Crazy India, how long can it go up?

Hello everyone, I'm Mao 18, and I'm starting a new series today

"2024 Dismantling the Global Money Circle", this series has a total of 20+ in-depth drafts, one dismantling a country or region, not only writing about houses, but also finance, industry, economy, and life;

The first article is about India, the second is about Japan, and then there are the United States, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, the United Kingdom, and South Korea......

Let's learn about the world and explore the world in Mao Shiba's writings.

1

In this world, there is more and more a sense of tearing that is almost crazy!

When talking about A-color change has become the most heart-wrenching topic at the dinner table, the global stock market has hit a record high amid the surge.

Nikkei broke through the 390098 point for the first time and broke the historical record;

France, breaking through 7911 points;

German stock index, breaking through 17,370 points;

India, breaking through 73,158 points;

The stock markets of the United States, Germany, France, Japan, India and other countries have all risen in a mess.

Especially India.

Last Friday, the Nifty 50, a blue-chip index in India, hit a new high for a week.

There are also data forecasts that Nifty 50 companies are expected to grow by about 15% in profit, marking the fourth consecutive year of double-digit profit growth.

Since the end of December last year, India's stock market has soared to US$4.33 trillion, surpassing Hong Kong for the first time and becoming the world's fourth-largest stock market after the United States, China and Japan.

The Indian stock market has hit an 8-year winning streak!

As the stock price soared, more and more international capital began to pour into the Indian stock market.

Last year alone, foreign investors bought more than $20 billion worth of Indian equities.

Even Japanese retail investors, whose own stock market is booming, are pouring into the Indian stock market in large numbers!

Total assets of domestic investment trusts focused on Indian equities rose 11 percent to 237 billion yen ($1.57 billion) in January.

Not long ago, I read several international investment bank reports, and there are still many bullish people about the forecast for the Indian stock market. Among them, Jefferies analysts estimate:

By 2030, India's stock market will more than double in value to $10 trillion.

In the past 3 years, it has risen 2 times, and in 30 years, it has soared 100 times, which is eye-catching enough in the world!

Why did the Indian stock market rise so wildly?

There are several reasons why there is a heated discussion on the Internet:

1. A series of economic policies pursued by Modi;

2. The U.S. supply chain is reshuffled, and India is on top;

3. T+0 for retail investors, T+3 for institutions, and a strict delisting system;

4. Stable and considerable corporate profits;

5. They are betting that Modi can be re-elected;

All of this is true, but beyond that, many people seem to be ignoring an important reason: inflation, for example.

From 1990 to 2022, India's stock index grew by about 66 times, while currency issuance increased by 93 times, and GDP in dollar terms increased by only about 9 times.

But no matter what, Ah San is no longer Ah San.

Now India, the world's largest in terms of total population, 4th in the world in terms of total market capitalization, and 5th in terms of GDP.

There are also predictions that India's GDP will reach $4,105.38 billion in 2024, while Japan and Germany, which rank ahead of it, both had $4+ trillion in GDP last year.

Some experts say that India's GDP surpasses Japan and Germany and rushes to the world's third largest economy, which will be achieved within five years.

You see, in the past, Ah San became the third brother, but now even the third master has the momentum!

2

What's amazing about India is that not only the stock market is rising, but the property market is also going crazy!

The most amazing thing about this country is that the income is not high, and the house prices are rising fast.

In the past decade, housing prices across the country have risen steadily by about 15% per year.

From 2009 to 2018, house prices in India increased by 2.35 times, with an annualized growth rate of about 15%.

Even in 2023, house prices across India will still increase by an average of 15%. The increase ranged from 10 per cent to 24 per cent in different cities, with Hyderabad having the highest annual growth rate of 24 per cent at 24 per cent, reaching around Rs 5,750 per sq ft this year.

Among them, Mumbai is the most powerful, and the house price has risen to 8th in the world!

Over the past 30 years, property prices in Mumbai have skyrocketed by as much as 600 times.

In 2023, the house price in Mumbai will be as high as 75,000 yuan, ranking 8th among cities in the world, higher than the average price of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.

But the per capita monthly income of the whole of Mumbai is only more than 1,000 yuan.

Looking at the sales volume, the sales volume of the Indian property market soared by 48% last year!

India's residential sales reached a record high of Rs 3.47 trillion ($42 billion) in 2023, a strong 48% year-on-year increase.

2022 was a high, and 2023 is a new high.

Looking at the chart, housing sales in the top 8 cities in India in 2022 hit a nine-year high.

What about 2023?

The sales volume in the top seven cities rose directly to 477,000 units, and the sales volume also hit a new high in the past decade.

Especially the top luxury houses, the sales volume has directly doubled!

For example, luxury homes with a total price of 400 million rupees (US$4.8 million) were sold in the first half of 2022, and in the first half of 2023, they directly doubled to 6,900 units, a 130% increase.

Using Mumbai as an example, I've combed through the sales of homes in a few major areas:

The highest sales volume was in the metropolitan area, and the fastest growth was in Pune.

Metropolitan Area (MMR), with sales of 109,000 units in 2022 and 153,000 units in 2023, an increase of 40%;

Pune, which sold 57,000 units in 2022 and 87,000 units in 2023, an increase of 52%;

Bangalore, 63,980 housing sales in 2023, up 29%;

Hyderabad, with 61,715 homes in 2023, the market for sales has increased by 30%;

The top mansion in the capital was robbed madly, and the purchase restriction order was forced out in anger!

On January 6, a luxury condominium project near New Delhi, the capital of India, was opened, worth 72 billion rupees (about 865 million US dollars), with a total of 1,113 units, and all of them were sold out within three days of opening.

Such an astonishing popularity has led the Indian government to intervene to regulate and restrict each buyer to only buy one set, and the deposit will be increased to 5 times the industry standard.

Later, it was calculated that a quarter of the buyers behind this luxury apartment were non-Indian residents.

Let's look at another set of data:

Between 2017 and 2022, foreign institutional investment in India's real estate sector tripled to $26.6 billion.

Up to now, international capital is still flowing into the Indian property market.

3

Extremely uneven India, extremely torn Mumbai!

To understand India, you must start by understanding Mumbai.

Mumbai, not the capital of India, is the largest city and largest port with a population of 18 million.

10% of the country's employment, 40% of the income tax, 60% of the customs duties, 20% of the excise tax, are all contributed by Mumbai.

Two pictures, AB side of Mumbai.

It is the most economically developed international metropolis in India, where the financial, entertainment, and international trade centers are located, and a large number of Bollywood stars also live here.

It is also home to the largest slum in Asia, the Dharavi Slum, where a large number of poor people gather.

Shocking life scenes, seriously backward supporting facilities, leaking houses, shortage of toilets, muddy roads, and quite poor conditions.

This gap, this gap between the rich and the poor, you are in good quality.

As early as 2016, Mumbai's house-price-to-income ratio jumped to the second highest in Asia, second only to Hong Kong.

In the core area of Mumbai city center, the average house price is 80,000 yuan, and the price of top luxury houses is as high as 30-400,000 yuan, many of which are more than 1,000 square meters, with a total price of 3-400 million yuan.

Can you imagine that the world's first luxury house, Antilla, is actually in Mumbai, India, with an area of 37,000 square meters, which is larger than the Palace of Versailles in France.

However, due to the existence of a large number of slums, the per capita income of the whole Mumbai has dropped to more than 1,000 yuan, and many people cannot buy a house in their lifetime.

Some people are going to say, as soon as the slums are demolished and the new city is built, won't the new city and the money come?

Because the national conditions are different, there are few places that can build a new interface like us, which is beautiful, high-end, and uniform.

Much of India's land is not registered with the central government, land ownership is disputed, and there are a large number of nail households, which makes demolition and reconstruction extremely costly, extremely difficult and extremely long-term.

The gap between the rich and the poor is unbalanced, and it is difficult to reverse it...... This is Mumbai and a microcosm of India as a whole.

4

Many people say that India, which is taking off rapidly, is very similar to China's 90s.

Truly.

But unfortunately, there are some shortcomings that are too difficult to change in this land.

1. India's inflation is too high!

High interest rates on the dollar, external debt pressures, a global credit crunch, the Red Sea crisis...... These are all sources of inflationary pressures in India.

Some institutions predict that

India's inflation rate is expected to reach 6.9% by the second quarter of 2024, the highest in 15 months.

India's economy is quite fragile.

With external reserves saddled with external debt of more than 70% of GDP, coupled with the transfer of debt and inflation risks in beautiful countries, the harvest of India will be inevitable.

2. The debt rate and unemployment rate are too high!

India currently has the highest debt ratio among emerging markets, with general government debt surging to 77.9% of GDP as of Q3 FY2023 and the highest level since 2018.

Moreover, now India's unemployment rate has soared to more than double digits, setting off a new wave of public examinations.

3. The business environment is too poor, and foreign-funded crematoriums!

There is a popular saying on the Internet, India makes money and India spends, and one wants to take it home.

Take China, for example.

As of December 2019, China's cumulative investment in India exceeded US$8 billion.

As a result, he was banned after 3 months.

In April 2020, hundreds of investment proposals were not approved, then Chinese-backed apps were banned, and then any (power) equipment imports from China were banned, and more than 500 Chinese companies were investigated on various trumped-up charges.

In 2022, Xiaomi was fined 560 million, and in 2023, BYD was fined 63.72 million in taxes, and then 3 executives of vivo were arrested.

Last year, Foxconn halted the Indian factory project, Disney is also considering withdrawing, and many companies directly announced their rejection of Indian cooperation.

Not only Chinese companies, but also South Korea's Samsung, Japan's high-speed rail, the United States' Wal-Mart, Apple, Amazon, etc., have all been pitted.

As a result, from 2014 to 2021, 2,783 companies around the world "fled" India, accounting for 20% of foreign-funded enterprises.

2023 will be even worse:

India's foreign direct investment (FDI) has seen negative growth for the first time in nearly a decade;

Among them, the net inflow of foreign investment fell to 28 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 27%;

Even the World Bank has characterized that this is one of the "hardest countries in the world to do business in"!

So you see:

High inflation, high debt ratio, high unemployment rate, and the external harvest of a beautiful country, and the internal business environment is so bad......

Even if Ah San becomes the third master, what can he do?!

The world is becoming more and more magical, more complex, and more and more uncertain.

How to stand in the world and find a safe and steadily rising asset pool for families and individuals? Hedging risks is something that everyone should seriously consider.

Since 2023, Mi Zhai has been continuing to do international research, from Vietnam, Thailand to Japan to Europe, etc., and in 2024, it will increase its efforts to go overseas to find opportunities.

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