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of the country. It is worth noting that Russia's deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus comes shortly after Britain supplies Ukraine with depleted uranium shells. A rivalry between the two sides may not only lead to an increased risk of nuclear proliferation, but also a risk of nuclear conflict.
Fourth, global nuclear risks are intensifying
Overall, the current global nuclear arms control system is facing challenges from the expiration of international nuclear arms control treaties, the acceleration of nuclear arms development, and the pursuit of nuclear weapons by non-nuclear countries, which has intensified global nuclear risks. Looking ahead, as the United States and Russia continue to withdraw from the treaty, the mutual supervision and transparency mechanism between the two sides in the field of nuclear arms control will be completely destroyed, which will have a more serious impact on the nuclear arms control system. At the same time, with the development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and hypersonic missiles, there will be a potential impact on nuclear stability to a certain extent. In February 2023, the U.S. Arms Control Association released a report entitled "Assessing Risks to Emerging Military Technologies and Nuclear Stability," which said that the development of artificial intelligence and autonomous weapon systems increases the likelihood of miscalculations, triggering an escalation of nuclear risks. Peace and stability are the common pursuit of the people of the world, and in the complex and ever-changing international situation, all countries should work together to fulfill their international obligations and commitments, and take concrete actions to safeguard the international arms control system and resolutely safeguard global nuclear security and regional stability.
About the Author
Wu Zhixing, Research Office No. 4, International Institute of Technology and Economics, Development Research Center of the State Council
Research interests: situation tracking in the marine and nuclear fields, key core technologies, and cutting-edge technology research
Editor丨Zheng Shi
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