"Huaxia Wine News" reporter Xu Feiyuan
2023 has been an unquiet year for the wine industry, with inflationary pressures forcing consumers to cut back on alcohol consumption and a sharp slowdown in the fine wine market, which has been performing well for many years.
But these are only a reflection of the state of the economy, and the deeper trends that are emerging could turn the wine world upside down. Felicity Carter, Executive Editor-in-Chief of The Drop, an American wine magazine, reveals seven trends in the wine industry for 2024.
The "border" of wine is broken
There are signs that consumers, especially young people, no longer consider themselves "wine drinkers", "beer drinkers" or "cocktail drinkers". Bryan Roth, an analyst at Feel Goods in the United States, said the lines between categories of goods are blurring. He gave an example in a recent interview: "Right now, we're talking about drinking a non-alcoholic artisanal soda from a brewery. He added, "Nobody cares about your fermentation ingredients. "This means that consumers don't care so much about whether they're drinking beer or wine, they just care about how it tastes.
Over the past 25 years, the choice of flavors has proliferated as consumer brands have tried to gain market share by increasing their variety, such as potato chips, which has grown from a handful of classic flavors to hundreds of different flavors today.
The same has happened in the wine industry over the past decade, with producers fermenting red wine in sherry, whiskey, and bourbon casks. There has also been a trend towards spiced wines in the short term, with Master of Wine Liz Thach writing in Forbes magazine that Stella Rosa has successfully launched spiced wines. According to Nielsen, Stella Rosa pineapple pepper wine became the best-selling new wine of the year in the United States.
For most wine producers, adding fruit or spices to wine is an obnoxious thing. But when it comes to artisanal vinification, there are more and more ways of "co-fermenting" grapes and fruits, and more of these wines are expected as "blurred boundaries" wines become more profitable.
Canned wine is popular
"Boundaries" become blurred not only between categories, but also between different occasions. In the past, sports meant beer and dinner meant wine, but this is changing, especially among younger drinkers, who are actively looking for canned drinks to suit different occasions – whether it's canned cocktails, mockers or wine.
According to Grand View Research, the global canned wine market will grow at a CAGR of 12.3% by 2028, reaching a market size of $571.8 million or more. This is driven by "growing consumer demand for convenient, portable and single-serve beverages," the report said.
In 2019, Sarah Hoffman and Kendra Kawala co-founded Maker Wine, a canned wine brand in the United States, with 40,000 passionate followers on the direct selling platform DtC. Since its launch, the company has surpassed $5 million in total sales, sold more than 350,000 cans in 2023, and is the number one retailer for canned wine.
To reach a new wine audience, producers should consider canned wines.
Embrace low and alcohol-free
No one will be surprised by the dramatic growth in low- and non-alcoholic beverages in recent years, especially in key markets such as the US, UK, Germany, Spain and France, as well as Australia and Japan.
According to IWSR, sales in the alcohol-free and low-alcohol categories have already reached $11 billion and are expected to exceed $24 billion by 2032.
This trend is reflected in some of the most well-known retailers that specialise in non-alcoholic beverages: Nix & Nix in the Netherlands, Boisson in the United States and Club Soda in the United Kingdom all report non-alcoholic wines as one of their most popular products.
The big liquor companies are so sure that alcohol-free is the way of the future, and as a result, they are investing heavily.
Red wine "whitening"
Meininger's 2023 report that France's Rhône Valley appellation has set a goal to transform its image from a red wine region to a predominantly white wine region.
Not only the Rhône valley appellation, but also many regions dominated by red wine are "turning white". The reason is simple – the consumption of red wine is declining as consumers pursue fresher styles, especially white and sparkling wines. In France, the consumption of red wine has fallen by 32% in the last decade.
This is partly a consequence of global warming – as the weather warms up and summers get longer, red wine becomes less attractive.
According to a Fact report on the global white wine market, global white wine sales grew by nearly 5% to a total value of $39 billion by the end of 2022. Its analysts say the market will continue to expand and reach around $67 billion by the end of 2033.
Blending "eclectic"
When Dave Phinney launched his red blend, The Prisoner (meaning "prisoner"), in 2000, he probably didn't know he had created a whole new type of wine.
Dave has a mastery of wine blending and has the courage to think outside the box in search of new aromas and tastes. He is best known for his Zinfandel work, which is a mix of Cabernet Sauvignon, Petite Sirah, Syrah and Charbono. This wine is full of personality and tantalizing flavors, and it is an instant hit.
Until then, "red wine blends" usually referred to blends from a specific region. Examples include Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot and Cabernet Franc from Bordeaux.
The big wine companies realized that this new style was popular among millennial men. Equally appealing is the fact that any red grape variety can be blended together without having to adhere to strict regional rules.
This was followed by Gallo's Apoic, followed by Treasury Wine Estate's 19 Crimes, followed by red wines fermented in bourbon barrels, giving them a smoky flavor and trying to attract whisky lovers. The strategy worked, and when you type "bourbon cask wine" into Google, dozens of them pop up — and they're all selling for relatively high prices.
Florian Ceschi, director of Ciatti Europe, calls the wines "more powerful and intense" and says they are still thriving: "It's a very lucrative category at the moment. ”
Wine tourism or "not meant to be wine"
Good Housekeeping magazine reported a 70% increase in visitors booking visits on the theme of food and wine, and predicts that by 2024, tourists will make food and wine their top choice.
图片来源：Meininger's International
Euromonitor predicts that travel and tourism will grow faster than the global economy, albeit at a slower pace than in 2023. "Growth is expected to slow to 16% in 2024 as the 'revenge travel' frenzy subsides and rising prices gradually erode consumers' desire to travel. ”
Paradoxically, at the moment, two main wine trends are clashing with each other. There are reports from wine regions that more and more "non-drinkers" are coming here who want to learn about wine and hear how it's made, but don't actually want to drink it.
The health trend is all the rage
"January Alcohol Withdrawal" is here again, and more people are signing up to quit drinking than ever before. Last year, a whopping 15 percent of U.S. adults pledged not to drink alcohol this month, though there is no record of how many actually did.
As reported in Meininger's magazine, the World Health Organization has been constantly promoting the dangers of alcohol, and consumers have responded by cutting back on the amount of alcohol they drink, or simply quitting drinking, which has had a huge impact on the wine trade.
Without a doubt, this is the number one problem facing the wine world right now, and there seems to be no easy solution. Research on wine and health is very delicate and complex, and it is not easily translated into media rhetoric.
The only thing the wine industry can do is to set an example of moderate consumption at all times, offering the ideal food and wine pairings possible in wine cellars and consumer tastings.
Then it's just a matter of waiting. In the short term, the situation may become more difficult, but it is also important to believe that wine has been a part of human civilization throughout history, and it must have a long-term and far-reaching significance.
（本报记者 译自Meininger's International）