Views on the post-holiday A-share market

First, there is still some room for a rebound

The big cycle dominates the small cycle, the medium-term downward trend determines the height of this round of rebound is limited, the Shanghai Composite Index is difficult to 3000 points, and the small market represented by the CSI 1000 still has some room for rebound. After the Shanghai Composite Index reaches 2900 points, it should be defended, you can pay attention to northbound funds, if there is a large outflow in a single day or a medium-sized outflow for 2 consecutive days, the rebound may be over.

Stock price = (earnings × expected earnings growth rate next year ×dividend payout ratio) / (nominal risk-free rate + beta × market risk premium − expected earnings growth center)

The factors that affect the market include the expected earnings growth center, market risk appetite, risk-free interest rate, expected earnings growth rate next year, and dividend payout ratio. The main contradiction in the current market is the expected revenue growth center at the denominator end.

Whether China's economy can successfully achieve a soft landing in real estate and fiscal and tax reforms determines the expected growth center. Assuming that under normal circumstances, the expected nominal growth center is 5%+1.5%=6.5%, and Wind All A corresponds to a valuation of 18 times. If the actual growth rate is lower than the potential growth rate for a long time, it means that there is a risk of deflation. If the market expects a 1.9% decline in the nominal growth center, it is equal to 4.6% = 3% + 1.6% in 2023. Then the corresponding valuation of Wind All A is 1/(5.6%+1.9%)=13.3. A-shares still need to fall by 14%, and the actual decline could be even greater.

High dividends (in extreme cases, only repurchase dividends and no investment), a sharp increase in earnings next year, a sharp interest rate cut of 200bp, and an increase in market risk appetite can hedge against the decline in the expected growth center, and the low-valuation sector is less affected by the decline in the expected growth center.

Sectors whose growth rate is not expected to be affected by the macroeconomy, population, international situation, etc., can maintain stable valuations.

In January 2024, the scale of credit union financing exceeded expectations and was ultra-seasonal, but CPI and PPI continued to grow negatively for 4 consecutive months, and the possibility of a significant increase in corporate earnings in 24 years is very small. CATL predicts a profit of more than 40 billion yuan in 23 years, cash on the books will exceed 200 billion, and the repurchase amount will not exceed 3 billion. Therefore, in the medium term, it is difficult to change the downward trend of A-shares.

Offensive Sectors that can currently be held:

Technological growth: artificial intelligence, weight loss drugs, and Huawei's industrial chain.

Consumption upgrade targets with reasonable valuations: film and television media, games, tourism, and health.

Defensive plates that can be added at the end of the rally:

High dividend sectors: coal, oil and gas, highways, electricity, gas, banks.

Undervalued sectors with stable earnings and cash flows: telecom operators.

Some companies with abundant cash on their books and stable cash flow may increase market concentration through mergers and acquisitions, providing offensive opportunities.

OpenAI's first Wensheng video model, Sora, was officially unveiled, and the market value of the AI leader exceeded $1.8 trillion, and the stock price of AI "upstarts" once stood above the $1,000 mark. The Cpo sector, which is determined to benefit from the performance of A-share artificial intelligence, is expected to set sail again. Sectors such as artificial intelligence applications that cannot yet be realized may also be hyped when the market sentiment is good in the spring.

Jia Ling made a stunning return after disappearing for half a year, and successfully lost 100 pounds, which may cause weight loss fever.

Yu Chengdong, Executive Director of Huawei, CEO of Huawei's Device Business Group, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intelligent Vehicle Solution BU, posted on Weibo that the sales volume of Wenjie Auto has reached a record high. The next priority is to work with partners to ensure high-quality deliveries and get more new cars into the hands of consumers. AITO's full-year sales target for 2024 is 600,000 units.

2. Why is the A-share artificial intelligence sector underperforming U.S. stocks?

In April 2023, I wrote articles such as "Will Big Bull Stocks Emerge in Optical Modules Under the Wave of AI?", "Why Shouldn't 2013 Be Analogized to 2023?", "The AI-related Sectors of U.S. Stocks Are Far Less Rising Than A-Shares, Are U.S. Stock Investors More Stupid Than A-Share Investors?", suggesting the opportunities and risks of AI-themed investment. Since 2023, the two major industries of information and communication have led the rise of U.S. stocks, and many bull stocks in the field of artificial intelligence have emerged in the field of software and hardware, with supermicrocomputer and Nvidia hitting record highs. A-share artificial intelligence targets such as Cambrian, Industrial Fortune Union, Wanxing Technology, and Inspur Information fell by nearly half. Now the question becomes, why is the A-share AI sector underperforming U.S. stocks?

The differences between the trend of the artificial intelligence sector in China and the United States are:

1. U.S. artificial intelligence companies are supported by performance growth (valuation overdraft is not sustainable in the future and needs to match performance). For example, Nvidia has benefited from the shortage of supply, similar to the sudden explosion of PV demand, and polysilicon companies have seen significant growth in gross profit and net profit. In the future, with the release of production capacity, it is expected that the volume will rise and the price will fall, and the growth rate of revenue and profit will slow down.

Nvidia's revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 reached $18.120 billion, a year-on-year surge of 206%, and net profit reached $9.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1259%. The adjusted net profit was as high as 10.02 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 588%. Nvidia expects fourth-quarter revenue to be $20 billion, plus or minus 2%. Both exceeded analyst expectations. Cambrian expects to achieve operating income of 680 million yuan to 720 million yuan in 2023, compared with 729 million yuan in 2022, a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is expected to lose 756 million yuan to 924 million yuan, a decrease of 26.47% to 39.84% compared with the same period last year, and a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to lose 945 million yuan to 1.155 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.87% compared with the same period last year to 40.17%.

The implementation of deep learning algorithms is divided into three parts: data preprocessing, model training, and judgment and inference, of which the latter two links have higher requirements for the computing power of artificial intelligence chips. Therefore, from the perspective of application, artificial intelligence chips can be divided into training layer applicability and judgment inference layer applicability. At present, GPUs are temporarily in the mainstream position in the training process of deep learning. In the judgment and reasoning process, in addition to a small amount of CPU or GPU for computing, FPGAs and ASICs can play a significant role.

An NVIDIA H100 is mainly composed of three parts: the H100 die in the center is produced by TSMC South No. 18 factory, and the process node is "4N", and the price of a single piece is about 200 US dollars.

There are three HBM stacks on each side, each HBM chip has a capacity of 16GB, about $15 per GB, and the 6 chips add up to about $1500.

The outermost layer is TSMC's 2.5D CoWoS package, according to which overseas analyst Robert Castellano made a calculation that it would cost $723 to package an H100.

NVIDIA's main supply gap comes from the six HBMs on both sides of the logic chip and the CoWoS package that connects the logic chip and HBM. The Nvidia H100 costs about $3,300 and sells for more than $30,000, with a gross margin of 90%, nearly half of which comes from HBM3.

HBM is a DRAM memory chip based on a 3D stacking process. The technical principle is to stack multiple DDR chips vertically together, and connect the chips to each other through through-silicon vias (TSV) and micro-bumps (μBmps) technology, thus breaking through the existing performance limitations, greatly improving the memory capacity, and realizing higher bandwidth, higher bit width, lower power consumption, and smaller size DDR combined arrays. The cross-card communication speed is slow, and when the memory capacity of a single GPU is increased, the number of cross-card visits is reduced, and the performance is naturally significantly improved. The more large AI models and applications, the better it is for HBM manufacturers. On November 13, 2023, Nvidia launched the H200, an upgraded version of the H100, which actually only upgraded the HBM memory, and the rest of the GPU part remained unchanged at all.

From the perspective of the overall HBM market, the two Korean storage giants SK hynix and Samsung occupy an absolute monopoly position, with a combined market share of about 90%.

The HBM3 used in the NVIDIA H100 is the most advanced HBM product currently available from SK hynix, which is complex, costly, and has limited production capacity. HBM3 accounted for only about 8% of the HBM market in 2022. The previous generation of GPUs A100/A800 and AMD's MI200 use the backward HBM2E technology.

SK hynix expects HBM's share of the total DRAM market to reach 15-19% in 2024, and SK hynix's HBM3 and HBM3E production capacity for 2024 is fully booked, and customers are still discussing additional demand. According to market estimates, the supply of HBM bits will more than double annually in 2024, but new production capacity will not be released until the second quarter of 2024. According to Trendforce data, HBM3 is expected to account for more than 60% of the market by 2024, and memory chip manufacturers such as Samsung and Micron are actively deploying.

The theoretical physical limit of Moore's Law in the chip manufacturing process is 1nm, and advanced packaging can improve product performance and reduce costs at the same time, which has become a game-breaking solution in the post-Moore era. At present, the mainstream 2.5D packaging only TSMC's CoWoS process, followed by Intel's EMIB, Amazon uses Intel's EMIB process, EMIB process performance is slightly lower than TSMC's CoWoS process, but the price is much lower than TSMC. TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging solution is a combination of CoW and oS: the chip is first connected to the silicon wafer through the Chip on Wafer (CoW) packaging process, and then the CoW chip is connected to the substrate (on Substrate) to integrate into CoWoS. CoWoS technology greatly increases the interconnection density and data transmission bandwidth while reducing the package size, but the process is also very complex, so it is mainly used in the high-end market. According to media reports, TSMC CoWoS packaging is expected to achieve a monthly production capacity of about 14,500 to 16,600 pieces by the end of 2024.

2. Chinese companies are prohibited from obtaining high-end artificial intelligence chips by the U.S. government, resulting in a relatively lack of competitiveness in servers and other enterprises. On October 24, 2023, the supermicro computer server equipped with the NVIDIA GH200 Grace Hopper superchip began to ship, which is also the industry's first NVIDIA MGX series products. Although Inspur Information and Intel jointly released the world's first all-liquid-cooled cold plate server reference design, it can only obtain the Huawei Ascend 910B that is benchmarked against the NVIDIA A100. Although FII can also obtain Nvidia's chip production servers, it is only a foundry of Nvidia and can only earn processing fees.

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