Powell's speech and data set expectations for interest rate cuts, U.S. stocks and bonds doubled, Nvidia hit a new high, and Tesla once fell nearly 7%

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said over the weekend that the Fed will cut interest rates cautiously this year and may wait until after March to cut rates, reiterating that the Fed wants to see more economic data to ensure that inflation falls to its target of 2%, saying that the danger of cutting rates prematurely is that the task of reducing inflation is not yet complete. Since then, Nick Timiraos, a reporter known as the "New Fed News Agency", has published an article saying that when to cut interest rates has become the current focus of the Fed, Powell emphasized two points: 1. He will not wait for inflation to reach 2% before cutting interest rates, and 2. He hopes to be more confident that inflation will fall to 2%.

Powell once again poured cold water on market expectations for a rate cut in March. Following the unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls growth released on Friday, the data released at the beginning of the session showed that the economy was hotter than expected: the ISM non-manufacturing index in the United States rebounded to a four-month high in January, and the new orders and price indices hit nearly one-year highs.

After Powell's speech and the release of economic data, swap contract pricing showed that investors' expectations for the Fed's rate cut in March fell to almost zero intraday, and the probability of a rate cut in May also continued to decrease. U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply again, climbing at least 10 basis points intraday for two consecutive trading days, and the yield on interest-rate sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to a one-month high. The three major U.S. stock indexes that have risen for several days have collectively retreated. The U.S. dollar index strengthened further amid tape rate cut expectations, updating its highest level since mid-November last year.

The market's probability of a rate cut in March fell to less than 15% on Monday, and the probability of a rate cut in May fell to about 60%.

Among commodities, under the pressure of a stronger dollar, base metals such as copper and precious metals such as gold fell together. The international crude oil that has been falling for several days turned up intraday, boosted by tensions in the Middle East and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has exacerbated supply concerns, has risen more than 1% intraday, out of the trough in three weeks. According to Xinhua News Agency, Ukrainian media said that last weekend, the primary oil refining facilities of the Volgograd refinery, one of Russia's largest oil refineries, were attacked by two drones, and the attack will have a serious impact on the refinery's capacity.

The three major U.S. stock indexes stopped two consecutive yang, Tesla performed the worst among the seven major technology stocks, chip stocks continued to rise against the market, and Nvidia hit a record high for three consecutive days

The three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 430 points in early trading and fell more than 1.1% in the day. The S&P 500 fell more than 0.8% in early trade. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1% in early trading and has since pared at least half of its losses.

In the end, all three major indexes closed lower after two consecutive days of gains. The Dow closed down 274.30 points, or 0.71%, at 38,380.12, falling to a record closing high for two consecutive days. The S&P, which refreshed its all-time closing high on Friday, closed down 0.32% at 4,942.81. The Nasdaq, which closed last Friday at its highest close since Jan. 3, 2022, closed down 0.2% at 15,597.68.

The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, fell more than 2% in early trading and closed down 1.3%, closing low for two consecutive days since January 18. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell nearly 1% in early trading to close down 0.17%, falling to a record closing high set on Friday, while the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 index, rose nearly 0.5% at the beginning of the session before turning lower in early trading, falling more than 0.5% at a new daily low and closing up 0.51%, refreshing the all-time closing high set last Friday.

Major U.S. stock indexes fell on Monday, narrowing their losses in midday trading after refreshing their daily lows in early trading

Among the Dow index constituents, McDonald's (MCD), which reported lower-than-expected revenue in the fourth quarter and reflected the performance of the Middle East conflict, fell 4.6% intraday and closed down 3.7%, the biggest decline since May 2022, after finding that some of the undelivered 737 Max aircraft had new quality problems and could delay the delivery of about 50 aircraft as a result, Boeing (BA) fell 3.5% in early trading and closed down 1.3%, while Caterpillar (CAT), which had a higher-than-expected fourth-quarter profit, rose more than 6% at the beginning of the session and closed up 2% , a record closing high.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only IT and healthcare, where chip stocks are located, closed higher on Monday, with the former rising nearly 0.6% and the latter rising 0.3%. Among the nine sectors that closed lower, materials fell more than 2.5% to lead the decline, followed by utilities and real estate both down 2%, and Tesla's consumer discretionary fell 1.3%.

Leading tech stocks were mixed. Among the seven major technology stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla, Tesla performed the worst. Tesla fell nearly 6.9% in early trading and closed down nearly 3.7% after Piper Sandler's price target was sharply lowered by 23.7% to $225 and the media said that German software giant SAP removed it from its own automotive supply chain, falling for two consecutive days to close at its lowest level since May 2023.

Among the six major technology stocks of FAANMG, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, which rose 20% after the announcement of its earnings report last Friday, closed down 3.3%, falling to a record closing high set by two consecutive days of gains; Amazon, which closed up nearly 8% after Friday's earnings report, hit a three-year high, fell more than 1% in early trading and closed down nearly 0.9%; Microsoft, which rose for two consecutive days and reached a record high on Friday, closed down nearly 1.4%; Netflix, which rose nearly 2% at the beginning of the session, turned down in early trading and closed down nearly 0.5%; and last Friday, when the Vision Pro was sold in the United States, After CEO Cook and other executives expected the mixed reality headset to bring significant opportunities to the business world, Apple rose more than 1% in early trading and closed up nearly 1%, and Google's parent company Alphabet also closed up nearly 1%, rising for three consecutive days, continuing to break away from the low closing level since January 8, which fell more than 7% after the earnings report was announced last Wednesday.

Chip stocks continued to rise against the market as a whole, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX closing up nearly 1.2% and 1.4% respectively, rising for three consecutive days to refresh the closing high since January 25. Among individual stocks, Goldman Sachs raised its target price to $800, nearly 21% higher than last Friday's close, and was optimistic about its quarterly results to be released this month, Nvidia rose slightly more than 5% in early trading, closing up about 4.8%, hitting a record closing record high for three consecutive trading days, Onsemi, whose fourth-quarter revenue and earnings were higher than expected, rose 9.5%, Qualcomm rose more than 1%, Intel turned slightly higher after turning lower in early trading, closing up 0.4%, and NXP, which closed up 2.8%, reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue higher than expected after hours, and rose nearly 7% after hours AMD, which rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session, turned lower in early trading and closed down nearly 2%.

After Goldman Sachs raised its target and expected to rise by more than 20%, Nvidia's stock price rose to a significantly overbought level with an RSI of 85

AI concept stocks were mixed. By the close, C3.ai (AI) and BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 3%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell more than 4%, Adobe (ADBE) fell nearly 0.7%, and Supermicro Computer (SMCI) rose more than 14%, refreshing the all-time high of closing for four consecutive days as of last Thursday; For the first time, it achieved annual profits, saying that the demand for AI was strong, and the stock price rose after hours, rising more than 10% after hours.

Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rebounded. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which fell more than 0.9% at the start of the session, edged higher in early trading to close up 0.2%, rebounding after falling back to its lowest closing since January 22 on Friday. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed up more than 1% and 0.2%, respectively. Among the individual stocks, at the close, Alibaba rose nearly 4%, JD.com rose nearly 3%, Tencent rose more than 2%, NetEase and Station B rose more than 1%, Baidu rose 0.8%, while Xiaopeng Motors fell nearly 4%, Weilai fell about 3%, Pinduoduo fell nearly 3%, New Oriental fell more than 2%, and Li Auto fell more than 1%.

The bank stock index, which stopped falling sharply for two consecutive days on Friday, returned to the decline. The overall banking sector benchmark KBW Bank Index (BKX) closed down nearly 1.3%, updating its lowest closing since January 18 last Thursday, the regional banking index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed down nearly 1.9%, falling back to its lowest level since November 30, 2023, and the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) closed down nearly 1.7%, updating its closing low since December 6.

Regional bank ETFs returned to losses after rebounding on Friday

Among regional banks, New York Community Bank (NYCB), which rebounded more than 5% on Friday but fell 42% for the week, closed down 10.6%, Zions Bancorporation (ZION), which closed up 1% on Friday, closed down nearly 2%, and Alliances Bank of the West (WAL), which closed up 1.8% on Friday, also fell nearly 2%.

Among the more volatile stocks, beauty giant Estée Lauder (EL) rose 19% at the start of the session, its biggest intraday gain since November 2011, after announcing higher-than-expected fiscal quarter revenue and earnings, announcing a broader restructuring plan that includes layoffs of up to 3,000 people, and expected the restructuring to boost the company's operating profit by $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion After Bravo's $1.1 billion cash acquisition, enterprise software company Everbridge (EVBG) rose nearly 20% intraday to close up 18.4%, and after Novo Holdings, the parent company of Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, which produces the weight loss drug Wegovy, announced a $11.5 billion cash acquisition, Wegovy's important outsourced processing company, Catalent (CTLT), a major outsourcing processor and biopharmaceutical company, rose more than 10% in early trading to close up 9.7%; Air Products and Chemicals (APD), a supplier of industrial gases and chemicals whose revenue and earnings fell short of expectations in the fiscal first quarter, closed down nearly 15.6%, and cybersecurity firm Zscaler (ZS), which announced the resignation of its chief operating officer on Friday, fell 6% intraday to close down 4.9%.

Expectations of a central bank interest rate cut have also hit European stocks. The pan-European stock index turned lower intraday on Monday. The Euro Stoxx 600 index rose nearly 0.4% at midday before turning lower and finally closing down less than 0.1%, updating its closing low since January 25. Stock indexes in major European countries mostly fell, with German, French and Spanish stocks that rebounded last Friday retreating, British stocks falling for four consecutive days, and Italian stocks rising for two consecutive sessions.

Among the sectors, retail closed down about 2%, the underlying resources of mining stocks hit by the decline in metals fell more than 1.6%, and the medical sector closed up more than 1% against the market, thanks to the announcement of the acquisition of Catalent by the parent company, Denmark-listed Novo Nordisk closed up 3.6%, and the stock price closed at a record high. Among other stocks, Spain's largest bank Santander closed down 5% after the media said that Iran used bank accounts to secretly transfer funds to evade sanctions, dragging the Spanish stock index down more than 1%, the worst performance among countries, while the Italian bank UniCredit surged 8.1% to a new high in more than eight years after the fourth-quarter results were better than expected and said it would improve shareholder returns, supporting the Italian stock index to continue to rise.

U.S. Treasury yields rose more than 10 basis points for two consecutive days, and the two-year yield hit a one-month high

European government bond prices continued to fall, with yields following US Treasuries further upwards. By the end of the bond market, the UK 10-year benchmark government bond yield closed at 4.00%, up about 9 basis points in the day, the US non-farm payrolls report has risen about 26 basis points in the last two trading days, and rose to 4.04% on Monday, refreshing the high since January 25, the 2-year British bond yield closed at 4.48%, up about 9 basis points in the day and about 28 basis points in the last two days, and the benchmark 10-year German bund yield closed at 2.31%, up about 7 basis points in the day and rose above 2.33% in the session , refreshing the high since January 25, rising about 17 basis points in the last two days in terms of closing, and the yield on 2-year German bonds closed at 2.60%, up about 5 basis points in the day, and up about 16 basis points in the last two days.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond broke through 4.05% at the beginning of the Asian market to refresh the daily low, and then continued to rise, European stocks rose above 4.10% intraday, and U.S. stocks rose above 4.17% in early trading, rising more than 15 basis points in the day, rising more than 10 basis points for two consecutive trading days, refreshing the high since January 25, and continuing to stay away from the low since December 27, which broke 3.82% last Thursday, and about 4.16% at the end of the bond market, up about 14 basis points in the day.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.17% intraday, hitting a new high in more than a week

The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, broke through 4.40% intraday in the Asian market to refresh the daily low, and the U.S. stock market was close to 4.48% intraday, refreshing the high since January 5, rising more than 11 basis points in the day, and after last Friday, it also rose at least more than 10 basis points intraday, to about 4.47% at the end of the bond market, up about 11 basis points in the day, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose for two consecutive days.

Treasury yields of all maturities generally rose more than 10 basis points on Monday

The U.S. dollar index hit a new high in nearly three months, the euro hit a new low in nearly three months, and the yen hit a new low in two months

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies including the U.S. dollar against the euro, maintained its rally throughout Monday, falling below 104.00 in the short term when the Asian market refreshed its daily low, and continued to rise in the European and American trading sessions, with U.S. stocks rising above 104.60 in early trading, refreshing the high since November 14, 2023, and rising nearly 0.7% during the day.

By the close of trading on Monday, the dollar index was above 104.40, up nearly 0.5% on the day, and the Bloomberg dollar spot index, which tracks the greenback against 10 other currencies, rose about 0.4%, the highest level since November 17 last year, and the dollar index rose for two consecutive sessions.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index tested its 100-day moving average, hitting a new three-month high

Non-U.S. currencies continued to fall, with the euro near 1.0720 in early U.S. trading, the lowest since November 14, down nearly 0.6% in the day, the yen fell further after turning lower on Friday, the dollar and the yen approached 148.90 in early U.S. trading, a two-month high, up more than 0.3% in the day, and the pound fell below 1.2520 against the dollar in early U.S. trading, the lowest since December 23, down nearly 0.9% in the day.

The offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar in the Asian market in the morning of the Asian market had refreshed the daily high to 7.2085, European stocks turned down before the market to maintain a downward trend, the US stock market fell to 7.2245 in early trading, since January 18 for the first time intraday loss of 7.22, down 160 points from the daily high, Beijing time on February 6 at 5:59, the offshore yuan against the US dollar reported 7.2201 yuan, down 54 points from the end of New York last Friday, down four consecutive trading days.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $42,300 in early Asian trading to refresh the daily low, and then rebounded, European stocks regained $43,000 before the market, and U.S. stocks rose above $43,500 before the market, refreshing the high since Wednesday, January 31, rising more than $1,000 from the daily low, up more than 3%, and then falling, the U.S. stock market returned below $43,000 in early trading, and the U.S. stock market hovered at $42,400 at the close, down more than 1% in the last 24 hours. There are comments that the currency price was affected by the report that cryptocurrency lending platform Genesis Trading applied to liquidate more than $1.6 billion in cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin rose below $43,000 intraday before turning lower and falling back below $43,000

Crude oil stopped falling three times in a row and walked out of a three-week low and rose more than 1% intraday

International crude oil futures turned higher on Monday. When U.S. stocks refreshed their daily lows in early trading, U.S. WTI crude oil was close to $71.40, down 1.2% during the day, Brent crude oil was near $76.60, down more than 0.9% during the day, and then rebounded, and turned up near midday to maintain the rally, and when the day high was refreshed at midday, U.S. oil was close to $73.30, up nearly 1.4% during the day, and Brent oil rose above $78.30, up about 1.3% during the day.

Eventually, crude oil rebounded after three consecutive days of losses. WTI crude oil futures for March delivery closed up $0.50, or 0.69%, at $72.78 a barrel, while Brent crude futures for April delivery closed up $0.66, or 0.85%, at $77.99 a barrel, as well as U.S. oil oil off Friday's lows since January 10 and January 11, respectively.

U.S. WTI crude oil rose above $73 in the short term

U.S. gasoline and natural gas futures rose together. NYMEX March gasoline futures closed up 2.87% at $2.2092/gal, rebounding after falling back to their lowest since Jan. 17 on Friday, while NYMEX March natural gas futures closed up 0.14% at $2.082/MMBtu, continuing to bid farewell to last Thursday's closing low since April 2023.

London tin fell nearly 3%, London copper and lun zinc fell for four consecutive years, and gold fell to a one-week low for two consecutive years

London base metals futures fell across the board on Monday, mostly down at least more than 1%. Lunxi, which led the decline, fell nearly 2.8%, a new low since mid-January, and London Aluminum fell for three consecutive trading days, and London Aluminum fell to a two-week low. London copper, London zinc, London lead fell for four consecutive days, London copper closed below $8,400 for the first time in two weeks, London lead also hit a two-week low, London zinc fell to a nearly two-month low since early December. London nickel, which rebounded slightly on Friday, fell back to a two-week low.

Gold futures in New York maintained their downward trend after turning lower in early Asian trading on Monday, with U.S. stocks hitting a daily low of $2,030.8 in pre-market trading, down 1.1% on the day. In the end, the futures fell for two consecutive trading days.

COMEX gold futures for April delivery closed down as much as 0.53% at $2,042.9 an ounce, not only away from the nearly three-week closing high set by Thursday's rally above $2,070, but also refreshing the lowest since last Monday, January 29.

Spot gold fell below $2,015 before the U.S. stock market, the lowest level since January 25, down 1.2% during the day, and the U.S. stock market hovered at $2,025, down about 0.7% during the day.

Spot gold fell to a more than one-week low intraday, but found support at $2020