Although everyone's view of the corn market after the year is generally pessimistic, just after the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, corn will stage a series of declines, which is really unexpected.
Yesterday we mentioned that just after the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, the market has not had time to take a breath, and the corn market has come to a "head stick", to be honest, this stick smashed the market a little dizzy.
Shandong and Northeast China fell together, and it seems that they have returned to the market at the beginning of the year.
However, although it is also a decline, the fall of corn after the year reflects several major events:
First, the pressure on corn in the Northeast is still very high.
Although according to the statistics of the previous year, the progress of corn sales in Northeast China has exceeded half, and the selling pressure has decreased. However, judging from the performance after the year, Northeast corn has fallen for several days, and there have been many declines in the market within a day, indicating that the selling pressure after the year is still not light.
Although it is said that the progress of grain sales has caught up before the year, the progress after the year has stagnated.
On the one hand, corn fell again, which made the wait-and-see mentality of traders and intermediate links such as drying towers begin to increase again, and the main body of grain collection has decreased, once again forming a situation in which deep processing is dominant.
On the other hand, although the pressure on grain sources at the grassroots level has been reduced, the enthusiasm for selling grain after the year has also begun to increase, after all, there is still grain on the ground in the follow-up, and everyone also wants to avoid the limelight of grain lying on the ground intentionally or unintentionally, so the willingness to sell grain is greater than the willingness to sell grain.
Second, the pressure is mainly concentrated in Heilongjiang and Jilin.
From a regional point of view, the main area of the current decline in the Northeast is concentrated in Heilongjiang, which is also the area with the most market controversy before. It took the lead in rising before, and now it is leading the decline, which once again shows that the selling pressure of corn in this place is still very large, and it is not easy.
And not only Heilongjiang, Jilin may soon follow in the footsteps.
Why?
Because of the weather.
Since the beginning of the New Year, the weather has continued to warm, which has caused a lot of trouble to the ground grain, coupled with the late Chinese New Year this year, the year after the year is basically to the end of February, to the spring back to the earth in March, the temperature rises, and the time left for the ground grain is less and less.
Therefore, the mentality of selling grain is also more eager, and it is more likely to be affected by external factors.
Third, Shandong is still "watching the car and getting off the plate", and the probability of big rises and falls is not large.
After the year, Shandong corn also appeared to connect the decline, and then look at the amount, it is understandable that as of February 16, the number of trucks in front of Shandong deep processing has increased to more than 500, in Shandong practice "look at the car under the dish", so corn fell again.
However, we also believe that the probability of Shandong and North China continuing to fall sharply is not large, but the probability of the same rise is also very low, so it is more likely to continue to rise and fall.
The reason is that the amount of Shandong is unstable, in addition to the influence of mentality and emotions, the weather is another major factor. That is, the fourth major event that will affect the corn market after the year: the weather.
The weather complexity after the year is no less than that of the previous year, for example, according to the weather forecast, the first wave of cold wave in the year of the dragon can be said to be on the way.
And its pioneer has penetrated deep into the southern part of the mainland, with the continuous development of the cold wave airflow, a new round of rain and snow cooling weather is about to be put on the agenda.
Among them, the northern region is undoubtedly still the strongest cooling area, and many places in the north will have a significant cooling, with a drop of 6 to 18 °C, and rain and snow will also be on the line, among which Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and other places are the most obvious, and Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, Hubei and other places are second.
So the market after the year is far more complicated than the year before, the above four things have already messed up the corn market, and the fifth factor - policy has not yet been shot.
However, this also seems to reflect an important feature of this year's corn, that is, bullish or bearish may not be the theme, more of a "stable" word first, the room for rise or fall is limited, and timely adjustment of psychological expectations may be the right solution.
At the end of this article, thank you for reading!