杨德龙 | 立方大家谈专栏作者
The Federal Reserve announced that the policy rate will remain unchanged at the March interest rate meeting, in line with market expectations, the reason why the Federal Reserve now chooses to stand still and maintain the interest rate level of 5.25%~5.5% is mainly because the Fed is now in a dilemma, if the interest rate cut is announced too quickly, it may lead to a resurgence of inflation expectations, making the results of the previous 11 consecutive interest rate hikes in vain. On the other hand, if interest rates remain high for too long, it will also put great pressure on the liabilities of enterprises and residents in the United States, and even lead to the bankruptcy of small and medium-sized banks. Therefore, on the one hand, the Fed chose to stand still, and on the other hand, the chairman of the Fed also said in his statement after the meeting that the policy rate is now at its peak, hinting that it will not raise interest rates again. According to the dot plot, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates three times this year. If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points each time, it will be a 1.5% reduction in interest rates, from the current high level of more than 5% to about 4%, which will form a certain support for the US economy and prevent the economic growth rate from declining too quickly.
If the Fed can announce the first interest rate cut at the May or June interest rate meeting, it will trigger more central banks to follow suit, and the central bank of China will have more policy space to cut interest rates and RRR cuts, so as to better support economic recovery. Once the Fed announces an interest rate cut, the U.S. dollar index will fall back from its highs, pushing non-U.S. currencies including the renminbi to appreciate. In general, the process of RMB appreciation will attract more international capital inflows into RMB assets. This will play a positive role in promoting the rebound of A-shares, Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks. We will also pay close attention to the timing of the Fed's first rate cut and the magnitude of the rate cut.
The Bank of Japan announced a rate hike this week, the first since 2007, officially bidding farewell to the era of negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has set the base interest rate range at 0-0.1%, which is still the lowest level in the world, but the BOJ has bid farewell to the era of negative interest rates and still has a short-term impact on global capital markets. The Japanese stock market retreated from its highs, but instead of appreciating, the yen depreciated somewhat, falling to around 151 against the dollar. This is largely due to the fact that the market has fully anticipated the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, as the level of inflation in Japan has stabilized above 2%. The just-concluded "spring fight", that is, every year in March, Japan's labor and management will negotiate to set an increase, because inflation is now rising, this year the management did not bargain, but agreed to the demands of the union, Japan's largest labor union won about 5% of the wage increase, the largest wage increase in 30 years, so the role of inflation is relatively large. The yen has already seen a round of appreciation before, and now the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, which has caused the yen to fall instead of rising, because it has reacted in advance.
On the one hand, the international situation is still turbulent, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a long-term trend, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has no sign of ending, which makes the Middle East, the world's largest oil exporting region, still have relatively large uncertainties. The extension of the production cut agreement will increase the amount of oil production cuts, which will push up oil prices. This year, international oil prices are likely to be fluctuating at a high level, and the possibility of a downside is not too great. Therefore, judging from the performance of commodities, the trend of oil prices is still relatively strong.
The fluctuation of oil prices is affected by many factors, the most fundamental is the relationship between supply and demand, which is the comparison between oil demand and production. This year, the economic growth rate in Europe and the United States has slowed down, and the demand for oil may decrease, while China's economy has seen a certain recovery, with annual GDP growth of about 5%, which has a certain effect on the demand for oil.
From the perspective of supply, the turbulence of the international situation and local conflicts will affect oil production. OPEC+'s production cuts are a factor that raises oil prices, so these factors make oil prices fluctuate more this year, but they still fluctuate at a high level overall. The A-share market is currently oscillating repeatedly after 3,000 points, but the overall trend has maintained an upward trend. The broader market also hit the 3,100-point integer mark this week, and most sectors rebounded. Leading stocks such as consumption and new energy, which have fallen sharply in the early stage, have shown a strong upward trend this week, especially the performance of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and other sectors is relatively prominent. The valuation repair of high-quality leading stocks is undoubtedly a main line of investment in the Year of the Dragon, some theme stocks are also repeatedly active, driven by AI, some technology sectors have seen a good rebound, following the emergence of ChatGPT last year, OpenAI has launched a video model this year, which has triggered investors' confidence in the AI sector, and the stock price of Nvidia, the leader of AI in the United States, has risen sharply, once approaching Apple, the world's largest market capitalization company, and has also driven the performance of the entire AI sector.
The advent of artificial intelligence may change the way we work and live in the future, and some great companies will emerge in this field. It is worth noting that some of the theme stocks and concept stocks that are now hyped in the A-share market may not have much performance support. Some of them have little to do with AI, so they should be cautious in their investment and choose some companies with core technologies and commercial applications in the future.
From the perspective of economic transformation, consumption, new energy, and technology belong to the three major directions that benefit from economic transformation, and some high-quality companies in these three directions can be deployed on dips. The main investment thread throughout the year is precisely the valuation repair of these high-quality stocks, and this rally is likely to be a major investment opportunity this year. Because the price of many stocks may have been discounted by three or four percent relative to their highs now, it is not necessary to be able to reach a new high this year to get a good valuation repair income.
To do value investment, we should pay attention to the reverse layout, and wait until there is a good company in the market to make a big discount, so that there is a better construction cost, and once the market rises in the future, it will be able to obtain relatively good returns. This year is a big year for value investing, especially the performance of value investment targets will be better than in the past two years. I will go to the United States again on May Day this year to attend the Buffett shareholders' meeting, and I will share Buffett's insights with you for the first time, so that everyone can more firmly believe in value investment and practice value investment. Value investment is a magic weapon to achieve long-term investment victory, especially in the current market long and short divergence is still relatively large, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are in the historical bottom near the position, advocating value investment is more significant, I hope you should maintain confidence and patience at present, the factors supporting the market recovery are accumulating, and the policy is also constantly emerging, which will boost the future performance of the capital market.
责编:任浩鹏 | 审核:李震 | 监审:万军伟