A study by Beijing Normal University predicts that by 2035, there will be a surplus of nearly 1.5 million primary school teachers and 370,000 junior high school teachers in the mainland, and a total of nearly 2 million teachers will face a surplus. In other words, nearly 2 million teachers will be unemployed.
In fact, demographic changes affect all industries, and education is no exception. As the number of births continues to decline, so does the number of kindergartens and primary schools, which also has a direct impact on the demand for teachers.
The demographic situation in our country does not look optimistic at the moment, the number of births plummeted to 9.02 million last year, and there is also a negative population growth. This trend has led to a decrease of 5,610 kindergartens and 5,162 primary schools and 810,000 students nationwide. Moreover, this is the first time in nearly 15 years that the number of kindergartens has decreased.
At the same time, the number of teachers is increasing. From 172,000 applicants for the teacher qualification examination in 2012 to 11.442 million in 2022, an increase of 66 times in the past 10 years!
As of 2022, the number of teachers in the mainland has reached 18.804 million, an increase of more than 4 million from 10 years ago. This increase raises the question: why is the number of newborns decreasing while the number of teachers is increasing?
In fact, this also reflects the status and attractiveness of the teaching profession in the mainland.
Although the salary of teachers is not high, it has many other advantages that cannot be compared with other professions, such as winter and summer vacations, free time, and being respected. That's why everyone loves to be a teacher.
However, demographic changes have brought great challenges to the teaching profession. It is reported that Beijing, Ningbo, Guiyang and other places have begun to pilot the teacher withdrawal mechanism and implement the survival of the fittest.
Xiamen and other places are implementing the evaluation system, that is, there is a teacher status but no establishment. All these indicate that the teaching profession will no longer be as stable as in the past, but will need to continue to learn and improve in order to keep their jobs.
In areas with declining populations, primary schools are likely to shrink first, while rural and private primary schools may bear the brunt of closures. As a result, teachers who do not have a staff may be the first to be laid off, while teachers who have a staff may move to the city.
At present, the ratio of teachers to students in primary schools has reached 1:19, which is seriously overstaffed. In the future, the competition for urban teacher positions will be more fierce, and the elimination will be more cruel.
However, despite the enormous challenges, I am confident that there will not be a drastic decrease in the number of teachers applying for the exam. Against the backdrop of a global economic downturn, people are eager to get a stable career. While there are many challenges to the teaching profession, there are also advantages that cannot be replaced by other professions, such as stability and benefits.
This year, there has been a surge in the number of people taking public exams, reflecting people's desire for stable careers. 2,252,000 people took the public entrance examination, an increase of more than 700,000 over last year. On the contrary, for the first time, the number of graduate students showed negative growth. This shows that in the current economic environment, people pay more attention to career stability and benefits, rather than simply pursuing academics.
Not to mention, the competition in all walks of life is fierce, and it is very difficult, come on.