The era of unlimited purchases is coming!

Author: Yu Fei

On March 25, a number of authoritative media broke the news that there will be a big move in the purchase restriction in first-tier cities.

Brokerage China, Finance Associated Press, and Yicai all disclosed:

There are market rumors that real estate-related documents will be issued soon, which will focus on two directions: one is to fully cancel the restrictive policies in core cities, and the other is to promote the implementation of the financing coordination mechanism. According to the reporter's understanding from the industry, the purchase restriction policy in non-core areas of first-tier cities may be canceled, but it may still be in the research stage. And the financing coordination mechanism is being implemented.

Up to now, the official has not been committal about this rumor, there is no proof, and there is no falsification.

In our opinion, the credibility is still very large. This means that an era of unlimited purchases is coming.

In fact, this number made a conjecture in the article at the beginning of this year:

The cancellation of purchase restrictions is the general trend.

The full lifting of purchase restrictions in second-tier cities will basically be achieved in 2024. As for the first-tier cities, Guangzhou may be ahead of schedule. The pace of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen will be slower. First of all, the outer areas lowered the threshold for purchase restrictions, compressed social security requirements, and then canceled the purchase restrictions. After that, the number of years of social security requirements in the core area will also be compressed. The purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will not be so fast, and it may have to wait until the scale of affordable housing supply comes up.

In 2024, Suzhou will become the first city to take the lead in lifting purchase restrictions in its entirety. Last year, Suzhou was basically stripped naked, but the area limit was still retained.

On January 31 this year, Suzhou announced that it would no longer review the qualifications for buying a house, and there would be no restrictions on the area and number of units.

After that, Hangzhou lifted all the restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses, and the lifting of the restrictions on the purchase of new houses is also on the way.

In the past three years, many cities have lifted purchase restrictions altogether. For example, Dongguan, Foshan, Nanchang, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Xiamen, Hefei, Nanjing, Suzhou, Ningbo, Shenyang, Dalian, Wuhan, etc.

Among them, Wuhan has become the first megacity to completely cancel purchase restrictions in addition to Chongqing, which has no purchase restrictions.

Of course, Dongguan is also a megacity, but when it canceled the purchase restriction, it was still a megacity, and it was promoted to a megacity after the purchase restriction was canceled.

At present, among the second-tier cities, only a few cities such as Chengdu, Xi'an, Changsha and Hangzhou have not fully lifted the purchase restrictions.

In Changsha, only the requirements for the purchase certificate of the first home were relaxed last year. There is no relaxation of the restrictions on the number of units to be purchased. According to Changsha's policy of limiting the number of units to be purchased, households with household registration can purchase a maximum of two sets, and non-registered households can only purchase one set.

In Xi'an, all purchase restrictions outside the second ring road have been lifted, and the second ring road has been retained.

In Chengdu, Sichuan Tianfu New Area directly administered area, Chengdu High-tech Zone Southern Park, Jinjiang District, Qingyang District, Jinniu District, Wuhou District, and Chenghua District continue to implement housing purchase restrictions, unified into one purchase restriction area. Other areas will no longer review the qualifications for home purchases. Within the scope of the restricted area, the purchase of housing of more than 144 square meters (excluding 144 square meters) will no longer be reviewed to better meet the needs of residents for improved housing.

In Hangzhou, there is no restriction on the purchase of second-hand houses. The purchase of new houses remains restricted, but the purchase restriction area was greatly reduced to Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, West Lake District, and Binjiang District last year.

Among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou is the city with the greatest relaxation of purchase restrictions. Last year, Guangzhou canceled the purchase restrictions in Panyu, Huangpu, Huadu and Jianggao Town, Taihe Town, Renhe Town, and Zhongluotan Town in Baiyun District. and reduce the social security threshold from 5 years to 2 years in the restricted area.

On January 27 this year, Guangzhou was further relaxed, and the whole of Guangzhou, housing with a construction area of more than 120 square meters (new house + second-hand) is not limited to purchase!

In Shenzhen, the purchase restrictions of the Shenzhen-Shantou Cooperation Zone were lifted last year.

Beijing and Shanghai also loosened slightly, but they were all individual sectors. Among them, Shanghai is slightly stronger.

In January this year, Shanghai's Qingpu and Fengxian districts lowered the social security threshold for non-registered residents to buy a house, from five years to three years.

It's time to cancel these cumbersome policies.

This number has long called for not only the cancellation of purchase restrictions, but also the purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, sales restrictions, price restrictions, and business restrictions in the last round of regulation and control cycles.

Because:

First, it prevents the market from self-adjusting and self-recovering functions.

Second, it is out of date and has lost its meaning.

Because whether it is a price limit for the purpose of limiting the rise, or a price limit for the purpose of preventing the fall, it has failed to achieve the goal, but has made things worse and worse.

The price limit has created a difference between scissors and second-hand scissors, widened profit margins, and artificially created a more rural speculation demand.

The lottery is to artificially create a tense atmosphere.

The superposition of the limit price and the lottery not only did not cool the market, but accelerated the market price increase. Since 2016, Xi'an, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Nanjing, Shenzhen and other cities have staged hundreds of thousands of people to grab houses and thousands of people to grab houses.

At the same time, the original intention of the fall limit order is to prevent the emergence of systemic risks and prevent the market from overcooling, which will affect the income from land sales.

However, under the test of time, it was found that nothing could stop the fall limit, and the house price was still falling. What's more serious is that restricting the decline in housing prices interferes with the normal collection of real estate enterprises, which has exacerbated the thunderstorm of real estate enterprises, exacerbated the situation of market problem real estate, and aggravated the situation of diving income from land sales.

All in all, with the recent official non-committal rumors, an era of unlimited purchases may be coming.

It is mainly manifested in the following forms:

First, non-first-tier cities have lifted all kinds of restrictions.

Second, first-tier cities will be phased out from the outside in.

The route of this number to the conjecture of the gradual cancellation of purchase restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is as follows:

In Guangzhou, as the purchase restrictions in the peripheral areas have basically been lifted, Nansha and Baiyun will be lifted in the future, and the four core areas of Haizhu, Tianhe, Yuexiu and Liwan may continue to reduce social security to one year or even half a year, and finally completely cancel the purchase restrictions.

In Shenzhen, the purchase restrictions in Nanshan, Futian, Luohu and Daqianhai including Bao'an will be retained, and the rest will be lifted, and the social security period may be reduced from five years to two years.

In Shanghai, the seven core areas of Huangpu District, Xuhui District, Changning District, Jing'an District, Putuo District, Hongkou District and Yangpu District will be retained, and the rest may all be lifted.

In Beijing, the core areas of Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Haidian, Shijingshan, Fengtai and Tongzhou will be retained, and the rest will be lifted.