In the early hours of the morning, the Federal Reserve released a bombshell signal!

At 3 a.m. Beijing time on February 22, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting from January 30 to 31, 2024, which disclosed in detail the latest judgments of Fed officials on the financial conditions in the United States and the path of monetary policy, setting the tone for the Fed's monetary policy in 2024. What are the important signals released by the minutes of the meeting, which has attracted the attention of the market? What is the attitude of the Fed officials in their latest speeches, and what new judgments will forecasters make on the Fed's future actions?

A rate cut will require more progress on inflation

Last month, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row.

Overall, most Fed officials are concerned about the option of an "earlier rate cut", which they believe is significantly riskier than keeping rates high. This confirms the statement of the previous meeting that "it is not advisable to lower the interest rate target range until there is greater confidence that inflation will continue to move towards 2%." ”

While much progress has been made in disinflation, the Fed's tone is to remain cautious about inflation. The minutes said it would not be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate until participants judged that the policy rate could be at the peak of this tightening cycle and were more confident that inflation would continue to move towards 2%. The future direction of the policy rate will depend on the data, the changing outlook, and the balance of risks.

Most participants pointed to the risk of easing policy stances too soon.

In terms of balance sheet reduction (balance sheet reduction),

Fed officials at the meeting noted that the ongoing balance sheet reduction process is an important part of the FOMC's approach to achieving macroeconomic goals, and that balance sheet reduction has progressed well so far, the minutes read. Many participants suggested that an in-depth discussion of the balance sheet issue should begin at the next meeting. Some participants felt that the pace of balance sheet reduction might need to be slowed.

A handful of officials have mentioned downside risks to the economy

The minutes also showed that Fed staff were somewhat concerned about U.S. financial conditions in assessing the financial situation.

Some Fed staff believe that further progress on the inflation issue may take longer than expected. Officials said there was uncertainty about how long the restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained. "Several" officials pointed out that maintaining an excessively restrictive stance for a long time would pose downside risks to the economy.

After the minutes were released, Nick Timiraos, a journalist known as the "New Fed News Agency", posted that at last month's meeting, most Fed officials hinted at concerns that premature rate cuts and price pressures became entrenched, rather than keeping interest rates too high for too long, and only two officials highlighted the risk of keeping interest rates high for a long time. Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, believes that if inflation conditions become more stubborn, the Fed may stay on hold for longer than expected.

However, the market believes that the minutes will have a limited impact on the market, as the January consumer price index (CPI) data released on February 13 has broken the slowdown in inflation and traders have lowered bets on the Fed's near-term interest rate cuts.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell even publicly warned that a rate cut in March is unlikely. In addition, a number of senior Fed officials have spoken out that it is too early to consider a rate cut.

Fed Governor Bowman: Now is not the time to cut interest rates

Fed Governor Bowman said that the current economic environment is not enough to constitute a prerequisite for the central bank to cut interest rates.

Bowman also reiterated her criticism of the U.S. regulator's plan to increase the capital of big banks, announced last July, saying she hoped the regulator would revise the proposal.

Richmond Fed President: Data shows that inflationary pressures persist

Richmond Fed President Barkin said recent data showed that while the headline inflation situation has improved, but

Price pressures remain too high in some sectors and are now paying closer attention to short-term inflation data rather than year-on-year data.

Reuters poll: The Fed may cut interest rates as early as June

A Reuters survey of 104 economists conducted from February 14 to 20 showed that

The Fed may cut the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time as early as its monetary policy meeting in June this year. The results showed that 86 economists believe the Fed will cut interest rates in the second quarter of this year, a result similar to that in January. Of these, 53 believe that a rate cut is most likely to occur in June, and another 33 expect it to be in May. The rest of economists expect the first rate cut to be in the second half of the year.

The survey also showed that 64 economists do not expect rate cuts of more than 100 basis points this year.

Of these, 43 expect interest rates to be between 4.25% and 4.5% by the end of the year. The Fed's December 2023 forecast showed that Fed officials believe there will be three rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points.

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#c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: 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rgba(250, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;;--weui-LINK: 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rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media( prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}