Shenwan Hongyuan Lin Qixian: The trend of the AI large model industry is very certain, but we need to pay attention to the volatility of growth stocks

Since the advent of ChatGPT, the large model has made the generative AI track one of the most shining "stars" in the capital market.

Source | Brokerage China

Reporter|Zhou Chunmei

Throughout last year, generative AI and large language models have been a major investment thread running through the primary and secondary markets. With the continuous iteration and progress of large-scale model technology, a number of high-profile AI unicorn companies have been born, and related concepts in the secondary market have also emerged. However, large models are still in the early stage of scenario application and commercial implementation, and the large influx of early capital has caused the industry bubble to emerge. In the face of hot spots, risk factors also need to be faced and vigilant. 

On the occasion of the Chinese New Year, Lin Qixian, chief analyst of the media and Internet industry of the information research department of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, walked into the meeting room of the Securities Times and the Times, talked about her insights into the artificial intelligence model in 2024, and shared her investment experience and thinking. Lin Qixian believes that the ability of the model continues to improve, and multimodal directions such as video and 3D are the focus of the next stage of development. From the perspective of application, we can focus on the three major directions of "software and hardware integration" represented by productivity scenarios, consumer-level scenarios, and AI hardware. For investors, the development trend of the artificial intelligence industry is very certain, but in terms of stock selection and timing in the secondary market, it is also necessary to take into account the long-term certainty but short-term volatility of growth stocks in the "from 0 to 1" stage. 

01

Generative AI Moves to Applications,

Three types of directions deserve attention

Securities Times reporter:

2023 is the first year of the outbreak of generative AI, and we have also witnessed the grand occasion of the "100-model war", but now many people feel that more attention should be paid to the implementation of AI large models in specific industries.

Lin Qixian: We think this application direction can be divided into three categories. The first category is productivity scenarios, the second category is consumer-level scenarios, and the third category includes both productivity and consumer-level scenarios, but more emphasis is placed on the combination of hardware carriers, such as the "integration of software and hardware" represented by AI hardware.

We can do the analysis one by one. When we examine which directions have potential and which ones are implemented quickly, there will be several important criteria for the entire application of AI. The first is the richness of data, that is, if there is more accurate text data, it will be easier to be empowered by AI.

The second is that some industries with high labor costs are more likely to have the effect of improving ROI after being replaced by AI, so there is a stronger demand for AI. However, from the perspective of the speed of landing, industries with a relatively low fault tolerance rate will be relatively slow to land. In terms of productivity scenarios, software, which is more typical of idea generation and enterprise services, is the fastest landing we see now. In particular, scenarios such as text generation and image generation have begun to be commercialized overseas. Among them, in the scenario of enterprise services, such as office software, its core also uses the generation function of text and pictures. Since the fourth quarter of last year, we have seen some overseas giants start to promote to customers, and throughout 2024, we may see a gradual increase in paid penetration and average customer value.

Which ones are slower to land? That is, the parts of these general software that involve the understanding and generation of video and 3D capabilities, because there is no very mature commercial solution, so the implementation of these aspects will be slower. But we've seen that related technologies are advancing very quickly, such as Pica's explosion at the end of last year, which allows us to see the potential of video modalities.

From the perspective of some applications that focus more on subdivided scenarios, it is more typical to be in some industries where labor costs are relatively high and there is more accurate text data accumulation, such as law, medical care, finance, and education, which are all industries that have more and faster landing.

Let's take a few examples. For example, in the legal scene, the legal industry has a large number of accurate historical cases and text materials, and the labor cost of lawyers is also relatively high. If you have an AI assistant, you can help lawyers greatly improve the efficiency of handling desk work. Overseas, a lot of capital has flocked to this track. For another example, in cross-border marketing scenarios, due to the large number of cross-border communication text marketing work needs, we can use AI to improve the efficiency of processing copywriting materials and customer service communication. E-commerce is also a relatively fast landing scenario, and we see that many companies are already doing applications for model commercial photography to achieve functions such as one-click change of clothes.

In consumer applications, education and entertainment are more typical. For education, there have been cases like Duolingo overseas, which are mainly used in language learning scenarios. In the past, a difficulty that many online education companies did not solve was that the cost margin of teachers was not zero, so a lot of investment would be generated, and the scale was still not profitable. However, if there is an AI teacher, especially in the language learning scenario, it is equivalent to everyone having a teacher who practices speaking, and the marginal cost is relatively low. Therefore, in the educational scene of language learning, there are already very mature cases overseas.

One of the more typical application cases in the entertainment scene is emotional companionship. Whether it is Glow in China in the past or overseas Character.AI now, the essence is to use AI's ability to approach general artificial intelligence to provide everyone with a virtual companion who can meet the needs of emotional companionship. We have even seen that some products like Character.AI are overseas, and the core users can use them for up to 2 hours a day, and the stickiness is very high.

Another typical example is gaming. The application of the game can be viewed from two aspects, the first is to improve the experience of human-computer interaction, for example, we can put the function of love development in a scene of the game to interact, and make an intelligent NPC, which will produce a different interactive experience compared with the past. The second is that we can use it to lower the threshold for content production and make it a large-scale UGC game platform. In the past, everyone was also looking forward to forming a relatively large UGC content community in the game field like short videos, pictures, and text, but in the past, it has been difficult to achieve, because for an ordinary user, creating a game requires the help of many tools. If there is a qualitative leap forward in the 3D capabilities of AI in the future, then every player will be able to earn a return on investment by creating game content. From this point of view, the business model of games will change a lot.

In addition to productivity scenarios and consumer-level applications, the third type of AI application direction is the combination of hardware, such as AI PCs, AI Pins, intelligent driving, humanoid robots and other scenarios, and the core is the integration of software and hardware.

In the past, Internet innovation was more based on the popularity of PCs and mobile phones. However, compared with Internet innovation, the biggest difference between this round of AI innovation is that it starts with software, and it is an innovation driven by the iteration of large model capabilities. We see that since the second half of 2023, AI hardware has become a hot topic, and the integration of software and hardware has gradually become a trend. 

02‍

The industry trend is very certain,

But growth stocks are volatile

Securities Times reporter:

Although the concept of AI is very popular and there are many opportunities, as a new technology, many companies have not yet found a good business model and profit path.

Lin Qixian: There are several main aspects of risk. The first is that generative AI technology is evolving very fast and the implementation is also very fast, but the social rules of the past were built before the emergence and prosperity of AI, so the rapid application and popularization of AI will pose many challenges to our existing ethics, data security, and copyright protection.

For example, when it comes to copyright, domestic regulations also require AI companies to ensure that the data source for their model training meets the requirements of intellectual property protection. Overseas, we have also seen a lot of cases related to copyright litigation. For large model companies, it is very important to meet the requirements of intellectual property protection in the process of developing artificial intelligence.

The second is from the perspective of the development of the large model itself. The capabilities of large models are still improving, especially the understanding and generation of video and 3D, which will definitely be the focus of the next stage. In the process of iteration, if a company fails to keep up, the competitive landscape will change. Moreover, for model training, the entity list will also constitute a certain constraint, and the investment of funds will also be a very important bottleneck.

The third is from an application perspective. At present, many applications are mainly based on the existing capabilities of large models, but for many applications, when the model capabilities are iterated, if they do not adjust their product design according to the capabilities of the model in time, there is a risk of being subverted. There are also some application companies whose products are relatively simple and can easily be backward compatible with large models. In the primary market overseas, there have been many such cases in the past. Therefore, for investors, investing in AI, especially in the secondary market, has a very strong "from 0 to 1" investment stage characteristics. At this stage, there is a lot of uncertainty, especially in stock selection, there will be a certain degree of uncertainty. Although the AI model is very certain from the perspective of industry trends, we also need to take into account the characteristics of the "0 to 1" growth stock investment model at this stage.

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.wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.., wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 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9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .. 5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #ececec}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, .1)}} @media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-BG: #1E1E1E}}@media( prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--APPMSGCARD-LINE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6); --weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme: dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}