The day of a new round of getting rich is coming again!
The following article is from the Cherry Big House, written by the Cherry team
It's time to demolish, it's time to change, and the day of demolition and getting rich is coming again!
And it's fast:
Shanghai said that in 2024, it will complete the renovation of 120,000 square meters of sporadic old houses, 310,000 square meters of unfinished old housing, and start 10 "urban village" transformation projects;
In all districts of Hangzhou, more than 1,700 hectares of land have been announced for demolition;
At the end of 2023, all districts in Nanjing will successively send out documents for the renovation of old residential areas in 24 years, with a total investment of more than 366 million yuan in Qinhuai, Hexi, and Gulou.
Shijiazhuang announced that 17 urban villages will be renovated by 2024.
It is expected that more cities will announce the transformation of urban villages in the future.
Because the direction of the property market in 2024 is three major projects: urban village transformation, affordable housing, and dual-use of ordinary and emergency.
The execution speed will also be faster than everyone thinks.
This round of urban village transformation was first proposed in July last year, when it was said that the transformation of urban villages should be carried out in super megacities.
Then, in less than half a year, by November, the three major projects were set as the new direction of real estate development.
Then, in December, the ZY Economic Work Conference proposed to accelerate the construction of the three major projects.
At the same time, also in December, the central bank launched the PSL again, directly putting 350 billion yuan into the market for the construction of three major projects. In January of this year, the central bank put another 150 billion yuan into the market.
By February, the money was in place, and the available statistics are that in early February, the special loan credit for urban villages in 35 megacities has exceeded 800 billion.
Then there are announcements from various places about how many villages will be renovated.
This speed, you see, is not muddy at all.
What does it mean? A new round of demolition and relocation is unfolding at full speed, and many people will enjoy the dividends of the times brought by demolition and relocation this year.
As we all know, from 2015 to 2018, we have carried out a round of shed reform, when after this nuclear-weapon-level move came out, the price increase in many cities increased, and the property market returned to the bull market.
Now the historical experience can no longer be replicated, but it can still be used for reference.
First, the relaxation of these policies can no longer be counted on, because the places that should be put are almost gone, and there is no effect, even if the northern purchase limit is still tight, it is useless, and everyone has long been numb.
But everyone's confidence needs to be built, the cycle of investment and consumption needs to be reinvigorated, and the economy must improve.
So what to do?
Fundamentally solve the problem that everyone has no money to buy a house.
Demolish your house, change your house, and then give you money/house tickets, you have money/house tickets to buy a house, the developer can also get the sales money, start construction and build a building to continue, and it can drive many industries to catch fire.
According to the current estimates of the agency, the transformation of urban villages in 21 megacities can directly generate more than 10 trillion investment, not to mention if you count the upstream and downstream industrial chains. Last year, the national real estate development investment was 11 trillion yuan.
Investment is brought up, and the property market can slowly return to a normal state.
The second is to demolish and renovate old houses, not only to stimulate the needs of the economy, but also to move space, so that old houses become good houses.
In the past 20 years, we have indeed made a lot of achievements in the property market, sold a lot of land, built a lot of houses, the average household living area is 118.2 square meters, and the per capita living area is 41.8 square meters.
But quantity does not represent quality, nor does it represent the real amount of dwelling.
Let me show you three data:
1. At the 2022 China Urban High-Quality Development Think Tank Forum, Qiu Baoxing, former Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, released relevant data on the vacancy rate in the mainland: at present, the housing vacancy rate in the mainland has reached 15%, and in some provinces it has even reached 25% and 30%.
2. In 2023, Shenzhen's population will skyrocket by nearly 2 million, which has exceeded the highest peak in history.
3. On Lianjia Online, there are 34,000 second-hand houses listed in Shenzhen, and only 550 houses within 20 years old, larger than 90 square meters, and transparent from north to south, accounting for 1.5% of the total number of listings.
What is this trying to say?
At present, the phenomenon of population transfer from small cities to large cities continues, the demand of the property market is still gathering in core cities, and the current situation of the property market of "total surplus and structural insufficiency" is still intensifying.
But that's not the main problem.
The main problem is that the demand for property market improvement is rising, but the transformation of the property market from "quantity to quality" has not kept up with the speed.
Now many people say that our population increase is not good, and the post-00s will not buy a house, so who else will the house be sold to?
The demographic factor is the underlying force of housing demand, and the total demand for housing on the mainland has entered a period of decline, this is certain.
However, the annual sales area of 1.1 billion square meters of commercial housing is still too small.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in China will be 1.12 billion square meters, down 8.5% from the previous year, and the sales of commercial housing will be 12 trillion yuan, down 6.5%.
This is the result of the combined effect of three factors: "three red lines, the impact of the epidemic, and the interest rate hike of Laos and the United States".
If these three factors do not appear at the same time, the original path of the property market should continue to rise steadily, and then stabilize at a certain level.
What kind of level?
Beike once gave such a data: from 2021 to 2035, the mainland will have 201-24.7 billion square meters of new housing demand, 22.2 billion square meters in a neutral scenario, an annual average of 1.48 billion square meters, and 1.33 billion square meters by 2035.
Looking at it now, is the average annual property market transaction of 1.1 billion square meters low?
So the demand will definitely return, but, there will be changes.
There is less rigid demand, more of an improvement demand.
I've said this many times in the past, and it's also mentioned in Shell's assessment data.
There is so much need for improvement, there has to be a place to change, and the development of many cities is actually saturated, and they are developing to the periphery, but the improvement cannot go to the suburbs.
Looking at the old houses in the city, the current situation is that it is difficult to ride a tiger, no one buys it, and it is difficult to rent, so demolition is necessary to make room for good house construction and let the improvement demand have a place.
So it's a super good for people who have an old house in their hands now.
But it should be said that this round of demolitions is limited to megacities.
In July last year, the state issued a document saying that it would renovate urban villages in megacities and megacities.
First, there is still a lot of demand for housing in super-large and mega-cities, and second, there is also a lot of room for the transformation of urban villages in super-large and mega-cities, which can stimulate the release of demand on a larger scale.
According to the data released by Shell, the number of old residential areas with buildings more than 20 years old in key 20 cities is 59,600, accounting for 40%.
Based on 1,000 households per community, there are 59.6 million households.
If all these needs are released, will the property market still not improve?
It's just that this round of estimation should be more about housing resettlement instead of monetary resettlement, such as the previous housing ticket policy in Guangzhou, demolishing the house and issuing the house ticket, and using the house ticket to choose the new house in the corresponding activity.
At present, there are still bugs in the room ticket policy, and the houses that can be selected in many cities are some properties that are not easy to sell, which is definitely not good.
Since you want everyone to buy a house, then all of them are involved, so that everyone can really move.
A new round of demolition and relocation must have come, depending on how it goes.
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