Liu Jipeng, a well-known expert, said: We should create conditions for the stock market to relay the property market! What do you think? In fact, the conditions for launching a round of bull market in A-shares are ripe, and 2024 is very likely to be the year when bears turn bulls.
Maybe you are not as optimistic as me, then let's stand on the macro perspective and the level of the stock market itself to analyze in depth, you will find that I am not just talking, I believe this article can bring you great inspiration.
Perspective the stock market puzzle, insight into the trend of the industry, grasp the investment opportunities, be a person who understands the stock market, and make a clear investment!
1. The conditions are ripe for a bull market in A-shares
At present, it is of great practical significance to launch a new round of bull market. It is not only the need to expand domestic demand, stimulate consumption, and promote economic recovery, but also the guidance of policies; it is not only the expectation of the state, but also the appeal of experts, and even more so the expectation of hundreds of millions of people.
1. Policy orientation gives rise to a bull market. In order to promote the stock market to improve, the policy has introduced a series of favorable policies, strengthened the construction of basic systems, plugged various loopholes, enhanced the investment value of the stock market, and took out real money to protect the market, with great strength and determination. Compared with before the Chinese New Year, market confidence has improved significantly, and I can't find a reason to continue to be pessimistic.
2. The bear market adjustment cycle is coming to an end. Over the past 30 years, A-shares have never had a bear market for more than 4 years, and the previous round of bear market has gone for more than 3 years, and it has been quite sufficient in terms of adjustment time, and the possibility of ending the bear market this year is great.
3. The bear market adjustment space is in place. The CSI 300, China's core asset index, plunged nearly 50 percent, the biggest drop since 2009, while the ChiNext plunged nearly 60 percent and the STAR 50 fell 63 percent. In terms of room for adjustment, the major stock indexes have been adjusted very well, and the ultra-low valuation has blocked the space for the stock index to continue to fall sharply.
4. The mainstream plate is adjusted in place. Mainstream sectors such as pharmaceuticals and medical care, new energy, new energy vehicles, and semiconductors plummeted by 60%-70%, the valuation bubble was fully squeezed, the risks were fully released, and the medium and long-term investment was very cost-effective. A large number of high-quality big blue chips, big white horses, and industry leaders have fallen very badly in the past two or three years, and there are not a few who have plummeted by more than 70%.
5. Market valuations have bottomed out. The valuations of major stock indexes such as CSI 300, ChiNext, CSI 500, and STAR 50 have fallen below the lows of the last round of bear market, and are at a historic low in more than 10 years. The valuations of mainstream sectors such as pharmaceutical, medical and biological, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, semiconductors, chips, CSI data, CNI computing power, Internet, and media have also fallen to historic lows and large bottoms, and the overall investment value of the market is very prominent.
Based on the above five points of analysis, I believe that A-shares have fully met the basic conditions for launching a new round of bull market, and we should no longer be overly pessimistic about the future, and the next two or three years will be an extremely rare period of investment opportunities.
Second, market trends and hot topics
1. What is the sustainability of the low-altitude economic explosion?
Flying cars and low-altitude economy are undoubtedly the hottest hot spots in the near future, and more than 10 stocks have closed the daily limit today.
The low-altitude economy has great potential for development, but it is only in its infancy and cannot be realized in the profits of the industry, but the excitement of the market is not in the performance, but in the future expectations. Judging from the performance of the disk, the popularity and heat remain good, and the market will perform in the future, but it is necessary to pay attention to the short-term and will diverge at any time next week. Pay attention to the trend of the leading Wanfeng Aowei, if the leading stock falls, there are no other stocks on the top or there are multiple stocks in the same day, the risk of short-term adjustment will increase greatly.
It is very risky to participate in the short-term hype of hot topics, and it is not advisable to blindly chase high, and ordinary players should be cautious and cautious if their skills are not in place. Don't always look at the hot spots rising sharply, they are also very miserable when they fall.
2. The pork sector has risen sharply, and the pig cycle has reversed?
The pork sector suddenly rose sharply, and many stocks closed the daily limit. However, this position is not suitable for blind pursuit, because there is a heavy trap plate above, and it is difficult to break through directly. There is no chasing in the pressure zone, which is the basic trading rhythm.
The pork sector is a very cyclical industry, and this round of the pig cycle has lasted for several years.
Because the pattern of pig farming is completely different from a few years ago, the pig cycle can no longer be judged by past experience. In the past, a large number of farmers raised pigs, and its cyclical nature was greatly affected by market supply and demand. Now the number of farmers has decreased significantly, the number of enterprises has increased dramatically, the whole industry has entered the enterprise competition pattern, in order to seize market share, many pig enterprises even if they do not make money, they will increase the amount of slaughter, which is equivalent to forcibly changing the market supply and demand pattern, and forcibly changing the rhythm of the pig cycle.
If you want to grasp the opportunity, you should grasp it from the technical side, and find opportunities on the basis of strict stop-loss protection, so as to prevent huge losses due to the wrong market or industry development trends.
3. The main line of science and technology is differentiated, and there is pressure to adjust?
Today, the technology sector has risen and fallen, and the differentiation is more obvious this week. In this wave of rebound market, the technology sector is the strongest main line, the short-term rise is huge, and some bottom-buying funds naturally have the desire to cash in profits, plus the subdivisions have rushed into the strong pressure area, and some of the quilted funds also have the desire to unbundle and throw out, and the two kinds of selling pressure resonance have led to the technology sector from time to time to rise and fall.
For example, the semiconductor sector has been oscillating at the purple line for 3 weeks, because it has encountered strong resistance and digested the selling pressure with sideways shocks. In this case, it is not technically possible to analyze the upward breakout, or the downward pullback. In this case, it is safer to wait for it to get out of the sense of direction. Either wait for a breakout to retrace, or wait for a pullback to stop falling. Sideways trading is also the basic trading rhythm, it is difficult to make profits in a narrow shock range, and it is easy to be slapped on both sides if the rhythm is reversed.
In the short term, there is still a need for adjustment and washing in the technology sector, but I am very optimistic in the medium term, and the technology market will run through the whole year of 2024. I have done in-depth analysis many times before, and I won't repeat it today, and new friends can take a look at past posts.
4. Why was the CSI 300 Index robbed and became the strongest "gold-absorbing beast" of ETFs?
On July 31, 2023, there were only 2.24 million shares of the CSI 300 ETF in the chart, and as of the last trading day, the share soared to 5.54 million shares in more than half a year, more than doubling, becoming a giant with a scale of nearly 200 billion, which is unprecedented in A-shares.
2023.7.31 happened to be a small high point of a wave of rebound, and then the CSI 300 opened the killing mode.
Behind this phenomenon is the high recognition of the long-term investment value of China's core assets, the optimistic expectation of future development prospects, and the extreme optimism about the market outlook. If the market is not optimistic about China's long-term development prospects, the inevitability of economic recovery, and the future of the stock market, it is impossible to buy the CSI 300, the "national fortune" index, with great fanfare.
After more than 3 years of plunge, the PB valuation corresponding to the previous low of the CSI 300 has not only fallen below the low point of 2018/2016, but also below the low point of 2014, which is at a historic low and a large bottom area. As a value index with high certainty in the future, it is a coveted medium- and long-term layout opportunity for large institutional funds, and it is no wonder that mainstream funds are so overwhelmed.
5. Innovative drugs
Big technology and big health are the most optimistic tracks in my middle line, and both have excellent market logic. The so-called investment is to lay out the present and win in the future. It's not a big deal to look at a few short-term fluctuations, but it's most important to look at the medium-term pattern. If you look right in the short term, you can just take away a few more watermelons, and if you look right in the medium term, you can take away a cow.
Due to the rise of AI, Big Tech stands on the global outlet, and its popularity is very high, and it is a well-deserved hot line in the current market.
Due to the fact that medicine and medical care are not in the tuyere for the time being, the lack of event stimulation, the performance is relatively low-key, and the increase is relatively backward, but this does not mean that the big health track does not have good medium-term investment value and holding value.
Looking back at the previous bull markets of medical biology, each time it can hit a record high, and it will never be absent from the big rise. In the next bull run, will there be an exception? I don't think so!
The life and health needs of China's 1.4 billion people have laid a solid foundation for the pharmaceutical and medical industry, with the acceleration of aging, the long-term sustainable growth of residents' income, and the increasingly strong concept of health.
As an industry with very high medium-term certainty, valuations have fallen to historic lows and large bottoms, and it is impossible for medium- and long-term large funds to turn a blind eye and remain unmoved. In the third and fourth quarters of last year, public funds have begun to significantly increase their positions in pharmaceutical, medical and biological products, and the trend of fund positions represents the medium-term attitude of institutions. Once the bull market comes, a large number of shareholders will enter the market, and incremental funds will enter the market, and it will be difficult for medicine and medical care to rise.
Innovative drugs are an important branch of the big health track, which has higher growth potential than traditional medicine and is favored by institutional investors.
The market has rebounded in the past one month, and the growth rate of innovative drugs is significantly greater than that of Pharma Biotechnology and China Securities Medical, showing a stronger aggressiveness. Looking back on the historical market, when there is a market in the big health track, innovative drugs often perform more prominently.
The CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index covers Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Zhifei Biotechnology, Kelun Pharmaceutical, Fosun Pharmaceutical, Tigermed and other innovative drug leaders and white horses, with very high growth potential.
After two or three years of sharp decline, the valuation of innovative drugs has fallen to a historic low, and the medium and long-term investment is very cost-effective.
At present, the style of the market is relatively clear, with free capital and short-term speculation funds playing science and technology hotspots, and long-term funds laying out the medical value track. While taking into account the technology market, I focused on the allocation of medical biology, and patiently waited for the arrival of the spring season that belongs to the medical market. If you want to wear a crown, you must bear its weight! If you want to make a lot of money, waiting and waiting are indispensable processes.
The index fluctuates in a narrow range, the pace of the upward attack slows down, is a benign adjustment coming?
Finally, please give a thumbs up, give encouragement and support, thank you very much!
The above content is personal opinion only and is not intended to be instructive. The mention of individual stock funds is only to record market views and the actual operation process, and accumulate materials for future creations, without making any recommendations, please do not blindly follow up. Past performance is not indicative of the future and investors should be aware of the risk of market volatility.