The national team bailed out the city, this time is different!

1

On February 5th, although the big A was still surging in the undercurrent, the long and short games were like a game.

However, there have been two rare signals in the market, which may suggest that the national team has a new route to save the market.

The first signal is that the regulator has made a rare voice on the risk of stock pledges during the midday break.

The proportion of the market value of stock pledges in the total market value of the two cities has decreased from 10.51% at the peak in 2018 to 3.38%, the balance of pledged financing has decreased from 2.69 trillion yuan to 1.59 trillion yuan, and the number of the largest shareholders of listed companies with a pledge ratio of more than 80% has decreased from 702 to 227.

More importantly, the regulator said that it would guide brokerages and others to increase the elasticity of the liquidation line and promote the smooth operation of the market.

The second signal is that the stock market has a rare explosion of ETFs for small and medium-sized enterprises.

After the stock market opened in the afternoon, the trading volume of the related CSI 500 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF and ChiNext ETF all increased significantly;

Among them, the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF exceeded 16 billion, almost more than 10 times the daily trading volume.

The national team took advantage of ETFs to launch a rare bailout in the field of non-state-controlled holdings.

These two signals are very important and informative!

This may indicate that the focus of the national team's future bailout will gradually shift from large-cap stocks to small- and medium-cap stocks, and in the future, more bailout ammunition will be invested in private enterprises with stronger shareholder feelings.

Data source: The Paper

Then, I will explain the change in the thinking of the national team to save the market from two perspectives, namely the central state-owned enterprises represented by large-cap stocks, and the private enterprises represented by small- and medium-cap stocks.

First of all, the risk of big A is not in the strong central state-owned enterprises.

Bank of China, PetroChina, China Mobile and other enterprises are state-owned assets, and their bargaining chips are firmly in our own hands.

Whether it is foreign capital or other malicious short-selling forces, there is no way to short without chips.

Although central state-owned enterprises are the subject of margin financing and securities lending, major shareholders will never lend their shares to securities lending institutions, because central state-owned enterprises have no incentive to lend at all.

Although public funds also hold stocks of central state-owned enterprises, they will not easily lend such stocks, after all, this is a bottom-line problem, and no fund manager dares to step on this red line.

Take 10,000 steps back and say, even if there is a source of central state-owned enterprise stocks in the market, which institution dares to rashly short the stocks of central state-owned enterprises for the sake of profit?

So

There are very few forces in the market that dare to lend securities and short the central state-owned enterprises.

There are only bulls in this field, and there are few bears.

The same logic is linearly extrapolated to the staking realm. There is no shortage of financing channels for central state-owned enterprises themselves, such as bank loans and fiscal transfers.

If there is no shortage of money, they will not pledge their own stocks, and without a pledge, there is no risk of being forced to liquidate.

There's many, many more logic。。。。。。

The conclusion is that central state-owned enterprises are precisely the safest assets in the market. In other words, they are too powerful and are the most difficult to short in the market.

However, the national team had to save them.

The reason is that the funds of the national team are the funds of the state, and it is not easy for the national team to rescue the central state-owned enterprises to cause the loss of state-owned assets.

Chart: Bull market, data source: wind

This has created a situation in which the market is both hot and cold, one is the Bank of China, PetroChina, China Mobile large-cap stocks, and heavyweight stocks are rising vigorously, and we can feel the heat of the bull market at a glance. (See image above)

On the other hand, the stock prices of small and medium-sized stocks such as photovoltaics, batteries, chips, and pharmaceuticals and private enterprises continue to fall, and it is also a bear market in which shareholders feel the pain of their skin.

2

Next, let's talk about private enterprises represented by small and medium-sized caps.

In recent years, private enterprises have become an important part of the sustainable development of our economy.

They contribute more than 50% of the country's tax revenue, more than 60% of GDP, about 70% of technological innovation, more than 80% of jobs, and more than 90% of market players.

However, this group accounts for less than half of the market value in the stock market, accounting for only about 40%.

It is this 40% that has become the target of fire in the stock market.

Let's take an example of a snowball product that has attracted a lot of attention in the market recently.

Small and medium-sized enterprises often correspond to the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext in the stock market, which is also the main position of the recent hot snowball products.

According to the previous calculations of the Cinda metalworking team, the "snowball" products linked to the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are below 4800 and 5200 points respectively.

In this range, the average decline of 100 points led to the knock-in of about 10 billion yuan of CSI 500 "snowball" and 13 billion CSI 1000 "snowball" products.

On February 5, the CSI 500 Index closed at about 4,460 points, and the CSI 1,000 Index closed at about 4,293 points, both of which entered the knock-in range.

In other words, the "snowball" products have incurred substantial and concentrated losses, especially the leveraged snowball products have basically been liquidated.

Behind this are not only the high-net-worth holders of snowball products, but also the small and medium-sized shareholders corresponding to snowball products, as well as the small and medium-sized entrepreneurs behind small and medium-cap stocks.

Figure: Pledge ratio, data source: Oriental Wealth

Let's take another case of staking that has attracted a lot of attention.

Because of the limited financing channels, small and medium-sized enterprises will pledge their shares in exchange for capital turnover, which is nothing more than the different degree of pledge ratio.

At present, more than 90% of the pledges in the stock market are concentrated in small and medium-sized private enterprises

(See image above)

, their risks have to be guarded against.

Because

This kind of shock is often concentrated, and it is extremely easy to bring about a flash crash of individual stocks.

Unlike public and private placements, which are planned and rhythmic, pledge liquidation is often a one-click liquidation that is directly pressed to the fall limit.

Popularly known as the "nuclear button".

It is undeniable that those companies with a high pledge ratio tend to have average performance and little cash flow, otherwise they would not pledge a high proportion of shares in exchange for liquidity.

Just like when we usually mortgage our house, it is often when cash is already very tight, and there is no way, which is a next step.

The flash crash of these companies is not terrible in itself, but the contagion of panic behind it is terrible.

In the end, I personally think that the superposition of various reasons has led to the beginning of the scene.

On February 5, the regulator made a rare public statement during the lunch break,

Brokerages and other institutions should increase the flexibility of the liquidation line.

In fact, it is to say that there should be no unnecessary panic in the market, and that is the policy of bailing out small and medium-sized enterprises.

Not just shouting, but real money.

After the opening of the market on the afternoon of February 5, the national team entered the market to rescue the market, and also concentrated its firepower on the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and GEM, which are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises.

The national team's rescue of the market this time has opened up new ideas, saving the small and medium-sized board is to cut off the panic, and saving private enterprises is to transfer thousands of pounds in four or two!

It is worth noting that foreign capital is no longer a net outflow, but has turned into a net purchase. It has been net buying for 5 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative purchase of 10 billion yuan.

As of January 26, 165 foreign-funded institutions have conducted research on A-share listed companies during the year, including Goldman Sachs, Allianz, UBS, Fidelity International and other well-known institutions.

How do foreign investors view A-shares at the moment, and are they buying the bottom? How can we eliminate the difference between internal and external information without being passive everywhere? Is there a good way to understand the trend of foreign investment?

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