When we woke up, the country faced three problems

Egypt is an important country in the Middle East and Israel's partner for peace. But recently, Egypt has found itself in a dilemma, having to make a difficult choice between war, refugees and peace.

I. War: the humanitarian crisis in Gaza

According to a report on the website of the New York Times on February 10, Egypt is now under increasing pressure from the war. More than half of Gaza's population is crammed into Rafah, a small city near the Egyptian border, where Israeli military operations leave them with nowhere to run.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also threatened to occupy the area, and he instructed the army on the 9th to consider withdrawing civilians from Rafah to clear the way for a new offensive against Hamas. But it is not clear where these people can go.

Gaza is an area of only 360 square kilometers with a population of nearly 2 million people, and has been called "the most crowded place in the world". Ever since Israel occupied Gaza in 1967 during the Third Middle East War, it has become a place of blockade, poverty and instability.

In 2005, Israel withdrew its troops from Gaza, but still controls Gaza's airspace, sea and borders. In 2007, Hamas seized power in Gaza, cutting ties with Israel and Egypt. Since then, Israel has launched a number of military strikes against Gaza, resulting in a large number of casualties and damage to infrastructure.

At present, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire, with a lack of basic services such as water, electricity, food, health care and education. The United Nations has warned that Gaza will be uninhabitable by 2025 if urgent measures are not taken.

2. Refugees: Egypt's closed borders

Unlike previous practices in regional conflicts, Egypt has not opened its borders to Palestinians fleeing the region, but has strengthened its border with Gaza. Egypt has also warned Israel that any move that leads to an influx of refugees from Gaza into its territory could jeopardize the decades-old Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, which has been a pillar of stability in the Middle East since 1979.

Egypt has received refugees from Syria, Yemen and Sudan in past conflicts in the region. However, in this war, it reacted very differently. This is out of concern for their own security and does not want the displacement of refugees to become a permanent consequence that would weaken the Palestinian will to establish a state.

Egypt's leaders are also concerned about Hamas stirring up militant sentiment in the country and expanding its influence in Egypt, which has been trying to combat Islamic militants and insurgency in the country for years.

Egyptian officials have urged the West to tell Israel that any move to force Gazans into the Sinai Peninsula would be seen as the end of the 1979 peace treaty, according to a senior Western diplomat based in Cairo. Another senior Western official, an American official and an Israeli official said Egypt's message was very straightforward and that the peace treaty would end as soon as the Israeli army drove the Gazans to Egypt.

Egypt has made it clear that if Palestinians are driven to the Sinai Peninsula, it will militarize its borders, perhaps using tanks, American officials say.

The border between Egypt and Gaza is about 14 kilometers long and is separated by a town called Rafah. It is the only exit from Gaza and a sensitive area in Egypt. Egypt has built a high wall and installed cameras and sensors to prevent smuggling and illegal border crossings.

Egypt has also discovered hundreds of underground tunnels here to transport weapons, fuel, food and other supplies to Gaza. The Egyptian military is constantly destroying these tunnels in order to cut off Hamas's supply lines.

Egypt's blockade of Gaza has also sparked domestic and international criticism. Some Egyptians believe that Egypt should show more sympathy and support for the people of Gaza rather than side with Israel. A number of international organizations and human rights groups have also called for Egypt to open its borders and allow more humanitarian aid and medical aid to enter Gaza.

3. Peace: The delicate relationship between Egypt and Israel

Although relations between Egypt and Israel have been dormant after more than 40 years of peace, the peace treaty between the two countries is one of the few stabilizing factors in this troubled region.

In 1979, Egypt and Israel, mediated by U.S. President Jimmy Carter, signed the historic Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty. It was the first Arab country to formally establish diplomatic relations with Israel and the first Arab country to reach a peace agreement with Israel.

Under the treaty, Israel withdrew its troops from the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt recognized Israel's legitimate existence, the two countries exchanged ambassadors, established trade and tourism exchanges, and cooperated in the military, security and other fields.

This peace treaty has laid the foundation for peace and stability in the Middle East, and has also brought benefits to Egypt and Israel. Egypt receives significant economic and military aid from the United States, and Israel receives strategic support and security guarantees from Egypt.

However, this peace treaty also isolated and opposed Egypt and Israel in the Arab world. Egypt had been expelled from the League of Arab States, and Israel had been seen as an enemy and aggressor. People-to-people exchanges between the two countries are also limited.

This peace treaty has also gone through many trials and crises. For example, in 1981, Egyptian President Anwar Anwar was assassinated, in 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, in 2000, the second Palestinian intifada broke out, in 2011, Egypt broke out in the Arab Spring, in 2013, the Egyptian military overthrew the Muslim Brotherhood government, in 2014, Israel launched a "defensive edge" operation against Gaza, in 2017, the United States recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, in 2020, Israel signed the "Abraham Accords" with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and so on.

During these events, relations between Egypt and Israel have been tense and at other times relaxed, but they have never completely broken down. The leaders and military officials of the two countries have also maintained close communication and coordination to deal with common threats and challenges, such as Iran's nuclear program, the civil war in Syria, the rise of the Islamic State, Turkey's interference, and so on.

Fourth, Egypt's difficult choice

There are no easy answers to the three difficult problems facing Egypt. Egypt must make a difficult choice between safeguarding its own interests, fulfilling its international obligations, and maintaining regional stability.

Should Egypt show more sympathy and support for the people of Gaza, or should it continue to maintain peace and cooperation with Israel? Should Egypt open its borders and allow more humanitarian aid and medical aid to enter Gaza, or should it be concerned about the influx of refugees and the infiltration of Hamas? Should Egypt exert greater leadership and influence in the Middle East, or should it remain low-key and cautious?

There are no standard answers to these questions, and there is no absolute right or wrong. Egypt's choice will affect the fate of Gaza and will also affect peace and stability in the Middle East.