文 | 犀牛娱乐，作者 | 小福，编辑｜朴芳
This morning, two more films were officially announced for May Day. So far, the May Day file, which is still more than a month away, has squeezed in 8 new films, and the number is even comparable to the situation of this year's Spring Festival file. For a medium-sized schedule with only five days in length, these nearly ten films are enough to saturate the battle, not to mention that there may be sporadic films to continue to join in the future.
In the face of the huge diversion of tourism and the performance industry, can the May 1st gear, which is trying to repeat the tactics of the film sea, successfully break out of the encirclement?
There is still more than a month, and the May Day stall is about to be full
The length of the May Day stall is generally between 3-5 days, and the market capacity is slightly larger than that of the ordinary three-day public holiday, but it is far lower than the large-scale schedule of the Spring Festival and National Day stalls. As a film schedule, May Day is very suitable for accommodating some projects with appropriate size and certain market potential, and it is also quite friendly to many types of imported films.
For example, on May Day in 2021, which set a box office record, two masterpieces "Your Wedding" and "On the Cliff" ran out during the 5-day schedule, and the cumulative box office of the latter finally exceeded the 1 billion yuan mark.
Of course, there are some exceptions. In 2019, which is still the runner-up at the May 1st box office, the cumulative box office in the 4 days of the holiday is 1.527 billion yuan, of which only the schedule champion "Avengers 4" contributed more than 1.2 billion box office, forming a complete crushing situation for other films in the same period.
And the May Day file in 2023, which created the third in history, has given the May 1st file a new feature of "involution". In the 5-day holiday last year, which was not long or short, more than a dozen films were squeezed in, and only 9 key films with a certain appeal were watched. The overcrowding has caused the uneven distribution of schedules, except for the leading two films "Unfamiliar with Life" and "King of the Sky", the remaining films have mediocre performance, which can hardly be said to be excellent.
There is only one and countless times to get together - this year's May Day, this trend seems to have been verified. There is still more than a month left, and the number of new films scheduled for May Day has reached 8, not counting the two projects with weaker quality, there are as many as 6. For a schedule that only has 5 days and may encounter the diversion of entertainment, such as tourism and performances, this year's May Day schedule is quite saturated.
(Data as of 21:00 on March 22, 2024)
Among the current 6 key films on May Day, live-action movies and animated films account for half of each.
In terms of live-action movies, "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Squad", which was officially announced today to be released on May 1, is the first commercial blockbuster focusing on overseas peacekeeping, and it is also the only action blockbuster currently on May Day this year. The film has been filmed as early as 2021, but due to the adjustment of the leading cast and content, it was not officially finalized until this year.
However, it is also due to the "backlog" attribute of this film, which easily leads the films of the same period in terms of pre-release data, and the number of people who want to watch "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team" on the dual platforms exceeds 800,000, which is the most popular film on May Day.
"There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot", which gathers star actors such as Yang Mi, Yu Qian, and Tian Yu, is also a member of the head camp of May 1st. The film is a new work launched by Ding Sheng, director of "SWAT Team", after five years, which was earlier scheduled for mid-January, and then decided to change the file to May Day.
"There is nothing that can't be solved by a hot pot" tells the story of four people who don't know each other sharing the spoils in the backstage warehouse of the theater, and accidentally involve a murder case, which later triggers a series of reversals of greed and deception. In terms of genre, it combines comedy elements with the script killing suspense that has emerged in the past two years, plus the blessing of a group of eye-catching actors, if the quality of the film is passable, it may be able to perform well in the schedule.
The role of the orthodox comedy on May 1st falls on the shoulders of "Spending Money at the End of the Road" starring Jia Bing, Tan Zhuo, and Xiao Shenyang. Last year, "Unfamiliar with Life", which was also a comedy, counterattacked and overtook on May Day, relying on the quality of content and the genre of comedy to stand out and become the schedule champion. However, this year's "Spending Money at the End of the Road" is slightly weaker in comparison.
The film tells the story of Jia Youwei, who has achieved nothing in middle age, was diagnosed with a brain tumor and only had ten days to live, so he sold the old house that was rumored to be demolished and decided to enjoy it in the last ten days of his life. Just looking at the cast and content introduction of the film, the market appeal of the film may be relatively limited, and more hope will be placed on the advantages of the subject matter itself in the market.
In terms of animation, it has become the home of Japanese animated films.
Hayao Miyazaki's classic "Howl's Moving Castle" will start on April 30 for May 1st. The film is a masterpiece of Hayao Miyazaki, which is second only to "Spirited Away" in China, and this year coincides with the 20th anniversary of the film's release.
At the same time, considering the schedule selection of "Howl's Moving Castle", it happens to be able to continue the popularity of Hayao Miyazaki's new work "What kind of life do you want to live", which can bring additional bonuses to this film to the May Day file to a certain extent.
Another Japanese animated film "Spy Playing House Codename: White", which was introduced at the same time, is a popular new family carnival IP in Japan in the past two years. The film was released in Japan at the end of last year and has not yet been streamed. And the IP also has a good basic disk in China, or can have a good performance in the May 1st file.
Finally, there is the only domestic animated film in the schedule, "Pig Man Movie: Interstellar Operation". The incremental space of the film itself is relatively limited, and more will come from the rigid demand of the young IP market. The previous work "New Pig Man Movie Super Racing", which was released in the same period last year, has won more than 50 million yuan at the box office, and if it can maintain the level of the previous work, it is already the best result of the film.
There are many monks and little porridge, and the heat is difficult to make
The biggest difference from last year's May Day is that there are no large-scale projects entering the market around this year's May Day. On the one hand, there is a lot less external pressure on the new May Day films, assuming that the quality and popularity of the film are appropriate, there will be a more considerable market space. But on the other hand, the flat market in the cold period is actually not conducive to the new film to complete the early stage of building momentum faster, and it is not good news to announce it in the early stage of May Day.
And what makes it even more difficult for us to remain optimistic about the prospects of May 1st is that, on the whole, the market potential of these May 1st finalized films is still relatively limited.
or because it has not yet entered the intensive publicity stage, the films currently scheduled for May Day have not yet shown strong early popularity. Among the new films, "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team", which was officially announced at the latest, relied on the fan base of Huang Jingyu, Wang Yibo and other starring actors, and was far ahead in popularity.
And the fact that it is released in a bunch will also cause the heat and market space of each film in the schedule to be compressed.
According to past market experience, in a medium-sized schedule like this year's May Day, there may only be two or three projects that can achieve profitability. May 1st seems to have enough time and large capacity, but once the quality and volume of multiple films fall behind, it will immediately cause huge market differentiation, and even lead to the decline of the entire market.
Of course, the good thing is that although this year's May Day file cannot avoid crowding, at least it is diverse enough in terms of film genres, and there is no excessive overlap of film themes at present, which is more conducive to differentiated competition. In the next month or so, the new films still have enough time to promote and pave the way for popularity.
In addition, it is also reported that the new film "Little Me" directed by "Mom!" directed by Yang Lina and starring Yi Yang Qianxi and "My Sister" directed by Yin Ruoxin and starring Wang Junkai "Wild Child" may also choose to meet the audience on May Day. If these films with more quality potential can be stationed, I am afraid that this May Day file will be more reassuring to the majority of practitioners.