The deposit rate has been lowered, and a new round of shock waves is coming!
First, the deposit interest rate has been lowered, and a new round of shock waves is coming!
In the past year, there have been three rounds of cuts in deposit rates, and the one-year deposit rate of major banks has fallen to a low of 1.45%. Recently, a number of small and medium-sized banks in Guangxi and Jilin have collectively lowered their deposit interest rates by up to 60 basis points.
Deposit interest rates continue to fall, resulting in a decline in the attractiveness of deposit products, and many depositors have switched to higher-yield financial management, and a new round of shock waves is coming!
The data shows that this week's bank wealth management scale increased by 412.2 billion yuan month-on-month to 28.11 trillion yuan, and CITIC Securities expects that the scale of wealth management will regain its position at the 30 trillion yuan mark in the second half of 2024.
The overall income of bank wealth management will be higher than that of bank deposits, but bank wealth management needs to bear certain risks, and the rebound in the scale of bank wealth management shows that more and more depositors are difficult to accept the low yield of deposits, and turn to higher yield wealth management.
Second, in this round of shock waves, A-shares have become the beneficiaries
At the same time, A-shares have increasingly become beneficiaries of lower deposit rates. I have mentioned the following two points several times in this issue:
1. The quantitative change of the continuous reduction of the deposit interest rate will inevitably form a qualitative change. As a result, fixed-income wealth management funds represented by deposits have slowly shifted to the equity market represented by the stock market.
2. The risk of A-shares below 3,000 points is smaller, and it is only a matter of time before it rebounds to 3,000 points.
On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index surged 1.29%, returning to 3,000 points for the second time, and the last time was last Friday, and it was only one trading day after breaking through 3,000 points again.
However, although it broke through 3,000 points twice, the driving force was significantly different, the first time was driven by high-dividend stocks represented by banks, PetroChina, etc. The second time is driven by communication equipment, games, automobiles, 6G and other theme stocks.
This illustrates two things:
1. The market style has been switched, and the plate shows a certain rotation.
2. The active theme shows that the money-making effect of the market is improving. As many as 5,031 stocks rose in the market on Tuesday, while only 277 stocks declined.
On the news side, at the 2024 Mobile World Congress, Huawei held a full set of 5.5G product solution launch conference and officially released the first large model in the communications industry. At the same time, Huawei said that 2024 is the first year of 5G-A commercialization.
The industry generally believes that in the process of improving frequency utilization, the demand for wireless main equipment and upstream antennas, RF devices (filters, power amplifiers, etc.), PCBs, optical modules/optical devices and other links is expected to increase significantly.
Affected by this, the communication equipment sector rose 5.4% in the market on Tuesday, and the related communication ETF (515880) rose 6.7%, with a very obvious excess return.
Coincidentally, the recent technological changes in the industry have all involved the communications industry without exception. Recently, OpenAI announced the launch of a new generative AI model "Sora", which can accept input prompts for text, images, and videos, and is able to create up to 60 seconds of 1080P HD video based on images or complement existing videos.
However, at the same time, its training computing power requirements are far greater than those of previous models, so for the communication sector, especially the target with a large proportion of optical modules, new hematopoietic opportunities are obtained. At present, the communication ETF (515880) is the ETF with the highest proportion of optical communication weight in the market, so it has performed well recently. Under the two resonances of Huawei concept + Sora concept, it is expected to rebound further. If you don't have a securities account, you can follow its connection (007818).
3. Deposit rates will continue to fall in 2024
On February 21, the latest data released by the State Administration of Financial Supervision showed that as of the end of 2023, the net interest margin of important indicators of commercial banks fell to 1.69%, falling below the 1.7% mark for the first time.
It is very important for commercial banks to maintain a certain profit margin to maintain financial stability, and a decline in net interest margin means a decline in bank profit margin, and the deposit interest rate, as the main cost of commercial banks, will inevitably fall in the future to ensure that the net interest margin stabilizes.
At the end of last year, the Financial Times, the central bank's media, mentioned in an article that although it was the third time this year that the deposit interest rate was adjusted, the interviewed industry experts generally believed that the current round of deposit interest rate reduction cycle of commercial banks will continue.
That is, the deposit rate is likely to continue to decline in 2024. Although the first round of deposit rate cuts may not be too large, the reduction will definitely have the effect of quantitative change into qualitative change, and A-shares will become one of the main beneficiaries of deposit fund relocation.