Vision Pro is on sale, and every time the reporter experiences it personally, the four advantages and four disadvantages of PK and the "change" of the throne of science and technology: Microsoft is the first, and Nvidia is approaching Google
Every reporter: Wen Qiao, Zheng Yuhang, Tan Yuhan
◎On February 2, Apple's Vision Pro headset went on sale. From the perspective of market acceptance, the outside world has mixed reviews for Vision Pro. The reporter also tried it on and shared the try-on experience. Can it translate into a sizable revenue driver? Can it be a game changer?
Vision Pro is on sale, and every time the reporter experiences it personally, there are four advantages and four disadvantages
On February 2, local time, Apple's much-anticipated Vision Pro headset went on sale in the United States, CEO Cook was present in person, and Apple stores in New York were crowded.
In Apple's vision, Vision Pro represents the beginning of spatial computing. Despite the hefty $3,499 price, the Vision Pro has taken off a craze on social platforms, with tech enthusiasts driving in headsets, exercising, crossing the street, riding the subway, and scrambling to post in-depth reviews.
But in stark contrast to the craze, the market's muted reaction was that Apple's stock price fell 0.54% on the day the Vision Pro went on sale. From February 2 to 8, Apple's stock price rose by only 1.33%.
From the perspective of market acceptance, the outside world has mixed reviews for Vision Pro. Some analysts believe that it may be difficult to translate into a significant revenue driver, while others believe that it is expected to be a game-changer for the industry in the future.
Dan Ives, managing director of WedBush Securities in the United States, said in a commentary email to the National Business Daily that Vision Pro represents a new beginning. With 2.2 billion active iOS devices worldwide, Apple's ecosystem will provide a huge market for it.
On the day the product was launched, some technology enthusiasts in China went to the American store to pick up the product for the first time. Every time the reporter found one of the Vision Pro enthusiasts for in-depth communication, and wore and experienced the product.
Vision Pro body Image source: Photo by reporter Zheng Yuhang
Vision Pro Hands-On: Four Pros and Cons
The Vision Pro has set off a craze on social platforms, and in addition to tech enthusiasts, major media outlets including The Verge, The Wall Street Journal, and CNBC have also published in-depth review articles. Combined with the reporter's personal experience and foreign media evaluation, we have roughly summarized the four advantages and disadvantages of Vision Pro.
Advantage 1: Stunning visual clarity
According to the feedback of the Apple enthusiast, "because the Vision Pro does not use real optical perspective, but records through multiple external cameras, and then forms light feedback to the human eye after processing through the built-in chip, the real experience latency is very low, which is more amazing." ”
Andrej Karpathy, co-founder of OpenAI, said on the X platform that the Vision Pro's visual clarity is far greater than any previous device, which is amazing. When you put on your device, content that is rendered entirely virtually, such as on-screen displays, is crystal clear and stress-free to read.
Image source: Vision Pro screenshot
Advantage 2: A creative "spatial computing" experience
According to CNBC's review, the Vision Pro offers a new type of experience that Apple calls "spatial computing." "You sit in your own world, look at the digital world, and then put different apps around you. "It's reminiscent of the iPhone era, when Apple introduced multi-touch displays, and it changed the way we interact with our phones." ”
Image source: Vision Pro screenshot
Karpathy commented on the experience, "I felt so creative when I designed and thought about how to lay out all the applications in my space. My mind was completely activated and my imagination was limitless. ”
Advantage 3: A leap forward in hand-eye tracking technology
For Vision Pro experiencers, their gaze is the equivalent of a pointer to the operation, and the device tracks the eye through sensors. CNBC, The Verge, and Karpathy all say that the accuracy of eye tracking has taken a leap forward, which is very impressive.
In practice, the enthusiast also reported that whether it is opening an app, viewing an album, watching a movie or browsing the web, the "eye movement" and "gesture" tracking are very smooth.
"Eye movement" and "gesture" tracking evaluation Image source: Photo by reporter Zheng Yuhang
Advantage 4: High connection with the Apple ecosystem
In many feedbacks, it is mentioned that the Vision Pro has a very high degree of integration with the Apple ecosystem. This is precisely due to Apple's desire to make the Vision Pro a complete device, alongside the Mac and iPad in Apple's ecosystem.
At the same time, the freshly baked Vision Pro has some imperfections.
Disadvantage 1: The user experience is not perfect
Karpathy believes that the Vision Pro deviates from Apple's usual brand image in a way. In some ways, the product may be highly polished, while in others it may be crude, underthought, or even clearly problematic. For example, he encountered bugs such as FaceID not being recognized and unlocking, and iMessage not being displayed normally.
After using it, the enthusiast also reported that after the user has a certain level of proficiency, he hopes to operate quickly, and there are also some small bugs in the "eye movement" and "gesture" tracking, such as wanting to select but never being selected, or deleting an important file directly by mistake, which makes people crazy. Just like the facial recognition and fingerprint recognition of the iPhone, it is easy to not recognize it after too long, and it needs to be reset. In the nearly a week I've been experiencing Vision Pro, I've reset my "eye movement" and "gestures" settings due to this issue.
"This gives the impression that the product has been rushed to market, with the basic user interface and user experience interactions not being perfected, and lacking thoughtfulness and debugging. Karpathy wrote.
Disadvantage 2: Not lightweight enough
This is a widely complained about problem, and the Vision Pro itself weighs between 600 ~ 650 grams. Weight is a disadvantage that cannot be ignored in most people's experience, and even with the necessary dual headbands, it is not forgotten.
"The most striking thing about the hardware after [trying] for a while is that it's heavy. He said that while the double ring strap keeps it stable, it doesn't really reduce the overall weight of the headset when it's put on.
Every time the reporter also feedback, after wearing it for a long time, it feels like the head is pressed, and after wearing it for 30 minutes and taking off the headset, there are also red indentations on the forehead.
Disadvantage 3: Digital characters are not natural enough
Although some people think that the effect of the digital avatar is very good, many foreign media reviews have reported that the digital avatar of the Vision Pro is not natural enough, and there will even be some "uncanny valley effect".
The Verge review notes that there is still a long way to go in this technology. "In Musk's words, the digital personas are really impressive, but they're also very bad. The review reads.
Disadvantage 4: Expensive
The Vision Pro starts at a whopping $3,499, which is much higher than Meta's popular Meta Quest 2 virtual reality headset. According to reports, the displays are the main reason why the Vision Pro is so expensive, they are the core of the Vision Pro experience, and the reason why the entire device works properly. The two displays worn by the headset represent a giant leap forward in display technology, both are microOLEDs, with 23 million pixels and a size of only 7.5 microns, about the size of red blood cells.
The response from the capital market was lukewarm
On the day of the Vision Pro's sale, Apple's stock price failed to rise as expected, falling 0.54%. From the 2nd to the 8th, Apple's stock price rose by only 1.36%. The market has given relatively muted feedback, which is in stark contrast to the hot evaluation craze on the Internet.
According to King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management, he is not so impressed with the Vision Pro, "If you look at the previously announced products – AirPods or iWatch, these products are clearly innovations aimed at the masses and these devices have allowed Apple to grow profitably and soar in revenue. But for a $3,500 device, even if it's outstanding, I'm not sure if it's an innovation for the masses and more likely a novelty toy for the 'privileged.'" ”
Cost is a big factor in the Vision Pro's disapproval. According to foreign media, there are many companies with headset products, as Apple's competitor, the popular Meta Quest 2 is priced at only $500, and the recent ThinkReality VRX released by Lenovo starts at $1299. The high price of the Vision Pro has the potential to be difficult to translate into a significant revenue driver.
On the other hand, there is an argument that the limitations of the Vision Pro itself may imply that it cannot really take the market by storm. According to The Verge, the Apple Vision Pro is the best consumer headset ever, and that's exactly the problem.
Although the headset is not a new concept, Apple is the first company to target the headset as a spatial computer, and the company wants to bring spatial computing to the forefront of the market with the Vision Pro. The company's vision is to make the Vision Pro a complete device that can go toe-to-toe with the Mac and iPad in Apple's device ecosystem.
To accomplish this goal, Apple has had to make some trade-offs. For example, to integrate all this technology into a headset, the weight of the product is so heavy that Apple has to use an external battery. The battery can last for two and a half hours. And once the battery is disconnected, the power supply is completely cut off. According to the reporter's measurement, the battery module is only 2~3 hours in normal use when fully charged.
For Apple itself, the company faces the problem of weak growth. For the full year of fiscal 2023, the company's total net sales were $383.285 billion, down 3% year-on-year, and net profit was $96.995 billion, down 3% year-on-year. The company posted its fourth consecutive quarter of revenue decline, the longest decline since 2001.
On February 2, Apple announced its financial report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, with net revenue of $119.575 billion, an increase of 2% year-on-year, and net profit of $33.916 billion, an increase of 13% over the same period. Despite year-over-year growth in net and net income, revenue in Greater China decreased 13% year-over-year. Analysts worry that Apple is losing market share in China, the country's most critical growth region, in the face of stiff competition from Chinese electronics.
At the beginning of this year, due to a patent infringement lawsuit, the Apple Watch in the United States lost the ability to monitor blood oxygen, and the product sales are expected to perform poorly, which is even worse for Apple.
Vision Pro, a game changer?
In such a situation, whether Vision Pro can become a "game changer" and whether it can bring huge profits to Apple has become the focus of discussion in the industry. Although the response from the capital market has been muted, and the industry is full of voices that "Vision Pro may not really be able to take the market by storm", at the same time, there are many people who are optimistic that Vision Pro will become a game changer in the industry.
Dan Ives told Everyday that Vision Pro represents a new beginning, with 2.2 billion active iOS devices (users) worldwide, and Apple's ecosystem will provide a huge market for it.
"Our industry research suggests that the next version of the Vision Pro 2 will be in the sub-$2,000 range, with 2-3 models likely to be released. In the coming years, the Vision Pro will resemble the form factor of sunglasses and provide users with a wider range of coverage and features. "Given its aggressive pre-orders, Apple is expected to sell 600,000 units in 2024 and more than 1 million Vision Pro units by fiscal 2025." ”
At the same time, he believes that in the future, Apple will be committed to integrating generative AI into the headset, which will mark the beginning of a new growth area for Apple's golden user base.
"This is Apple's first foray into AI, and we expect Apple to first discuss building an independent AI app store at WWDC this summer. The ultimate goal of the Vision Pro is to work alongside iPhones and other Apple devices in the coming years, and many AI use cases will explode in areas such as health, fitness, sports, and more. He said.
Bank of America estimates that Vision Pro can add 68~89 cents to Apple's earnings per share over the next 5 years. Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple's headphone business will "conservatively" increase to $4 billion a year in four years.
In addition, many venture capitalists believe that Vision Pro will bring great opportunities in the enterprise sector. Morgan Stanley said it was "ripe for adoption," especially in terms of virtual simulation, digital showrooms, remote training, and virtual marketing.
Brad Harrison, founder of early-stage venture capital firm Scout Ventures, believes that Apple's ecosystem is a guarantee that businesses will adopt the Vision Pro and that the device is truly integrated into the workplace. Apple understands enterprise applications very well, and this month the company has incorporated Vision Pro into Apple's device management process, enabling IT teams to manage the device in the same way that it handles iPhones, iPads, watches, and Macs.
According to Harrison, "We've reached an inflection point where the availability of hardware, ease of use, integration with existing platforms, and demand will lead to growth in a truly AR-based business." ”
OpenAI正自研两款Agent软件
Image source: Photo by reporter Liu Xuemei
According to a report by foreign media The Information on February 7 local time, OpenAI is developing two revolutionary Agent software. One of them is capable of effectively taking over the customer's device to automate complex tasks. For example, transferring data from a document into a spreadsheet for analysis, or auto-filling an expense report and entering it into accounting software, or creating an itinerary or booking a flight ticket based on a certain budget.
According to a person familiar with the matter, agents are able to automate clicks, cursor movements, text input, and more, just like humans operate software.
The CEO of OpenAI has frequently mentioned his vision - ChatGPT will become a "super-intelligent personal assistant" at work, paving the way for the all-powerful AGI (Artificial General Intelligence).
However, OpenAI also has to contend with privacy concerns about computer takeovers and automated operations. According to the report, according to OpenAI's plan, the agent that takes over the user's computer needs to be licensed to work.
The U.S. commercial real estate crisis has spilled over into Europe
The second German bank announced an increase in loss provisions
According to a report by Bloomberg on February 7 local time, as the value of construction assets has shrunk due to rising global interest rates, the loans owed by U.S. real estate owners and developers have begun to deteriorate, and more and more lenders are increasing provisions for the debt they provide. In addition to the United States itself, the crisis is gradually affecting Europe.
German real estate-focused bank Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBB) said in a statement on Wednesday that it had increased provisions for loan losses in the fourth quarter of 2023, bringing the total for the full year to 215 million euros ($231.7 million) in response to weakness in the U.S. housing market.
The bank pointed out that despite the increase in provisions, its financial strength remains strong and the bank remains profitable. However, PBB described the commercial real estate risk as the worst real estate crisis since the financial crisis.
This is the second German bank to issue a warning in two weeks. Last week, Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest bank, announced that it had increased provisions by 123 million euros in the fourth quarter of last year to absorb possible losses from commercial real estate in the United States. This is equivalent to four times the amount reserved for the same quarter of the previous year.
The "change" of the throne of technology: Microsoft first, Nvidia is approaching Google
Image source: Photo by reporter Zheng Yuhang
Nvidia's market capitalization is on the verge of surpassing Amazon's for the first time in two decades.
As of the close of trading on February 8, Nvidia's market capitalization reached $1.72 trillion, approaching Amazon's market capitalization of $1.76 trillion and not far from Google's market capitalization of $1.83 trillion.
Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has pushed Nvidia's stock price soaring since last year, benefiting from the good news that Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and other major banks have raised their price targets, and Nvidia's stock price reached a record $700 this week.
In 2023, Nvidia's stock price has more than doubled from the beginning of the year, making it the fifth most valuable company in the U.S. stock market. The last time Nvidia surpassed Amazon in market capitalization was in 2002, when both companies were worth less than $6 billion.
Notably, Microsoft also surpassed Apple last month to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company. As of the close of trading on February 8, Microsoft's market capitalization was $3.08 trillion and Apple's market capitalization was $2.91 trillion.
Foreign media broke the news that Apple is developing two foldable iPhones
Image source: Photo by reporter Zhang Jian
On February 7, local time, according to foreign media The Information, citing Apple insiders, the company is currently developing at least two prototypes of horizontal flip foldable iPhones. If it is finally introduced to the market, this innovative design will undoubtedly be one of the most disruptive hardware changes in the history of the iPhone.
Since the launch of the Galaxy Fold by Samsung Electronics in 2019, it has gradually emerged in the market. Motorola, Google, and many other Chinese brands have followed suit and launched their own foldable phone products. However, due to the high manufacturing cost and fragility of these phones, their popularity in the market is still limited.
According to people familiar with the matter, the foldable iPhone is still in the early stages of development and is not included in Apple's mass production plan in the next two or three years.
According to the report, Apple has recently started talks with at least one Asian supplier to purchase two foldable iPhone-related parts of different sizes. However, whether these products can be successfully launched still depends on Apple's strict control of their performance and quality. If they fail to meet Apple's high standards, these products could be canceled.
Up more than 47%!Wework lost money, and Son earned it back from Arm in one day
On Wednesday, chip design company Arm announced that in the third fiscal quarter ended December last year, Arm sales were $824 million, higher than the expected $761.6 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.29, higher than the expected $0.25.
Shares rose more than 47% on Thursday to a record high on positive earnings data. As the share price rose, the value of SoftBank, Arm's major shareholder, increased by more than $16 billion. That allowed Mr. Son's SoftBank to make more money on the Arm deal than it lost on the bankrupt WeWork.
SoftBank bought Arm for $32 billion in 2016 and still holds about 930 million shares, or about 90% of Arm's outstanding shares.
In September last year, SoftBank sent Arm to the market. Arm raised $4.9 billion in the IPO, making it the largest initial public offering on a U.S. exchange in 2023.