Soochow Securities: 2024 is the starting point of a new round of bull market in A-shares

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summary

China Merchants Securities believes that the market is expected to gradually bottom out and rebound, and the probability of A-shares going similar to 2016 will further increase.

Soochow Securities believes that 2024 is the starting point of a new round of bull market in A-shares, and core assets are expected to usher in valuation repair and growth styles will rise.

CITIC Securities said that the current investor sentiment has stabilized, and new catalysts have emerged in the technology theme, and it is recommended to take a step by step in the rebound process.

China Merchants Securities

The probability of A-shares going like 2016 has further increased

China Merchants Securities believes that with the smoothing of the domestic credit cycle, the profit drive of social finance has weakened, and different industries have entered an era of great differentiation. In 2024, government spending will increase, coupled with the improvement of external demand after the end of the global tightening cycle, the domestic economy is expected to recover moderately, global scientific and technological innovation will enter an upward cycle, A-share corporate profits will rise, and the capital side will turn moderate and net inflow. With multi-factor resonance, A-shares are expected to maintain a volatile upward structural bull trend. Structurally, the growth style is relatively dominant, focusing on technology, medicine and some cyclical industries with clear industrial trends, large slopes of economic improvement, and good production capacity supply and demand patterns.

Many of the current valuations of major indices have hit record lows or returned to record lows. This has also led to dividend yields in many growth areas climbing to relatively impressive levels. Since February, as the liquidity shock gradually dissolves, the market is expected to gradually bottom out, and the probability of A-shares going similar to 2016 has further increased.

Soochow Securities

2024 is the starting point of a new round of bull market in A-shares, and core assets are expected to usher in valuation repair

Soochow Securities believes that 2024 is the starting point of a new round of bull market in A-shares, and core assets are expected to usher in valuation repair and growth styles will rise.

On the one hand, the current decline in core assets has exceeded the decline based on fundamental understanding, and the odds trading of core assets is obviously attractive, and valuations are expected to recover. Subsequently, the trend decline in U.S. bonds and the efforts of domestic policies will lead to the narrowing of the nominal growth gap between China and the United States, and the expectation of a fundamental recovery is expected to increase, thereby driving the valuation repair of core assets.

On the other hand, changes in U.S. Treasury yields have a significant impact on the A-share style, and the decline in U.S. bond interest rates will be good for the growth style of A-shares, while the previously relatively dominant micro-cap and high-dividend styles will be relatively weak. From the perspective of the denominator, even if the resilience of the U.S. inflation and labor market disrupt market expectations in the short term, causing short-term fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the trend of marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy has not changed, and 2024 is still the starting point for interest rate cuts. From the perspective of capital, the return of incremental funds will improve on-exchange liquidity and regain "pricing power", and the growth style preferred by foreign and domestic institutions is expected to rise, while the micro-cap and high-dividend styles may be relatively weak.

CITIC Securities

The rebound is step-by-step, and the defense turns to balance

CITIC Securities issued a report saying that the liquidity cycle chain negative feedback has ended under the strong external intervention before the holiday, since January, there is no lack of bright spots in the stable economic operation, the policy is expected to be more flexible and adaptable this year, the current investor sentiment has stabilized, and the theme of science and technology has emerged as a new catalyst, it is recommended to take a step by step in the rebound process, pay close attention to the confirmation signal on the right side, and shift from pure defense to balance in the configuration, focusing on the two main lines of high-quality dividend blue chips and scientific and technological growth.

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