How long can the market be red?

On February 19, today is the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, and A-shares are off to a good start. Today the Shanghai Composite Index

4

Lianyang, how long can the market be red? Some friends said that today's popularity is not cool, and there is no "big red". It should be emphasized that the Year of the Dragon is a "structural bull market", and there is no rush to make money in the stock market.

First of all, the accumulation of silicon can reach thousands of miles, and a small rise is also a rise, at least to earn back the time value of holiday funds

Secondly, the key to the structural bull market lies in the structure, not all stocks will rise, but the valuation of some core assets will rise, and after the general rise, the valuation of concept stocks and bubble stocks will gradually return.

Thirdly, there are opportunities in three directions. Judging from the beginning of the year, investors have focused on three aspects recently:

One is a high-dividend weighted stock.

SSE 50, CSI 500 and other indices correspond to the weight, there are many core assets in the corresponding weighted stocks of the index, the A-share market has expanded, and the oversupply of stocks will be the norm, and the country wants to rebuild investor confidence through price repair, at this time the national team and long-term funds are bound to achieve the goal by raising the index. Therefore, the weight will be favored by capital in the long run. At the same time, many stocks in the weight themselves are industry leaders, the phenomenon of 28 is everywhere, a small number of companies in the industry occupy a huge market share to gain scale advantages, with the intensification of competition, the concentration of almost all industries will be higher and higher, the leader kicks away the small players to occupy the market share of small players, and the big fish eats the small fish. Heavyweight stocks are the focus of investment in 2024, and the market of the top Chinese stocks in the weights has begun to bear fruit.

The second is AI. Sora has sparked another round of craze, and I can't help but sigh: OpenAI, "You can always give me a whole new trick". The application prospect of Sora is clear, Sora's ability is that text can generate ready-made, high-quality short videos, and the current media industry around the world is shifting from text to video, especially short videos, so

Sora was born out of necessity. Ask you how much time you spend in a day watching short videos, and in the future, these short videos are likely to be generated by AI. Of course, the emergence of Sora also shows that there is an objective gap between China and the United States in the field of AI, and China needs to think more about whether China is ready to meet the arrival of technology even if Sora technology is produced in China? Of course, from the perspective of investment, computing chips are still the main direction.

Sora's technology relies on the three major elements of talent, computing power, and data, and computing power is a shortcoming that the mainland cannot avoid.

As for the data, the video data is concentrated in the video platform, and from the perspective of investment, the short video self-media platform and the film and television video platform may benefit from this.

My article

already

The stock pool for the Spring Festival is given, and here I repeat it,

The direction of computing power includes: Haiguang Information, SMIC, Jingjiawei, Loongson Zhongke, Moore Threads, Bichen Technology, etc., which are worth paying attention to, while the data direction of Sora includes: ByteDance, Kuaishou, Tencent, etc.

Of course, the scope of investment is very large, and companies related to Wensheng video, multimodal AI and other sectors can pay attention, and the specific target can be selected according to personal preferences. At present, there is a gap between domestic video generation AI and Sora, so many stocks have concepts, which are short speculations, but the direction of computing power and data is evergreen, such as Nvidia wave after wave, and any wind and grass in the AI field can push up its stock price.

The third is the expectation of a positive fiscal policy. The two sessions of the National People's Congress will be held in March, and the direction of the budget will become clearer at that time. Many people ask me if I will engage in infrastructure construction in the Year of the Dragon, especially civil engineering, and I think there will be infrastructure, but it will not be large-scale civil construction, but it may be the main infrastructure in energy, communications, computing power, scientific research, etc.

The mainland's 12 key provinces must strictly control infrastructure investment, including Tianjin and Chongqing, two municipalities directly under the central government, and must strictly control new government investment projects. Including transportation, municipal, industrial parks, all kinds of buildings and halls and shantytown renovation. Schools, hospitals, gas, water supply and other livelihood facilities are excluded. Starting today, these 12 provinces will no longer be able to launch high-speed, subway, light rail and other projects at the local level unless the state approves it.

Investors can list the proportion of each department in the fiscal budget over the years to predict the direction of fiscal investment. In fact, the infrastructure construction part has been decreasing in the past few years, because infrastructure construction needs local financial support, and the main task of local finance in recent years has been to reduce debts; of course, it is impossible to increase debts while carrying out infrastructure construction, otherwise it will not be a left-hand fight? Judging from the central financial expenditure in recent years, the growth of people's livelihood expenditure is greater than that of infrastructure construction, and what is people's livelihood? Education, medical care, social security, employment, and housing security. In education, because the number of primary and secondary school students itself is decreasing, the funds for education expansion are more used for innovation in universities and scientific research institutions. Therefore, the financial expectations are focused on: the construction of energy networks, communication networks, computing power networks, the construction of scientific research facilities, and investment in education and medical care. In addition, the only variable in 2024 may be an increase in spending on housing security, which may be very different from previous years.

Lv Changshun (Cairns) Certificate number: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious]

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#1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .. 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]), body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0; 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