The national team continues to buy! A shares regained 2900, tomorrow pay attention to interest rate cuts, the State Administration of Financial Supervision is heavy
Before the holiday, we sorted out the rhythm of the current round of the national team by buying ETFs to save the market, incremental funds determine the direction of the market, since the national team is the main incremental funds in the market in the near future, then the direction of the national team's buying will inevitably determine the direction of the market, now let's look at a brief review.
Beginning on January 16, Huijin began to increase its efforts to buy the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF, due to Huijin's support, the SSE 50 and CSI 300 two major indices remained relatively strong in the subsequent decline.
The A-share liquidity crisis deteriorated sharply at the end of January, and there was a major crash of small and micro cap stocks in early February. And the effect of this buying was also immediate, the three major indices bottomed out on the same day and then rebounded continuously, and the rebound in the week before the holiday was more than 10%.
On February 9, Huijin began to buy CSI 2000 ETF to save the market micro-cap stocks, to this stage fools know to go to arbitrage, after the opening of the afternoon market on the same day, a number of CSI 2000 ETF high premium limit, small and micro cap stocks set off a tide of limit, more than 1300 companies rose by more than 10%.
Today, the national team continued to buy, mainly buying CSI 500 ETF, CSI 300 ETF, SSE 50 ETF, and CSI 1000 ETF. But we can find that the CSI 500 is falling, the CSI 1000 is not moving much, and the CSI 2000 is rising and falling.
Huijin's earliest purchase of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300 in the week before the holiday began to fluctuate, Huijin's second batch of purchases of the ChiNext index in the past two trading days began to be weak, Huijin last bought the CSI 2000 after the climax today has signs of rising and falling. It shows that the over-falling rebound driven by the national team buying alone may be over, not that the national team can rise if it buys, but that the over-falling + national team can buy, and the momentum of the over-falling rebound has been greatly attenuated.
What we are talking about here is an over-falling rebound, if its own logic is good and the fundamentals are good, then it can naturally rise. In other words, the index is about to diverge, and there is no excess return to follow Huijin to buy the broad-based index, and now it is time to select stocks.
After a brief analysis, let's look at the broader market. The trend in the first half of today is in line with our analysis above, after the over-falling rebound, the index once dived, and the ChiNext index once turned green, but at noon, the national team increased the buying of ETFs such as CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50, and the index bottomed out and rebounded, basically closing at a high point throughout the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index regained 2900 points. The closing point of view is still quite strong, the fly in the ointment is that there is a certain shrinkage, and the turnover of the two cities is less than one trillion.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.56%, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.13%, more than 4,200 stocks rose, 272 stocks rose by the limit, and the number of stocks with a down limit was only 3, indicating that the liquidity crisis should be resolved. Hong Kong stocks rose during the holiday and pulled back today, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.07% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.61%.
In terms of industries, communications, media, coal, computers, social services and other industries led the gains, while non-bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology, and power equipment fell in the four major industries.
The fermentation of Sora during the holiday directly promoted the surge of the A-share AI sector, and there was also a small composition of "Zhongji InnoLight silicon photonic chip" at noon, Zhongji Innolight rose to the limit to drive the CPO plate, and the relevant people came out to refute the rumors, but the AI tail continued to strengthen, and it seems that the market really recognizes AI, rather than looking at small compositions.
Generally, the first stage after the index has experienced a plunge is to overshoot and rebound, and after the over-fall rebound, it will reverse if there is a main line, and if there is no main line to lead, it will take a new main line such as shocks (the possibility of continuing to bottom is very small).
The holiday article gives four clues, today's market chooses central state-owned enterprises and AI, and AI has become the short-term main line. From now to before the two sessions, the market will still be exciting, and the follow-up policies of the two sessions should become the focus of the game.
Just now, the State Administration of Financial Supervision has spoken out again: actively introduce policy measures that are conducive to boosting confidence and expectations. Tomorrow is the LPR quotation, the central bank in charge of the Financial Times issued an article "The industry expects the LPR to be reasonable and moderately downward, and the financial sector will increase its concessions to entities", and the market expects that interest rates may be cut.
Risk Warning:
The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently