Everyone loves to listen to nice words, but if good words are contrary to the facts, then I would rather offend people than tell the truth that is unpleasant; if there are bad words, there will always be people who are uncomfortable listening to them and want to scold the street, but if they don't understand, they won't understand.
To do investment knowledge sharing, I must adhere to objective rationality, looking for the truth and logic of things, if it is just to cater to the emotions of readers and friends, output emotional content, and find empathy to obtain traffic, I can't do it.
Recently, the market has been violently dying, some are calling for a bailout, some are taking advantage of public sentiment to kidnap and supervise, and some are taking the opportunity to spread rumors and rumors about eating human blood steamed buns, and they are talking about their understanding and feelings about some things.
1. Is short-selling securities lending the culprit of smashing the market, and should it be banned?
The market is not good, and everyone likes to find the reason, who is "smashing" the market.
Last year, I blamed the high-frequency quantification, and the tickets for retail investors and floating capital to pull the price limit were suddenly smashed open, thinking that the high-frequency quantification was playing tricks, and under the impetus of public opinion, the high-frequency quantification was restricted, and the market was still not good.
On the first day of the listing of Jindi shares, the company's executives lent out the strategic placement shares through the refinancing business for institutions to short, resulting in retail investors participating in the speculation to lose money, and under the impetus of public opinion, the rules for the lending of strategic placement shares were optimized, but the market was still not good.
After that, ZJH introduced a series of governance measures, clearly restricting the standards for directors, supervisors and senior executives to reduce their holdings, formulating dividend rules, and slowing down the approval of IPOs and private placements, but the market is still not good.
Driven by public opinion, on the 28th of last month, the regulator completely suspended the lending of restricted shares, and limited the efficiency of securities lending, and the next Monday opened, and small-cap stocks collapsed.
A few days ago, WuXi AppTec collapsed in the United States, and some people found that some people borrowed a large number of securities to short WuXi AppTec, and the source of securities was suspected to come from index funds.
Many big Vs took the opportunity to consume the sentiment of retail investors, "buy or not play, buy or not play, really buy or not play", which made many people think for a while that the market is falling, that is, you are refinancing and turning it off!
I say that moderate securities lending is not terrible, it is not a flood beast, it is a good medicine, and the most terrible thing is "ignorance".
Short selling, for this market, is a negative feedback mechanism, the more negative feedback, the more stable the market, and the less volatile, the greater the volatility. If we restrict securities lending and lending, just like in this current society, ignore the objective problems and sing the theory of economic clarity, is it useful?
Why does A-share history always come and go, and why the valuation of individual stocks is always high, that is, the volatility caused by too little negative feedback is too large, 100 times the soy sauce, 300 times the tooth grass, if there is a short-selling mechanism, do institutions dare to hype like this?
However, this kind of negative feedback should also be appropriate and cannot block the normal operation, for example, it is not right for major shareholders to reduce their restricted shares in disguise through securities lending.
Therefore, the core reason for the long kneel of the market is not to short the stock market, but the fundamentals and liquidity problems, good stocks are not afraid of shorting at all, and the stock price will naturally be pulled down, such as X round, X Ming equipment, right, stay away from the speculation of junk stocks, and pay more attention to fundamental analysis is the right solution.
2. Why have small-cap stocks accelerated their decline since last week?
There are three points.
First, the market continued to fall, and there were problems with sentiment and financing;
Second, a lot of strict governance measures for listed companies have been introduced recently, and the impact of these measures on the market is short and long, why?
Third, this has to be said to be the butterfly effect caused by the "New Rules on Securities Lending and Lending".
On the 28th of last month, the meeting issued new rules for securities lending, completely prohibiting the lending of restricted shares and limiting the efficiency of securities lending (T+0 to T+1), which was previously interpreted that this will lead to a significant reduction in the source of securities in the market, and the long-short stock and long-short high-frequency T+0 strategy will not work, which will have a huge impact on the market, especially small-cap stocks with insufficient liquidity.
For example, there are a lot of funds in the market, they are doing stock long and short strategies, and what everyone dug out last year is the small-cap factor, because of the high volatility and good growth, you can hold the small-cap stocks with your left hand and strive to outperform the index, and the right hand is short the new energy and other underperforming indexes with deteriorating fundamentals, seeking bilateral gains. Now, it is forbidden to lend restricted shares, the source of securities is insufficient, and these funds cannot be financed, so he does not dare to be naked, so he can only sell long stocks.
For example, the stock long-short high-frequency T+0 strategy, they are still left-handed long and small-handed, but they are very dependent on intraday real-time bonds, which limits the efficiency of securities lending and lending, which will lead to the strategy not going on, and directly sell the long stocks in their hands.
For example, a few days ago, the snowball accelerated into the snowball, and the snowball knocked in is not to sell stocks directly, but to reduce futures positions, which at least leads to a linear increase in the (passive) short-selling force, and the supervision restricts a strategy called "DMA" The stock index futures single sell, this strategy is a long stock on the left hand and a short futures index on the right hand, and the restricted futures index is sold, and the risk cannot be hedged, and the stock in the hand can only be sold.
All kinds of reasons are superimposed, like a nuclear bomb, which directly collapses the liquidity of small and medium-sized caps.
So, a lot of times, don't think that what you think is right, just wave the flag there, and if the regulator doesn't respond, you will think that inaction, and if you respond, it is easy to cause new trouble.
Participate in public opinion, it is best to just point out the problem, rather than directly give the solution, ten users may have only one common problem, but ten product managers have ten solutions, which solution is the best, that is not our business, we are only responsible for learning as soon as possible.
Wipe, I just wrote two questions, it's 1700 words, and there are a few more questions that we talk about a lot, so let's talk about it tomorrow~ Summarize the views of today's article:
1. Shorting securities borrowing and lending, not a flood beast, bloggers who take capital close-ups of securities borrowing and lending, are either stupid or bad, since they are afraid of others shorting, then simply close the account, you can sell stocks and make stocks fall, and the company can fall and fall without performance.
2. The accelerated decline of small-cap stocks is caused by multiple factors, and the new regulations on securities lending and borrowing have made the long-short strategy of hundreds of billions of stocks suddenly invalid and forced to sell their positions. The killing of small-cap stocks is not over yet, that is, it is difficult for the country to inject liquidity now, and we will talk about it another day.