On the eve of CPI, the rally of chip stocks was temporarily suspended, the S&P temporarily left the record high, Nvidia still closed at a new high, and the Chinese concept started the year of the dragon
As investors awaited the release of blockbuster economic data such as the U.S. CPI this week, as well as a group of Federal Reserve officials speaking publicly, the rally in chip stocks was suspended, and the broader U.S. stock market, which had been rising for a month, pared its rally on Monday, and the S&P fell to a record high. After it was reported that it would enter the custom cloud computing chip business including AI processors at the end of last week, Nvidia's stock price hit a record high, surpassing Amazon in market value for the first time in two decades, but then rose and fell, once turned down, and gave up most of the intraday gains by the close. Last Friday's successful conclusion to the Year of the Rabbit Chinese concept stocks rose even better, and the Year of the Dragon is off to a good start.
As of last week, major stock indices have been up for five consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 has set a record for the fastest break through the 1,000-point marker and has recorded its best winning streak since 1972, and its price-to-earnings ratio is close to the peak of the previous bull market. Some short-selling investors believe that a drawdown is a matter of time. Comments that the S&P has broken through the technically overbought level have prompted some investors to believe that the S&P will at least enter a period of consolidation.
Zero-day expiration options (0DTE) triggered a retracement in the broader market during two waves of intraday declines
Before the release of U.S. CPI on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively during the European stock market on Monday, prices rebounded, and the U.S. stock market announced in early trading that the New York Fed announced consumer inflation expectations for the next three years hit the lowest on record, and U.S. Treasury yields accelerated their intraday recovery, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the interest-rate-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching the highest since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December, but the rally did not last, and U.S. stocks rose and fell intraday.
In the currency market, the U.S. dollar index extended its gains after the release of U.S. consumers' medium-term inflation expectations, approaching a nearly three-month high set a week ago, before turning lower. The commentary said that the dollar entered a consolidation ahead of the CPI release, and after the release of strong non-farm payrolls growth data earlier this month, the market has already priced in an increasingly unlikely Fed rate cut in March, with a rate cut in May expected to be relatively more likely. Bitcoin, which rose more than 10% last week, rose further, not only surpassing the high set in January when US regulators approved the listing of bitcoin spot ETFs, but also breaking the $5 trillion mark intraday for the first time in more than two years.
Among commodities, international crude oil erased a nearly 2% decline in intraday trading, and finally cloth oil closed slightly lower, while U.S. oil rose slightly, continuing to refresh the closing high since the end of January, and the longest consecutive day of gains in five months. Demand-side concerns offset tensions in the Middle East, the commentary said. According to CCTV, Yemen's Houthi rebels said on Monday local time that they fired multiple missiles at a U.S. ship in the Red Sea. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said on the same day that Saudi Arabia informed Saudi Aramco earlier this month that it would halt its plans to expand production capacity for the sake of energy transition, saying that Saudi Arabia has a large amount of spare capacity to buffer the oil market. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company was still prepared to ramp up production if needed, saying it had about 3 million barrels of spare capacity.
The S&P Nasdaq stopped its four-day winning streak The Dow rebounded to a record high Nvidia's market capitalization once surpassed Amazon's AI concept stocks and Chinese concept stocks to outperform the market
The three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed in early trading before rising broadly. The S&P 500 index, which opened slightly higher, turned down more than once at the beginning of the session, and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which opened slightly higher, turned down several times in early trading, and got rid of the decline after opening about an hour, and when the daily high was refreshed at the end of the morning, the S&P rose more than 0.4%, and the Nasdaq rose nearly 0.6%, and failed to turn up again after turning down at midday, and when the daily low was refreshed, the S&P fell nearly 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell nearly 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened slightly lower, maintained its rally after turning higher at the beginning of the session, rising more than 250 points, or nearly 0.7%, at midday to refresh its daily high.
S&P futures also turned lower intraday
The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed up 1.75%, outperforming the broader market, rising for three consecutive days and updating its closing high since December 28, 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index closed down 0.44% after midday trading, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 Index, closed down 0.61% after midday trading, both falling to three consecutive days of closing all-time highs.
Chip stocks generally fell back intraday after three consecutive days of gains. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX both rose as much as 1.7% in early trading before turning lower at midday and closing down nearly 0.2%, both falling to all-time highs set on Friday. Venture into the data center chip customization business challenge Broadcom's Nvidia stock price rose more than 1% in early trading, the market value has surpassed Amazon, rose to $746.11 in early trading, continued to hit a record high in the day, rose more than 3.4% in the day, and then continued to fall, at noon had turned down, closed up nearly 0.2%, two consecutive trading days to hit a record high; Arm, which rose more than 60% after the announcement of its excellent earnings report last week, continued to rise, rising 42.3% in the morning when it hit a record high in the morning, and closed up 29.3% In the last three trading days since the announcement of the financial report, it has risen by more than 90%; by the close, Broadcom fell by more than 1%, while Intel and Qualcomm rose by more than 1%.
By the close of trading on Monday, Arm had risen by more than 90% in three days after the announcement of its earnings report
Most of the leading technology stocks retreated. Tesla, which has risen for four consecutive days to close at a high level since January 24, turned up 0.6% in early trading, and then turned down and the decline expanded, closing down nearly 3%.
Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, Microsoft, which hit a record closing high for three consecutive days as of last Friday, closed down nearly 1.3%, Amazon, which rebounded to a two-year high on Friday, turned lower at the beginning of the session, closing down 1.2%, Apple, which rebounded slightly on Friday, closed down 0.9%, Google's parent company Alphabet, which promised to provide 25 million euros to help Europeans learn to use AI, closed down 1%, and Netflix, which rebounded to a closing high since February 1 last Friday, rose more than 1% in early trading and closed down 0.6%; Meta, the parent company of Facebook, which ended last Friday, rose more than 2% in early trading and closed up nearly 0.2%, starting to approach the all-time high set after the earnings report last Friday.
Nvidia's intraday market capitalization has surpassed Amazon's
Most AI concept stocks continue to rise and outperform the market. By the close, Supermicro Computer (SMCI), which had risen more than 9% in intraday, closed up 4.4%, rising for six consecutive days and hitting a record closing record high on six days, C3.ai (AI) rose more than 9%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose nearly 6%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) rose nearly 4%, Palantir (PLTR) rose nearly 3%, and Adobe (ADBE) fell more than 2%.
AI chip benchmark Nvidia rose more than 3% in early trading and then turned down in midday, and AI concept stock SMCI closed up more than 4%
Popular Chinese concept stocks generally continued to rise and outperformed the market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose more than 3% in early trading to close up nearly 2.1%, after turning higher in intraday trading on Friday, rising for two consecutive days to close at its highest level since January 12. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively. Two bitcoin mining machine giants, Canaan Technology and Ebang International, closed up nearly 17% and 8%, respectively. The three new car-making forces failed to continue to rise together, Xpeng Motors rose more than 7% in early trading, Weilai Automobile rose more than 5%, closing up nearly 4% and about 2.5% respectively, and Li Auto, which had risen 2.5% in early trading, closed down nearly 0.8%. Among other stocks, at the close, Lu Holdings rose more than 7%, Dada rose more than 5%, Douyu rose more than 4%, Pinduoduo, Station B, Kingsoft Cloud rose more than 3%, iQiyi rose nearly 3%, Jingdong rose more than 2%, Alibaba, NetEase, Tencent Fan Single rose more than 1%, and Baidu rose nearly 1%.
The bank stock index continued to rise in unison. The KBW Bank Index (BKX), an indicator of the overall banking sector, closed up nearly 1.6%, rising for two consecutive days to close at its highest level since January 31, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up 1.8%, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed up nearly 2.2%, both rising for three consecutive days to close at its highest level since January 31.
Among regional banks, New York Community Bank (NYCB), which rose nearly 17% on Friday, rose more than 1% in early trading to close down 0.2%, failing to continue its gains after Friday to disclose that executives such as the CEO had bought more than 200,000 shares. Alliances Bank of the West (WAL) and Keycorp (KEY) closed up nearly 2%; Zions Bancorporation (ZION) closed up nearly 3%.
Among the volatile stocks, Bitcoin led the cryptocurrency concept stocks to rise, MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Marathon Digital (MARA) closed up about 11% and 14% respectively, and after announcing that it would acquire peer Endeavor for $26 billion, Diamondback Energy (FANG), a U.S. shale oil and gas producer that will create the world's third largest oil and gas giant, rose more than 10% in early trading to close up 9.4%; Gilead Sciences (GILD), which has expanded its pipeline of products other than HTV drugs, rose 2% in early trading to close up nearly 1.1% after agreeing to acquire biopharmaceutical company CymaBay Therapeutics, while CymaBay (CBAY) closed up 25.4%; Apparel manufacturer VF Corp (VFC) closed up 14% after the CEO disclosed that he had purchased 65,000 shares of the company and the media said that his founding family backed active investor Engaged Capital; Pharma company Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA) closed up 7.5% after Piper Sandler upgraded its rating from neutral to overweight, believing that its improved brand mix and capital mix are conducive to a recovery and expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio, while discount retailer Big Lots (BIG) closed down 28% after Loop Capital downgraded its rating from hold to sell, citing its deteriorating financial position and declining popularity among consumers.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index, which had fallen slightly in recent days, rebounded. The Euro Stoxx 600 index updated its closing high since January 6, 2022, set last Tuesday. Stock indexes of major European countries rose, led by the Italian stock index closing up nearly 1%, rising for three consecutive days, hitting a new closing high since June 2008, and the German, French and Spanish stocks that fell back last Friday rebounded, and German stocks refreshed the record closing high set last Tuesday, and British stocks closed slightly higher for three consecutive days.
Among the various sectors, real estate closed up nearly 1.5% to lead the gains, retail sales rose nearly 1.4%, and technology led by last Friday closed up 0.1%, up for eight consecutive days, among the constituent stocks, Europe's highest market capitalization chip stocks, the Netherlands-listed ASML closed up nearly 0.2%, closing at a record high for eight consecutive trading days, up about 35.4% since January 15, supporting the Dutch stock index to hit a record high for three consecutive days, while the medical sector closed down 0.3% against the market, among the constituent stocks, Novo Nordisk, the highest European pharmaceutical company listed in Denmark, closed down nearly 0.2% , falling to the all-time high of the close set by last Friday's rally.
Among other stocks, private equity firm L Catterton offered to acquire a 36% stake and take it private, Italy-listed luxury shoe maker Tod's jumped 18.4%, and online food delivery platform Delivery Hero rose 4.5% and peer Just Eat Takeaway rose 8.8% after Deutsche Bank raised its price target, leading the gains in the Stoke 600 constituents.
The two-year Treasury yield turned lower after approaching its highest level since the December Fed meeting
Yields retreated after last week's plunge in European government bond prices, partly due to recent dovish rhetoric from ECB officials. ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Italy President Fabio Panetta said over the weekend that the time is coming to reverse the monetary policy stance, inflation has fallen rapidly, and a late and aggressive rate cut could cause market turmoil. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year British government bond, which had risen to 4.10% on Friday to refresh the highest since December 5, closed at 4.05%, down about 3 basis points on the day, the 2-year British bond yield closed at 4.51%, down about 6 basis points on the day, the benchmark 10-year German bund yield closed at 2.36%, down about 2 basis points on the day, off the high since December 1, which rose above 2.39% on Friday, and the 2-year German bond yield closed at 2.68%, down about 3 basis points on the day.
The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield broke through 4.15% in the European stock market intraday to refresh the daily low, down about 3 basis points in the day, and then rebounded, the U.S. stock market rose above 4.19% in early trading, refreshing the high since the first day of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 19, approaching the high since the first day of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 13, which fell below 4.17% after retreating at noon, and was about 4.18% at the end of the bond market.
The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, fell below 4.45% in the European stock market to refresh the daily low, and the U.S. stock market was close to 4.49% in early trading, approaching the high since December 13 when it was forced to 4.50% on Friday, and the U.S. stock market broke 4.48% at noon and then broke through 4.47% at the end of the bond market, falling about 1 basis point in the day and falling back after rising for three consecutive days.
The two-year Treasury yield turned lower intraday on Monday, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended up roughly unchanged from Friday's level
The U.S. dollar index turned lower after trading near a three-month high Bitcoin rose above $50,000 intraday for the first time in more than two years
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major currencies, including the euro, fell below 103.90 before the European market, hitting a daily low of 103.895, down 0.2% on the day (Last Friday's close at 104.111, European stocks maintained their rally after the open, U.S. stocks were close to 104.30 in early trading to refresh the daily high of 104.279, rising intraday, rising above 104.60 to 104.604 last Monday, rising to 105.732 on November 14, 2023, and then retreating, U.S. stocks turned down at midday and approached 104.00, and then turned slightly higher.)
By the close of the U.S. stock market on Monday, the dollar index was trading just below 104.20 at 104.17, up less than 0.1% on the day, and the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the greenback against 10 other currencies, edged up during the day, and the dollar index did not continue to fall on Friday.
Among the non-U.S. currencies, the yen turned down intraday, approaching the intraday low of more than two months, the dollar against the yen fell below 149.00 in the European stock market to refresh the daily low, and then continued to rebound, the U.S. stock market turned up at the beginning of the morning close to 149.50, approaching the high level since November 27, the U.S. stock closed above 149.30, a slight rise in the day; the euro against the dollar rose above 1.0800 in the European stock market, refreshing the high since February 2 set last Friday, the European stock market turned down in the morning and generally maintained a downward trend, the U.S. stock market turned up at noon, the U.S. stock closed slightly down during the day, and the pound against the dollar rose above 1.2650 before the European stock market to refresh the daily highU.S. stocks fell below 1.2610 to refresh the daily low before the market, and U.S. stocks turned up again at midday, and U.S. stocks hovered at 1.2630 at the close, rising slightly during the day, not approaching the low level since December 23, which fell below 1.2520 last Monday.
The offshore yuan (CNH) fell to 7.2254 against the US dollar in the Asian market, refreshing its position since January 17, and European stocks generally maintained their rally after the pre-market rally, and the US stock market rebounded with the US dollar in early trading and turned down in the short term, and the US stock market refreshed the daily high of 7.2128 at noon, up 126 points from the daily low. At 4:59 on February 13, Beijing time, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.2152 yuan against the US dollar, up 35 points from the end of last Friday in New York, ending a three-day losing streak.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $47,800 in the European stock market to refresh the daily low, and accelerated since the pre-market of the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock rose above $49,000 in early trading, broke through the $50,000 mark at the beginning of the afternoon session, and rose above $50,200 at noon, continuing to refresh the high since December 2023, rising more than $2,000 and more than 5% from the daily low, and the U.S. stock market closed above $50,100, up more than 4% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin rose above $50,000 intraday for the first time since December 2021
London tin rose more than 3% to a new half-year high, London copper and lun zinc stopped falling three times in a row, and gold fell to a two-week low for three consecutive years
Base metals futures in London were mostly higher on Monday. Lunxi, which rose more than 3%, led the gains, rising for five consecutive trading days, hitting a new high in half a year since August last year. London copper and London zinc, which have fallen for three consecutive days, have come out of the lows in the past three months and more than five months respectively. London nickel, which has fallen for two consecutive days, also rebounded, bidding farewell to the low since November 2020 set last Friday. London aluminum, which fell back on Friday, did not continue to fall to the two-week low set on Monday. The London lead fell for four consecutive years and continued to hit a two-month low.
Gold futures in New York refreshed the daily high of $2041.8 in the pre-market of U.S. stocks, up nearly 0.2% during the day, and maintained a downward trend after turning down, and U.S. stocks fell to a new daily low of $2025.4 in early trading, down nearly 0.7% during the day.
Finally, COMEX April gold futures closed down 0.28% at $2,033.00 an ounce, falling for three consecutive trading days and refreshing the lowest level since January 29 for three consecutive days.
Spot gold in the U.S. stock market before the rise above $2027.50 to refresh the daily high, up more than 0.1% in the day, U.S. stocks before the market turned down after the overall downward trend, U.S. stocks intraday has tested $2012, refreshed the low since January 25, down more than 0.6% in the day, at noon had a short-term turn up, U.S. stocks closed hovering at $2020 line, down about 0.2% in the day.