The new impetus of "returning to 3,000 points": the main capital protection action is more resolute, and the concept of "investor-oriented" has become increasingly popular

Every reporter: Wang Haimin Every editor: Ye Feng

Over the years, 3,000 points seem to have become the price center of the Shanghai Composite Index, which has repeatedly fallen below and then recovered repeatedly. In mid-October last year, the A-share market experienced the seventh "3,000-point defense battle" in history, and after some competition between the long and short sides, the 3,000-point loss was finally confirmed.

In just two months since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has experienced a thrilling V-shaped reversal. At the beginning of February, the Shanghai Composite Index retreated to the 2,600-point area, but in the following trading days, the market launched a Jedi counterattack, and recently regained the 3,000-point mark.

Compared with the "3,000-point defense battle" in the early stage, the "battle" of 3,000 points lost and regained this time has more connotations. In the recent stage, policy care has always been the main theme of the market, especially on the eve of the Spring Festival, various favorable policies have been intensively released. Although the current market wait-and-see sentiment is still heavy after experiencing sharp fluctuations, the recent actions of the main funds to protect the disk have shown the determination to resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market, in addition, with the top-down advocacy, the practice of "investor-oriented" concept has become increasingly popular.

Similarities: Favorable policies are intensively released

For more than a month from the end of August to mid-October last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has been around 3,000 points but not broken, but at that time, the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Index, and the CSI 300 have fallen below the low point in April 2022, that is, at that time, the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Index, and the CSI 300 were actually located in the Shanghai Index around 2,800 points; The small and micro cap index represented by the CSI 1000 is relatively strong, and the Shanghai Index corresponding to the CSI 2000 is about 3600 points.

In addition, at the policy level, there has been a warm wind blowing recently and in the early stage of the 3000 defense war in October last year. On July 24 last year, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee made important arrangements for the work of the capital market, clearly proposing that "it is necessary to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence". In the following months, a large number of favorable policies focusing on the investment side have been implemented, and the intensity is rare in the history of A-shares, including the introduction of heavy benefits such as a significant reduction in stamp duty, new regulations on reducing holdings, tightening the pace of IPO refinancing, and Huijin Company's increase in holdings of the four major banks.

Screenshot from: China Merchants Securities Research Report

Before and after the Spring Festival, the regulator continued to speak out and took a series of measures to strengthen the supervision of transactions and maintain the smooth operation of equity pledge and securities lending transactions, which played a positive role in alleviating market liquidity risk concerns.

With regard to the equity pledge and securities lending business, which had previously aroused market concerns, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) proposed to guide securities firms and other institutions to extend the call time, dynamically lower the liquidation line, and maintain the flexibility of the liquidation line, and decided to ensure the smooth operation of the securities lending business by suspending the scale of new refinancing securities and gradually closing the stock, and strictly prohibiting the provision of securities lending and borrowing to investors who use securities lending and borrowing to implement intraday rotation transactions. Second, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said that it would strengthen the supervision of trading practices and severely punish malicious short-selling by manipulating the market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have also taken regulatory measures against the abnormal trading behavior of individual institutions in accordance with regulations, suspended their trading, and stated that they will learn from international regulatory practices, pursue advantages and avoid disadvantages, and establish and improve regulatory arrangements for quantitative trading.

From February 18th to 19th, just after the Spring Festival, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a series of symposiums to listen to opinions and suggestions from all parties on strengthening capital market supervision, preventing and resolving risks, and promoting the high-quality development of the capital market. At the symposium, the participants believed that the healthy development of the capital market is directly related to the "money bags" of hundreds of millions of investors and the overall situation of economic and social development. It is recommended to strictly control IPO access, strengthen the supervision of the whole process of listed companies, resolutely clear out unqualified listed companies, fundamentally improve the quality of listed companies, and increase investment returns. Adhere to the investor-oriented concept, standardize all kinds of trading behaviors, and improve the fairness of the system.

Differences: "national team", northbound funds, investor mentality

Although the market faced a 3,000-point defense battle in October last year, some investors who had been immersed in the market for a long time appeared quite calm. Last year, when 3,000 points were about to fall, a senior institutional person told reporters, "If you don't break it, you can't stand it, (3,000 points) is not the first time. Everyone has been educated by the market for several rounds. ”

And now 3000 points will become a pressure level to test the action of the market to some extent, so the mentality of investors has also changed to a certain extent.

For the current market back to 3,000 points, the above-mentioned senior institutional person recently told reporters, "Around 3,000 points, it is still necessary to repeat it, after all, our public offering has not yet been released to net sell." The most important thing for bailout funds is to solve liquidity risks, and this problem seems to be solved at present. I have been going back and forth for a long time around 3000 points, so it is not so easy to really break through. ”

Although the market is still in a wait-and-see mentality, the recent move of the "national team" to enter the market seems to be more determined, which is also different from the 3,000-point defense battle in October last year. On February 5, a number of broad-based ETFs such as CSI 500 ETF, ChiNext ETF and CSI 1000 ETF hit a record high from the bottom, which attracted widespread attention from the market.

On February 6, Central Huijin announced that it has recently expanded the scope of ETF holdings, and will continue to increase its holdings and expand the scale of its holdings, and resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market. Subsequently, on February 8, the CSI 2000 ETF also released a historical amount, and the share of the CSI 2000 ETF expanded rapidly in the first few trading days before the Spring Festival.

It is worth mentioning that the competition for 3,000 points is also around, and the trend of northbound funds in February this year is also quite different from that in October last year. As of February 26, the net inflow of northbound funds in February this year reached 30.55 billion yuan, compared with a significant net outflow of 44.8 billion yuan in October last year.

According to the statistics of China Merchants Securities, last week (February 19-February 23) the net inflow of northbound funds was 10.7 billion yuan, and in terms of industry preference, the net purchase scale of northbound funds was relatively high, such as banks, food and beverage, and non-bank finance, with net purchases of 8.34 billion yuan, 6.07 billion yuan, and 3.45 billion yuan respectively, and concentrated sales of computers, media, medicine and biology, etc., with a net selling scale of 3.23 billion yuan, 2.53 billion yuan, and 1.33 billion yuan. In terms of individual stocks, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An of China, etc., with relatively high net buying scales, and WuXi AppTec, Focus Media, Sichuan Changhong, etc.

The strategy team of China Merchants Securities recently released a research report pointing out that, on the whole, in the market adjustment before the Spring Festival, the northbound funds entrusted to Chinese securities firms and the ETF funds subscribed on a large scale against the trend have played an important role in maintaining market stability, and have played an important role in curbing the downward trend of the market and preventing financial market risks. After the Spring Festival, with the end of the liquidity shock, these forces that act as market stability funds began to gradually weaken, and the scale of net buying declined, while the market stabilized and rebounded began to rely more on the spontaneous forces of the market.

The action of "improving quality and efficiency and emphasizing returns" has been responded to by listed companies

Compared with the rescue in the second half of last year, the main policy force is the force, and recently, many listed companies are also taking action to practice the concept of "investor-oriented".

In late January 2024, the National Standing Committee emphasized that "it is necessary to further improve the basic system of the capital market, pay more attention to the dynamic balance of investment and financing, and vigorously improve the quality and investment value of listed companies".

Screenshot from: BYD announcement

According to the statistics of CITIC Securities, as of February 24 this year, a total of 308 Shanghai and 35 Shenzhen listed companies disclosed the announcement of the "quality and efficiency and return" action plan, and more than 70% of the companies disclosed the announcement were private enterprises, of which the average market value of Shenzhen companies was larger.

Recently, "Construction Machinery Mao" XCMG Machinery pointed out in the "Announcement on Promoting the Action Plan of "Double Improvement of Quality and Return" that "market investment and financing are two sides of the same coin. Only by protecting investors can the market have a foundation for prosperity and development, and listed companies as the main body of financing can achieve high-quality development. ”

In addition, the reporter noticed that many listed companies have recently started to make a fuss about repurchases, for example, a number of listed companies have changed their repurchase plans, adjusting the use of repurchased shares from the original for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentive plans to for cancellation and reduction of registered capital.

On the afternoon of February 25, BYD, the "tram mao", announced that it planned to increase the repurchase amount from 200 million to 400 million and use it to reduce the registered capital.

On February 26, "Bond Mao" Oriental Wealth announced that it intends to adjust the use of repurchased shares, from the original plan "the repurchase of shares is intended to be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentive plans" to "the actual repurchase of shares for cancellation and reduction of registered capital", the repurchase company has used nearly 1 billion yuan.

Recently, listed companies that have issued similar announcements on the adjustment of repurchase plans also include Related New Materials, Taichenguang, and No. 9 Company.

According to Choice statistics, the number of listed companies that have issued repurchase plans since February this year is as high as 252, a significant increase of 713% from January.

In addition, on January 24 this year, the relevant person in charge of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission proposed for the first time at the press conference of the State Council Information Office that market value management should be included in the performance appraisal of the heads of central enterprises. CITIC Securities expects that the short-term dividend repurchase efforts of central enterprises may be strengthened, and the relevant indicators of cash market value ratio are worth paying attention to, and in the medium term, central enterprises may promote A-share mergers and acquisitions, and help improve the valuation of relevant Hong Kong stock targets.

CITIC Securities believes that in combination with the statement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission before and after the Spring Festival, under the overall idea of "optimizing the stock", it is expected that the follow-up supervision will guide listed companies to increase dividends and repurchases, enhance investor returns, and encourage mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and the medium and long-term expected returns of A-shares are expected to increase.

IPO准入将迎来更严格监管

Since the new chairman of the SFC took office, the regulator's attitude towards IPOs has become stricter. Judging from some recent cases, there is a fluke mentality for getting sick and thinking that the routine of withdrawing from it will become more and more useless in the IPO market in the future.

Recently, the official website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed that it issued a fine of 10 million yuan to Shanghai Silxin Technology Co., Ltd., an IPO queuing company. The company, which submitted an initial listing application on the STAR Market in August 2021, was convicted of fraudulent issuance for fabricating false content in its securities issuance documents, and the company and its key management personnel were fined a total of 16.5 million yuan, in fact, the company withdrew its IPO application as early as July 2022. This penalty is also the first since the implementation of the new Securities Law.

In the eyes of industry insiders, even if the company withdrew the materials, it still did not escape the heavy penalty, which shows the determination of the regulator to take responsibility for the declaration of the enterprise. This move will play a greater warning role for companies that are currently waiting in long queues for IPOs and have not yet been detected as fraudsters, and the number of companies withdrawing IPOs is expected to continue to increase in the future.

According to Choice statistics, as of February 26, the number of A-share IPOs voluntarily withdrawn this year reached 47, a significant increase of 38% year-on-year.

At the first press conference of the Year of the Dragon held by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on February 23, in response to questions from the media about IPO review, the chief risk officer and director of the issuance department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission responded that "the CSRC system adheres to the investor-oriented, strictly reviews the companies to be listed, severely punishes violations of laws and regulations and infringes on the interests of investors, and uses the deterrent power of supervision to make enterprises dare not 'break through with illness', and improve the quality of listed companies from the source." ”

"In the supervision of issuance and listing, we are continuing to strengthen the whole chain of checks, and strictly punish financial fraud and fraudulent issuance. We will also significantly increase the proportion of on-site inspections of companies planning to be listed, and respond to investors' concerns with the improvement of the quality of listed companies. The chief risk officer and director of the issuance department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said.

National Business Daily