After the rebound, how will the A-share market go?

The following article comes from Teaching You to Dig the Base, the author Dig the Base

After the "Jedi counterattack" in February, the recovery of the A-share market seems to be continuing in March.

The Shanghai Composite Index returned from 3,000 to 3,000 points

，

Three months passed

It seems to be short and long, but the twists and turns and ups and downs in between can only be truly felt by those investors who are in the middle of it.

How far has the current market gone and where will it go? This article reviews the insights and views of ChinaAMC's strategy on the current equity market, and talks about the changes and changes between the unpredictable.

1►

What are the "changes" in the current market?

The "inertia" of change –

The "panic" subsided, and the market returned to normal trading logic

From January 26 to February 6, small and micro cap stocks suffered a "liquidity" storm and fell sharply, while the value of the large cap, which is already anti-volatility, has performed relatively strongly with the help of some long-term funds. Since 7 February, the liquidity problem in the market has eased, and small and micro cap stocks have ushered in a recovery from the overshoot, and the value of the large cap has continued to rise well during the year, but the rally has slowed as the margin of incremental funds has decreased.

After the "crisis", the large and small markets regained the medium-term trend since March 2023, the structure was volatile, and the A-share market finally came out of the wind and rain of the 4,000 stocks that frequently appeared before, and ushered in a gentle drizzle. The market's response to the good news began to become flexible, and the rational optimism of three or four thousand companies rising together from time to time was restored.

(Data source: Choice, China Asset Management, statistics as of 2024/2/27, no investment recommendation)

The "kinetic energy" of change –

The rebound based solely on overshoots may gradually come to an end

Up to now, most broad-based indices have returned to positive gains during the year, the CSI 500 and ChiNext indexes, which had fallen significantly in the early stage, have recovered their losses, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 has turned into a slight decline.

Over the past two months, the major broad-based indices have experienced a rather dramatic ups and downs. Fortunately, in this round of rebound, nearly 20% of the decline has been repaired and healed, and the structure is basically in line with the characteristics of more rebounds in the direction of the decline.

(Data source: Choice, China Asset Management, statistics as of 2024/2/27, no investment recommendation)

The market outlook may depend on the repair of fundamentals and the verification and development of new narrative logic. There are still three major indicators to pay attention to in the reversal of fundamentals: whether real estate is stabilizing, whether corporate earnings have bottomed out, and whether PPI can turn positive?

Although there is a high probability of positive changes in these three areas during the year, it remains to be seen in the first quarter. While maintaining the optimism of the general trend throughout the year, volatility may be the main theme of the market in the next 1-2 months.

The "center of gravity" of change -

The two sessions "boots landed", but a new focus is emerging

The two sessions of the National People's Congress ended successfully, the policy orientation continued the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference, although at the aggregate level, the phased expectations of the policy came to an end, but the new highlights that emerged in the government work report, especially the significant improvement of scientific and technological content and "accelerating the development of new quality productivity" as the primary task of the annual work, undoubtedly injected new vitality into the market.

Over the years, the key industrial policies emphasized by the two sessions have always aroused the enthusiasm of thematic investment, and it is now advisable to pay attention to the cohesion brought by the direction of big technology.

(Data source: Choice, China Asset Management, statistics as of 2024/2/27, no investment recommendation)

The "flow direction" of change –

There is a rebalancing of financial flows from a global perspective

The recent sharp net inflow of northbound funds has become a striking signal that the global capital movement, which has lasted for nearly a year, is undergoing a subtle reversal. Several types of assets that have been popular with global capital, such as Japanese stocks and gold, have all rebounded last week, while China's core assets, represented by large-cap growth stocks and the Mao index, have begun to emerge.

In February, the northbound capital inflow was 60.7 billion yuan, setting a new high in the past 13 months, and FTSE Russell increased the inclusion factor of the newly transferred A-shares after the expansion of the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect in September 2023 from 12.5% to 25%, and carried out the index rebalancing on March 15, and the northbound once again had a significant net inflow of 38.8 billion yuan during the period from March 8 to March 15. (Source: Haitong Securities Research Institute, "Recent Observation of the Capital Side, Who is Increasing Positions?", release time: 2024/3/16, no investment recommendation)

Further dismantling of the structure shows that the main funds that entered the market from January to February 24 were Chinese-funded custody funds, and since February, the rest of the foreign capital has begun to gradually return to the market. Although the sustainability of the subsequent northbound capital inflow remains to be observed, in the general direction, the beta of the market upward this year is still expected to come from the opening of dollar spillover after the Fed cut interest rates.

(Image source: Haitong Securities Research Institute, "Recent Observation of the Capital Side, Who is Increasing Positions?", release time: 2024/3/16, no investment recommendation)

2►

What is "unchanged" in the current market?

What hasn't changed is that-

The policy cares for the market, "the original intention does not change"

On March 15, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a press conference to make a heavy statement and issue four documents at the same time:

The "Opinions on Strictly Controlling the Access to Issuance and Listing and Improving the Quality of Listed Companies from the Source (for Trial Implementation)" improves the quality of listed companies from the source, strengthens the supervision of the issuance and listing activities of enterprises, and consolidates the responsibilities of all relevant parties in the whole chain of issuance supervision;

The "Opinions on Strengthening the Supervision of Listed Companies (Trial)" proposes 18 measures in four aspects: "strengthening the supervision of information disclosure and severely punishing performance fraud", "preventing detours and reducing holdings", "strengthening the supervision of cash dividends", and "promoting listed companies to strengthen market value management";

The "Opinions on Strengthening the Supervision of Securities Companies and Public Funds and Accelerating the Construction of First-class Investment Banks and Investment Institutions (for Trial Implementation)" promotes the improvement of institutional professional service capabilities and regulatory efficiency;

The "Opinions on Implementing the Standards of Politically Competent, Competent, and Style-based, and Comprehensively Strengthening the Self-Construction of the CSRC System" puts forward policy measures for the self-construction of the CSRC system.

(Source: CICC)

A series of documents have been released in full swing, which will help further improve the basic system of the mainland's capital market and "enhance the internal stability of the capital market", which will boost investor confidence. These measures echo the spirit conveyed by the recent Central Financial Work Conference, the Central Economic Work Conference and the Two Sessions, and this round is indeed rare in history when the policy gives a clear signal for the continuous optimization of the A-share ecosystem.

What hasn't changed is that-

Valuations are still cheap at the moment

From the chart below, we can gain a mild truth: the price-to-earnings (P/E) and TTM quantiles of the major broad-based A-share indices are all in the "undervalued" or "undervalued" zone, and even the SSE 50, which has relatively high quantiles in the past 5 and 10 years, is still some distance from the historical center.

Although the current A-share market has recovered from the extreme regional valuation in early February, it is not "expensive" in any case, and it is still in the long-term "promising" area. For medium- and long-term cultivators, the current "soil" is still fertile, and there is still enough space to take root and sprout.

(Source: Chocie, as of 2024-3-15.) Note: If the index is released for less than 5 years/10 years, all historical data will be used and no investment recommendation will be made)

What hasn't changed is that-

We are still in a high-odds market environment

From 2021 to 2023, the valuation contraction caused by the sharp decline in risk appetite in the A-share market has lasted for three years, which has exceeded the longest consecutive valuation contraction set in 2016-2018.

 (Source: Chocie, China AMC, statistical period: 2009/1/1~2023/12/31, no investment recommendation)

What is ignored behind the continuous valuation contraction is that from 2021 to 2023, Wind A's annual net profit attributable to the parent company has increased from 4.8 trillion yuan to 5.8 trillion yuan (note: the 2023 data comes from Wind's consensus expectations). After the spring of valuation contraction has been compressed to the extreme, the future valuation expansion market may be late but not absent. (Data source: Choice, not an investment recommendation)

3►

Between change and change, how do investors respond?

Strategically, follow the trend and pay attention to the trend behind the change.

At the short-term level, the value style represented by the dividend index has accumulated rich excess returns in the early stage of this round of decline and rebound, making the value style undoubtedly occupy an overwhelming advantage in the time dimension of the quarter.

However, it should be noted that in the past month, the growth style has returned to the field of vision, especially the TMT, which is supported by the promotion of the overseas AI industry, and the new energy, which is catalyzed by multiple news, has gradually ushered in a "counterattack" and is in the limelight.

(Data source: Choice, China Asset Management, statistics as of 2024/2/27, no investment recommendation)

Since 2024, the market has still shown a certain characteristic of "looking at reality without looking at expectations", which corresponds to the dominance of dividend assets, but it is necessary to pay attention to the current congestion of stable dividend targets and the risk of short-term fluctuations.

On the basis of the research and judgment of maintaining the market outlook structure before the cycle and then growth, the direction of dividend excess return based on the consideration of profit stability is expected to spread. At the same time, the cyclical direction related to manufacturing investment should still be emphasized, while the growth direction should pay more attention to the direction of new energy vehicles at the end of the capacity expansion cycle and the producer service sector.

Overall, in the short term, you may want to focus on:

Bonus style: coal, bank, white electricity

Cycle Style: Aviation, Industrial Metals, Oil Transportation

Growth style: new energy vehicles, AI

Tactically, ignore the noise and multi-configuration, so as to respond to all changes.

From 3,000 points back to 3,000 points, along the way, changes are always happening. Emotions will change, people's hearts will change, what remains unchanged is that there is no stock that only rises and does not fall, and there is no market that only falls but does not rise, and the bull and bear switch will always appear again and again like the alternation of the sun and the moon.

Since the correction in 2021, many assets have fallen for nearly three consecutive years, becoming low-priced chips, and the probability of another "bear" year seems to be much lower than the probability of an upside. After all, the real market is anchored by valuations, not by grand narratives, transient emotions, transient price swings, and momentary event shocks.

When we have gone through huge fluctuations and long clearances, when all kinds of analysis, various indicators, and all kinds of performance are vaguely revealing that a new beginning is slowly unfolding in shaking and collision, what we must do together:

One is to manage emotions. The more anxious you are to get back to your roots, the more you need to stay calm and avoid jumping sideways from side to side. There is no eternal king in the stock market, let alone an eternal loser, feng shui takes turns, as long as the investment logic is still there, there will always be a bright time. The more difficult it is, the more it is time to cultivate the mind.

The second is rational allocation. "No one is good for a thousand days, and no flower is red for a hundred days", the truth is to tell us to do a good job in the allocation between markets, assets, and themes, protect ourselves at one end, and spread hope at the other end.

Speaking of this today, I wish you all smooth investment and financial management~

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