Even the insurance is about to be broken

The following article comes from the big bowl property market, the author is Huluwa

Source | Big bowl property market

If there is any other financial product in the current market that can compete with the deposit for "security", it is estimated that only insurance remains.

The safety of insurance comes from its rigid payment.

Pursuant to Article 92 of the Insurance Act—

When an insurance company engaged in life insurance business is revoked or declared bankrupt in accordance with the law, the life insurance contract and liability reserve held by it must be transferred to other insurance companies engaged in life insurance business. If not with others

If the insurance company reaches an assignment agreement, the insurance company designated by the insurance regulatory authority of the State Council to operate life insurance business shall accept the transfer. In the process of transferring or being designated by the insurance regulatory authority of the State Council to accept the transfer of the above-mentioned contracts and liability reserves, the legitimate rights and interests of the insured and the beneficiary shall be safeguarded.

To put it simply, if the insurance company you bought goes bankrupt one day, your policy rights and interests will be fully paid by other insurance companies or insurance companies formulated by the state.

The rigid payment of insurance is written into the law.

You buy boldly, and the top is the bottom.

Even deposits must be covered with a "deposit insurance" to ensure the ability to redeem them.

For a long time,

Insurance is always the last safe position in financial products.

What if, I mean just in case,

When did the insurance written into the law just be broken?

1

Break the insurance that you just redeemed.

In the draft Insurance Law, which is currently in the process of being revised, it will be newly proposed:

If the assets of the insurance company to be taken over are insufficient to pay off all debts, or the insurance business is transferred in accordance with the law,

With the approval of the State Council, reasonable changes may be made to the insurance contract.

What do you mean?

In simple terms –

If the insurance company you bought goes bankrupt, there is a possibility that the insurance company that will take over later

Modify some of the terms of your original policy by law.

Take a chestnut.

You bought the annuity insurance of company A, and agreed to an annualized compound interest of 3.2%, but the company went out of business after two years.

According to Article 92 of the Insurance Law before the amendment, -

No matter who takes over (even if no one takes over, the state-designated company will take over), the company B that takes over must implement the agreement in the original policy to the letter: not only to protect the principal, but also to continue to pay you an annualized income of 3.2%.

Once the newly revised draft of the Insurance Law is implemented——

The insurance company that takes over later can modify the terms of your original policy after getting approval: reduce the original 3.2% income to 1%, and even protect the principal and loss.

The law says,

The insurance company is bankrupt, and the insurance has to be redeemed.

Unexpectedly,

The insurance company has not yet collapsed, and the law has been amended first.

Awesome!

If the newly revised Insurance Law is implemented, its impact will be no less than that of the banking industry in 2018.

New regulations on asset management

”。

What is the core of the new asset management regulations?

Break the Gangdu!

All wealth management products do not have capital protection.

When investors who are deeply involved in the financial thunderstorm have not fully learned to "admit if they lose and stand up when they are beaten", and still want to go out and pull banners at every turn, the break of insurance has just come to the roar.

In the bankruptcy package for middle-aged people,

Following the financial thunderstorm, the fall in housing prices, and the stock market, it finally ushered in a new member.

The train of the times throws people up, it is really like a mad dog.

2

The collective decline in the rate of return of the whole society.

Why should the "Insurance Law" be amended?

The Internet is full of conspiracy theories: maybe a big insurance company is going to have a problem again!

Pave the road in advance first, and then prepare a good suona.

In order to confirm this set of rhetoric, we also matched a complete set of data -

According to Caixin's estimated data, there are at least 600 billion high-risk assets in the insurance industry.

Among the 92 life insurance companies in the country,

Already, 16 have failed to disclose on time

solvency

Data or rating results.

In a sense, the above companies have been included in the list of "problem companies".

To paraphrase a jargon in our real estate industry: half of their feet have stepped into the "insurance company".

On the matter of green paint of old cucumbers, it has to be a real estate big brother who has eaten and seen.

We can't say thunder, we have to call it dangerous.

Judging from the above data alone, it seems that the draft amendment to the Insurance Law does have the meaning of "taking precautions".

But if you really think so, the road will be narrow!

The essence of the revision of the Insurance Law is derived from the benefits of the whole society

rate of the collective downward.

Let's listen to Brother Wa give you an analysis.

Where to start?

Let's start with the insurance company grabbing customers——

I still remember that three or four years ago, major insurance companies were pushing all kinds of annuity insurance/savings insurance, and each gave higher interest than the other. The essence of these annuity insurance and savings insurance is a bit similar to saving money. It is the same as a deposit, but the interest rate is higher than that of a deposit.

How high is the interest?

At its peak, the agreed interest rate was 4.2%-4.3%, but was later forced to 3.5%.

Other words

The average cost of funds collected by insurance companies is 3.5%-4%, and if a series of costs such as channel commissions/advertising/operation/salaries are added, the comprehensive cost should be at least about 6%.

Remember today's first set of numbers:

The financing cost of the liability side of the insurance company is about 5%-6% per annum.

As an insurance company, what are the prerequisites for not losing money?

You have to invest, you have to invest the money you have raised!

The money invested should not only be recovered, but also have a comprehensive rate of return of more than 6%.

Looking at the whole industry, who can afford to pay more than 6% interest and have a large-scale capital demand?

The first thing that comes to mind is who shouts its name!

Real Estate Developers!

Back seven or eight years ago, insurance capital was either hunting for real estate stocks, or directly investing in specific real estate projects...... Yao Zhenhua of Qianhai Life Insurance can withstand the infamy of "barbarian who sells vegetables", and he will also become Vanke.

Why?

The real estate industry back then was really profitable!

It's a pity –

In the past two years, our industry has indeed been unsuccessful. It's a thunderstorm again, a price reduction tide, a lying flat tide, and one tide after another. The insurance masters didn't make any money, and they also got a foot in the mud.

Vanke was mired in a debt turmoil, and Mr. Yao's Qianhai Life Insurance was directly "gone".

Since real estate is not competitive, what investment directions are left?

1. Fixed income products!

For example, treasury bonds, corporate bonds, urban investment bonds, and bank deposits!

It's a pity –

In the past two years, economic growth has also slowed down, and market interest rates have been declining.

The yield on 30-year government bonds fell below 2.5%, and the yield on urban investment bonds fell below 3%. High-interest agreement deposits are not allowed, and only large ordinary deposits with interest rates around 4% are left.

2. Stock fund products!

Like these things, high volatility is superimposed on high risk, and the proportion of insurance companies itself is relatively low.

In addition, the fund has lost money in the past two years, and the comprehensive rate of return is naturally not too high.

To sum up the above,

Remember today's second set of numbers:

The rate of return on the asset side of the insurance company is about 4% per annum.

It's not like I'm talking nonsense, but it's coming from various listed insurance companies.

The financing cost of the liability side of the insurance company is 6%, and the return on investment on the asset side is 4%, and the third set of figures today is also out:

The insurer's spread loss is about 2%.

The so-called interest margin loss is a loss.

Insurance companies have to pay a fixed loss of 2% on interest margins every year, not including shareholder dividends, employee salaries and operating costs.

It has been said that

According to your algorithm, the insurance company should have gone out of business a long time ago.

Why is it only now?

Because the economic growth rate was relatively fast in the early years, all walks of life could make some money, and the average rate of return of the whole society was relatively high. In addition, in the past, the shortage of funds was much greater than the shortage of assets, the scale of investment in the whole society was relatively high, there was a shortage of money everywhere, and the interest rate level was relatively high......

Insurance companies bought a lot of high-interest assets that year, supporting its profits.

How long is the average return duration of these high-paying assets?

6 years!

Insurance companies can also enjoy high interest returns on past investments for up to 6 years!

And what is the average duration of an insurance company's liabilities?

12 years!

The high-interest policy that the insurance company needs to pay will last for 12 years!

With the gradual maturity of high-interest assets purchased in history, major insurance companies can only bear up to 6% of the financing costs, buying only 2.5% of the yield of treasury bonds and less than 4% of the yield of bank deposits......

A hard loss of more than 2% every year, slowly boiling.

Although it will not go bankrupt immediately, it will be on the road after all!

What to do?

Only by reducing the financing cost of up to 6% on the liability side of insurance companies!

How to drop?

The policy contract has been signed, and the legal protection has just been redeemed, and it is necessary to pay such a high interest to the customer every year.

or

Let's revise the law?

Break the Gangdu!

In particular, first break the rigid redemption of the insurance company, change the terms of their customers' insurance policies, reduce the agreed interest, and reduce the cost of funds on the liability side......

At this point, you should be clear.

The nature of the insurer's troubles,

It is the decline in the rate of return of the whole society, and I don't make any money before.

Revise the essence of the draft Insurance Law,

It is to let the insurance company, which is losing money year by year, survive and not cause systemic risks.

3

It's hard to tell the pain.

And then go down to the front,

The essence of the predicament of insurance companies is the decline in the rate of return of the whole society after the economic growth slowdown. However, the money raised in the early years also occurred during the period of rapid economic growth, and the cost of thieves was high.

Come and go, and it's set up here.

If you think about it, the same is true of the bank's problem.

On the one hand, the growth rate is slowing down, in order to stimulate investment and demand, the central mother has lowered the loan interest rate one by one, and the money cannot be released. On the other hand, in the early years, banks agreed on higher deposit interest rates in advance in order to attract savings.

Coming and going, it is also set up here.

In the jargon of engaging in finance, this is called interest rate spread loss.

When do spread losses most often occur?

The turning point of the economy from medium-to-high speed to medium-to-low speed.

For example, Japan in the 90s.

Honestly, Japan is such an interesting country. The problems it had in the 90s are now being projected onto us.

The "balance sheet recession" discussed by the whole network some time ago originated in Japan.

The "spread loss" that Chinese insurance companies are experiencing today also appeared in Japan in the 90s.

Japan in the 80s was soaring.

The Nikkei index has reached its highest point, housing prices in Tokyo have also reached its highest point, and the sentiment of going overseas to buy and buy has reached the highest point. Everything is profitable, everyone wants to invest, and the rate of return of the whole society is pulled to the explosion.

For Japanese insurance companies at the time-

Giving high interest rates is the premise for all products to be sold.

The interest rate is not high enough, and whoever buys your life insurance is better than speculating in stocks.

Between 1985 and 1990, Nissan Life's life insurance (10-year long-term policy) offered a predetermined interest rate of up to 6%.

This is still a large company, and other small companies give higher interest, and some even dare to give 9%.

Life insurance with an annualized return of 9%!

Friends, do you dare to think?

And then......

The financial crisis came, the real estate bubble burst, and the Nikkei stock average went from 38,915 to 7,607.

The rooftops of Tokyo are full of people.

In order to cope with the economic downturn, the book lowered interest rates all the way. In 2001, the interest rate on one-year fixed deposits was reduced to 0.25 per cent.

The insurance company is directly cracked!

6-9 points of borrowed money, buy stocks and stock market crashes, buy real estate disasters, deposit bank zero interest rate...... Despair, dead despair.

Conservative insurance companies such as Nissan Life have gone bankrupt.

Activist insurers such as Daiwa Life have bypassed regulation and bought a bunch of high-risk, high-yield financial products.

And then......

Thundered, and also bankrupt.

You ask me, how did the book deal with this insurance crisis?

I can't take care of it, I can't take care of it at all!

The rooftop is full of people!

Japan's financial regulator also amended the Insurance Law to allow for a reduction in the predetermined interest rate in the original policy contract.

That's it?

That's it!

Again,

I can't take care of it, I can't take care of it at all!

The rooftop is full of people!

To borrow a phrase from Ms. Eileen Chang, the economy is like a gorgeous robe, crawling with lice and fleas.

Only after the stall, the robes were torn and fleas crawled all over the ground.

4

A few final words.

First, on the importance of development.

It has only been nearly two years before everyone finally realizes the importance of growth. Only through development can we solve the problems that arise in the course of development.

Seeking quality over quantity, putting the growth rate aside, and first adjusting the structure and distribution are all deceitful nonsense.

As long as the growth rate suddenly drops,

All the problems masked by the high growth will erupt in a concentrated manner.

At that time, it was that sentence -

I can't take care of it, I can't take care of it at all!

The rooftop is full of people!

Even the insurance that is as safe as the deposit can be broken and just redeemed, what else is eternal?

Second, the old ways for the old and the new rules for the newcomers.

Maybe after reading this article, you will be very anxious:

Once the revised "Insurance Law" is implemented, and the redemption is really broken, is the policy in my hand unsafe?

Rest assured!

Based on my own past experience and understanding of the regulatory system with Chinese characteristics -

For policies that have been sold today, it is unlikely that the terms of the contract will be adjusted.

Assuming that it really needs to be adjusted, it is also for the policy after the implementation of the relevant rules of the new Insurance Law.

naturally

The above only represents my own judgment, which is neither authoritative nor official, nor has the right of final interpretation, only based on personal experience.

Third, lower earnings expectations.

Chairman Guo, the former point, there is a famous saying——

If the income of wealth management products exceeds 6%, it is already dangerous if it exceeds 8%, and if it exceeds 10%, it is necessary to be prepared to lose all the principal.

With the decline in the rate of return of the whole society, this famous saying may have to be adjusted-

If the income of wealth management products exceeds 5%, it is already dangerous, and if it exceeds 8%, it is ready to lose all the principal.

Even insurance may break the rigid redemption, and we have to keep pace with the times.

Fourth......

Well, there's no fourth.

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#06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: ;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 81, #007dbb;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(0, 125, 187, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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.6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body: not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark], body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and 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