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This session of the people has turned into "egg collectors"? The debt base fluctuates frequently, do you want to stop profits?

This session of the people has turned into "egg collectors"? The debt base fluctuates frequently, do you want to stop profits?

Since 2024, the most IN way to manage money is to "raise the base and collect eggs".

What kind of "base" do you raise, and what kind of "eggs" do you collect?

This is the statistical way of the base people's income on the bond base, an egg is the income of 1 BP, that is, an increase of 0.01% on the day, and a single day rise of multiple BP is called a "dinosaur egg".

Since the beginning of the year, with the dual blessing of liquidity and fundamentals, the bond bull market has continued to deduce, and the people are keen to "count eggs" in the debt base comment area. However, the bond market has also begun to fluctuate frequently recently, and some bond funds with outstanding performance in the early stage have also suffered a net value drawdown.

01 Why has the bond market fluctuated recently?

Why has the bond market fluctuated recently? The most direct reason is the change in market interest rates.

In general, there is an inverse relationship between market interest rates and bond prices. The level of interest rates in the market rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa.

Since March, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has become more volatile, and after falling below the 2.3% mark on March 6 to hit a 22-year low, it has experienced a round of "up-down-back", which has affected the net value of the bond base to fluctuate.

This session of the people has turned into "egg collectors"? The debt base fluctuates frequently, do you want to stop profits?

On the whole, the volatility of the bond market is mainly due to the combined effect of several factors:

February's CPI and import and export data were stronger than expected, driving the recovery of stock market sentiment and strong performance, and the "seesaw effect of stocks and bonds" strengthened.

In March, the central bank carried out a "floor volume" of 10 billion yuan and 3 billion reverse repurchase for many days, sending a certain signal of "capital air defense transfer", which attracted market attention.

In the early stage, the bond market rose significantly, and some institutions have already taken profits and pocketed sentiment, especially ultra-long treasury bonds are more crowded and the proportion of transaction-oriented institutions is relatively high, and the interest rate adjustment triggers institutional selling, which further exacerbates the market amplitude.

After this year's important meeting, the bond market has changed and remained unchanged. Judging from the government work report, the tone of this year is still biased towards "moderate recovery" rather than "strong recovery". In the short term, judging from the current state of economic recovery, there are still no major negative factors in the bond market under the condition that the policy stimulus is generally moderate. However, based on the current reality of low yields in the bond market, the investment cost performance of short- and medium-term varieties will be more advantageous.

But on the whole, on the one hand, the central bank mentioned that there is still room for monetary policy, and the fundamental repair still needs reasonable and loose monetary support, and the bond market will re-game the RRR and interest rate cuts in the second quarter, which will provide a favorable investment environment for the bond market.

02 Can the bond bull market continue?

Guolian Securities believes that under the guidance of easy money expectations, yields are expected to fall further. In addition, the high-frequency data reflects that the fundamentals remain weak, and it will take a long time for the demand side to recover. At present, the bond market fluctuates a lot, mainly due to the rapid rise in the early stage and the strong demand for take-profit orders. If the central bank's monetary policy is further strengthened, it is expected to renew the bond bull.

In the short term, whether it is the support of the private economy, or the resolution of government debt risks, and the escort of the real economy, a relatively comfortable monetary policy environment is still needed.

On the other hand, under the "asset shortage", the probability of continuous adjustment in the bond market is low. The slowdown in economic growth elasticity, the slowdown in demand recovery, the tendency of funds to stay in the financial system, and the promotion of localized bonds, etc., may exacerbate the "asset shortage" in stages. In this context, when there is a certain adjustment in yields, the enthusiasm of institutions to "buy bonds" may be rekindled. (Source: Sinolink Securities)

Overall, it is still worth maintaining optimism about the bond market, as China's economy is shifting from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, the engine and model of economic development are undergoing a profound change, and the gradual decline in bond market yields is a high probability event.

03 Does the bond base need to take profit?

The bond market has accumulated a lot of gains in the early stage, and the recent market fluctuations have also made many investors have the idea of selling and taking profits.

But historically, there is no need to worry too much about the adjustment of the bond market.

From the perspective of income sources, the income of bonds mainly comes from two aspects:

First, coupon income. The essence of a bond is an "IOU", and borrowing money is to pay interest.

Second, capital gains. The market price of a bond is volatile, which means that investors can buy when the price of a bond is low and sell when the price of a bond is high, thus earning "capital gains", that is, the "difference" between buying low and selling high.

Under normal circumstances, as long as the bond is not difficult to pay, there will be no loss when it is held at maturity, and in the long run, coupon income is a straight line with a certain slope upward. Based on this, although the capital gains of bonds may fluctuate up and down, the coupon income is still a trickle, and from the perspective of the medium and long-term pure bond fund index and the short-term pure bond fund index, although the short-term is mixed with small fluctuations, the long-term certainty is still high.

This session of the people has turned into "egg collectors"? The debt base fluctuates frequently, do you want to stop profits?

Data source: Wind, statistical period: 2013/12/31-2023/12/31, the historical performance of the index is not indicative of future performance and does not represent investment advice.

In fact, even in the face of short-term net value drawdown, the fund index will often have a corresponding long-term continuous rise adjustment period after the market shock, and the net value will be repaired relatively quickly. Taking short-term bond funds as an example, statistics on the index trend of the fund from January 2013 to the end of 2022 found that there were four rounds of significant adjustments during the period, which occurred in December 2014, November 2016, May 2020, and November 2022, and the maximum drawdown of the index was 1.05%, 1.23%, 0.76%, and 0.55% respectively, with an average of less than 1%, and the drawdown was relatively controllable.

This session of the people has turned into "egg collectors"? The debt base fluctuates frequently, do you want to stop profits?

Source: Wind, as of 2022/12/31, past performance of the index is not indicative of future performance and does not represent investment advice.

Looking back at the wave of bond market adjustment in 2023, from the perspective of the magnitude and speed of adjustment, the closing price of the China Bond-Composite Net Price Index fell from 104.90 on August 24, 23 to 103.75 on October 24, 40 trading days, down -1.1% in 40 trading days, and the China Bond-Composite Wealth Index considering coupon income also fell by -0.55%. However, despite the market correction, bond funds still generated strong alpha. According to wind data, during the same period, the yield of the short-term bond fund index rose slightly by 0.1%, and the yield of the medium- and long-term bond fund index fell slightly by 0.15%, outperforming the bond index. (Data source: wind,2023/8/24~2023/10/24)

Compared with the ups and downs of the stock market, the performance of the bond market is much calmer, although there are also waves, but the domestic bond market as a whole presents the characteristics of "bears are short and bulls are long".

This session of the people has turned into "egg collectors"? The debt base fluctuates frequently, do you want to stop profits?

It can be seen that the take-profit strategy with the goal of avoiding volatility and locking in returns is not a necessary strategy for long-term investors if there is no need for funds in the short term.

The long-term return of a bond fund stems from the accumulation of each BP.

Of course, this does not mean that investing in bond funds does not need to consider taking profit at all. It may be more reasonable for you to make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and the specific situation of the market.

If the economic recovery process exceeds expectations, the policy direction changes, and the growth rate of bond supply increases, interest rates may rebound rapidly, causing relatively large fluctuations in the bond market. From the perspective of historical risk-return characteristics, the potential risks and returns of long-term bonds are greater than those of short-term bonds. For investors with low risk appetite and don't want to bear too much volatility, they can also pay more attention to short-term bond funds~

Risk Warning:

1. The views in this material are for reference only and are not intended as any legal documents, and all information or opinions expressed in the materials do not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and our company does not make any guarantee for the final operation advice on the content of the materials. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. 2. Before investing in the fund, investors should carefully read the fund's "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other fund legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of the fund, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgment and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently assume investment risks. The fund manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's responsibility" in fund investment, and that investors are responsible for the investment risks caused by the operation of the fund, the fluctuation of the listing and trading price of fund shares and the change in the net value of the fund after the investor makes an investment decision. 3. The past performance of the fund and its net value are not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. The Manager does not guarantee profitability and does not guarantee a minimum return. The market is risky, and you should be cautious when entering the market.

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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5) 3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 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255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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