Reminder: The market index fluctuates between 2700-2780 points, and it should be the common desire of all parties in the market to remain relatively stable.
【2024/2/4 Sunday】Ah Zheng will look at the market outlook on Sunday
This week, the market hit a new low in more than 5 years, with the index opening low at 2810.61 points, the highest at 2923.90 points, and the lowest at 2666.33 points, closing at 2730.15 points, and the weekly line closed with a long black candle down 6.19%.
Shanghai Composite Index: closed at 2730.15 points, down 180.07 points or 6.19% for the week;
Shenzhen Component Index: closed at 8055.77 points, down 705.06 points, or 8.06%;
GEM index: closed at 1550.37 points, down 132.11 points for the week, or 7.85%.
The trend of the Shanghai Composite Index on February 2
[Next week's analysis] Friday's market has broken 2724 points, the first foot of this low is no longer established, and then pay attention to Friday's low of 2666 points, and the gem focuses on 1512 points to see if it can become the second foot. If there is no "king bomb", it is difficult for the market to reverse, and the main funds before the holiday will generally not launch a big counterattack.
This week, the market saw its biggest weekly decline since October 2018, which can be called a stock market crash, with a decline of 6.19% and 7.65% last time. Due to the sharp decline, the broad market index has returned to its original shape after the rebound in the middle of last week, and has returned to a downward trend on the trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have both fallen to a record, and four of the five trading weeks since 2024 are at record lows.
Technically, the moving average is in a bearish arrangement, all short, medium and long-term moving averages are in a state of counterpressure, the 20-week moving average continues to move downward, the 10-week moving average has become an important pressure on the market, and has played a role in helping to fall, this week is a sharp decline, continuously breaking through the previous low of 2724 points and 2700 points integer mark, a new low of 2666 points in more than 5 years.
Some people say that Friday's long lower shadow may be a bottoming signal, but Ah Zheng believes that it is absolutely impossible! The prerequisite for bottoming out is that banks, oil, and other strong sectors in the early stage complete the decline. The market is still in a downward trend, this long lower shadow is just a brake on the rapid decline of the market, a long lower shadow line can not solve all the selling! The long lower shadow on January 18 is an example, after the long lower shadow, there are still 3 consecutive trading days of downward exploration, the overall decline of more than 4%, there was a low of 2724 points. Therefore, it remains to be seen whether the market can stop falling.
Rough analysis of the market next week
In the next market, we should not only pay attention to the snowball knock in, the short order of the futures index, quantitative trading, fund redemption, refinancing liquidation, but also pay attention to the liquidation of equity pledge, if the market falls by more than 5% again, the liquidation of the pledge will occur, which is a result that must be prevented, some data show that the equity pledge of listed companies is as high as 90%.
【Comprehensive judgment】Next week's market 4 trading days, will be a small shock trend, the overall will give the market a respite, and the probability of a new low is not large, the shock range is roughly between 2700-2780 points. Next, focus on Friday's low of 2666 points, and the GEM focus on 1512 points to see if it can become the second foot. If there is no "king bomb", it is difficult for the market to reverse, and the main funds before the holiday will generally not launch a big counterattack.
Tips: Ah Zheng is piling up words every day, which is also a hard job, and I hope to get your likes and comments to support me.
(Personal opinion, for reference only, operate accordingly, at your own risk)