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The renminbi suddenly and sharply depreciated

The renminbi suddenly and sharply depreciated

Finally, the RMB exchange rate began to depreciate, and Hong Kong stocks fell sharply.

On March 22, the RMB exchange rate depreciated suddenly, with both offshore and onshore exchange rates hitting a four-month high.

The trading platform, where the onshore exchange rate broke through 7.2, fell nearly 300 points, and once depreciated by 2.2273 during the session.

The offshore exchange rate broke through the 7.0-7.2 platform, falling nearly 500 points, and once fell below 7.27 during the session.

The renminbi suddenly and sharply depreciated

What's more, the RMB exchange rate has begun to fluctuate!

In the first two or three weeks, the RMB exchange rate was too stable, and from the graph, it was all small K-lines, and there were not too many troughs and peaks, and the fluctuation range was only about 100 points every week.

Compared with before, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated by 200-300 points per day during the stable period.

Today, the RMB exchange rate finally began to fluctuate, and the fluctuation range reached 400 points, which is four times that of the previous one.

In addition, due to the impact of the exchange rate, the stock market has also fallen sharply, especially the Hong Kong stock market.

Among them, the ChiNext fell 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.7%, the ChiNext fell 1.8%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 3%.

What happened to the RMB exchange rate?

1. Market perspective: RMB mid-parity

The central parity of the renminbi depreciated by 62 basis points, the largest in more than a month.

What does this mean?

In the past year, the central parity of the RMB exchange rate has been an important tool for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate.

In the past, when the RMB exchange rate depreciated sharply, the central parity of the RMB was "hard to carry" against the trend, and the deviation from the "theoretical value" was as high as 1,000 points.

At present, the central bank also stabilizes the exchange rate through the middle price, which is the reason for the recent narrow range fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

This is called "control".

Today, although the magnitude of the central parity adjustment and depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is not large, there is still a clear difference compared with the period when the RMB exchange rate lost its volatility.

This adjustment, regardless of the real intentions of the regulators, will be interpreted by the market as perhaps allowing the RMB exchange rate to "depreciate".

As a result, the RMB exchange rate began to depreciate.

2. Policy and sentiment: risk aversion.

Sino-US relations are still one of the important factors affecting market sentiment, any wind and grass, any bad news, the market will be risk-averse, and the RMB exchange rate will depreciate.

Therefore, as long as you see the sudden depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, first search the Internet for the news, whether it is something wrong with the United States.

This sudden depreciation of the exchange rate was no exception.

On Wednesday, March 21 local time, Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana and Rep. Brad Sherman, Democrat of California, proposed four bills.

There are several concerns, the first of which is that this bill is too radical, prohibiting US index mutual funds from investing in Chinese stocks, removing tax incentives on Chinese stocks, and restricting sanctioned companies from accessing US capital markets, etc.

Second, this is a bipartisan bill in the United States, in which both Republicans and Democrats participate, so there is a certain chance of entering the legislative process.

Of course, in the short term, whether it can enter the legislative process or not, as long as this thing happens, it will stimulate the market risk aversion.

As a result, the U.S. dollar index rose and non-U.S. currencies such as the renminbi fell.

Of course, on the one hand, because the RMB was too flat some time ago, the market also has demand to break through the narrow trading range;

On the other hand, China is also one of the protagonists of the incident and is directly affected.

As a result, the renminbi has depreciated more than other currencies.

The renminbi suddenly and sharply depreciated

3. Supply and demand perspective: there is depreciation pressure on the RMB.

Generally speaking, if you want to use economic fundamentals to negotiate the exchange rate, then the time span must be at least 3 years.

Except, of course, news of economic data, which is essentially a shock of emotions.

In the short term, looking at the fundamentals of the currency, it is best to pay attention to liquidity, as it directly affects the supply and demand of money in the market.

What about our monetary policy?

One of the signals that everyone often pays attention to is "interest rate cuts".

Of course, in addition to interest rate cuts, what is more noteworthy is the sharp and record high inflation of central bank balance sheets.

As of the end of 2023, the total assets of the People's Bank of China reached a record high of 45.7 trillion yuan, and the balance sheet expanded by about 4 trillion yuan compared with 2022.

The renminbi suddenly and sharply depreciated

If you look at the structure carefully, in fact, the main thing is that MLF expands very much.

It used to be about 180 billion, but last year it was 2.5 trillion, an increase of more than 10 times.

How to understand it? It's essentially QE.

What is MLF?

The central bank's loans to commercial banks, why do commercial banks need MLF, because their liquidity goes to subscribe to urban investment bonds and other treasury bonds.

As a result, the Treasury bonds were issued, but the central bank's base money expanded.

Although the central bank does not directly buy government bonds, it only uses commercial banks as a channel.

The walker grandson, the walker grandson, change it, you can't recognize it as Sun Xingzhi?

In other words, this is a direct injection of money supply into the market, and it will definitely directly impact the exchange rate.

Looking back on it afterwards, the key reason why the RMB exchange rate will not stop depreciating in 2023 is here.

Today, this trend remains the same.

Why? Because we're under too much pressure to raise money.

Local government debt is due and needs financing, not to mention the repayment of principal, and the interest rate alone is frighteningly high;

In order for the economy to develop, whether it is infrastructure investment or investment in other industries, it still has to be driven by debt, and financing is also needed.

In terms of taxes, revenues, and so on, these financing figures add up to frighteningly high.

This financing does not even need to go through the "market", and there is no worry about not being able to raise funds, and it can be done directly "internally".

Of course, this comes at the cost of increased pressure on exchange rate depreciation.

Finally, it is important to note that the regulator's attitude towards the RMB exchange rate will not change much in the foreseeable future:

I don't want to see it depreciate, and once it goes beyond the "normal" range, I will definitely intervene.

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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