Aonong Biotech was applied for pre-reorganization by creditors/The performance of listed pig companies in 2023 will be wiped out/The phased high point of pig prices in 2024 may exceed 18 yuan/kg?
The pig industry continues to run at the bottom of the cycle, which makes large-scale breeding enterprises gradually enter the predicament.
Aonong Biotech was applied for pre-reorganization by creditors
On the evening of February 2, Aonong Biotechnology (603363) announced that the company received the "Notice" from the creditor Fujian Dazhou Construction Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Dazhou Group"), because the company failed to repay the due debts on time and obviously lacked solvency, Dazhou Group has submitted materials to the people's court to apply for pre-reorganization of the company.
At the same time, Zhangzhou Aonong Investment Co., Ltd. (formerly known as "Xiamen Aonong Investment Co., Ltd.", hereinafter referred to as "Aonong Investment"), the controlling shareholder of Aonong Biotech, received the "Notice" from the creditor Dazhou Group, because Aonong Investment failed to repay its due debts on time and obviously lacked solvency, Dazhou Group has also submitted materials to the people's court to apply for the reorganization of Aonong Investment.
Aonong Biotech said that as of the disclosure date of this announcement, the company has not received the documents from the court to initiate the pre-reorganization or accept the reorganization application.
There are significant uncertainties as to whether the applicant's application can be accepted by the court, whether the company will enter the pre-reorganization or reorganization procedure in the future, and whether Aonong Investment will enter the reorganization procedure, which may have an impact on the company's shareholding structure.
Aonong Investment holds a total of 266 million shares of Aonong Biotech, accounting for 30.58% of the total share capital of the listed company, of which the number of pledged shares is 260 million shares, accounting for 97.73% of its shares, and the number of frozen shares is 266 million shares, accounting for 100% of its shares.
The announcement said that regardless of whether it enters the pre-reorganization or reorganization procedure, Aonong Biotech will continue to actively do a good job in daily operation and management on the existing basis. Subsequently, if the court receives documents to initiate the pre-reorganization or accept the reorganization application, the company will fulfill the information disclosure obligation in a timely manner. If the court accepts the application for reorganization of the company, the company will cooperate with the court and the administrator to carry out the relevant reorganization work in accordance with the law, and fulfill the debtor's statutory obligations in accordance with the law. If the company successfully implements the reorganization and completes the reorganization plan, it will be conducive to optimizing the company's asset and liability structure and improving the company's continuous operation and profitability. If the reorganization fails, the company will be at risk of being declared bankrupt. If the company is declared bankrupt, according to the relevant regulations, the company's shares will face the risk of being terminated from listing, please pay attention to the investment risk.
猪企2023年业绩全军覆没
Affected by the slow recovery of consumption and the greater supply of live pigs than demand, domestic pig prices will be sluggish in 2023, dragging down the annual performance losses of listed pig enterprises. The first financial reporter combed through the announcement and found that among the 26 listed companies in the pig industry, except for Shuanghui Development and Boen Group, two companies whose main business is not pig breeding, the rest have disclosed their 2023 performance forecasts. Among them, 15 suffered their first loss, 4 continued to lose, 2 pre-reduced, and 3 reversed losses.
Further statistics show that in 2023, there will be a total of 20 listed companies whose main business is pig breeding (including companies with pig breeding as the main business and the proportion of pig raising business in revenue continues to increase), with a total loss of 29.25 billion yuan according to the upper limit of the net profit attributable to the parent company, and a loss of more than 40 billion yuan if calculated according to the net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-profits.
New Hope introduced strategic investment, *ST Zhengbang completed bankruptcy reorganization, and the two companies relied on non-recurring profits and losses to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company, but the pig business still suffered serious losses.
Looking at the performance of leading stocks, Muyuan shares, New Hope, Wen's shares 3 leading stocks slaughtered in the first place, the loss is also more serious, after deducting the net profit attributable to the parent profit of the upper limit of 4.5 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, 6.7 billion yuan respectively, a total loss of 15.7 billion yuan, Wen's shares of the pre-loss amount is the largest pre-loss in the pig sector in 2023, and Muyuan shares recorded the first loss since nine years of listing.
The sluggish pig price and the year-on-year increase in slaughter have formed a situation of "volume increase and price decline", resulting in the aggravation of losses of leading pig enterprises. Wen's pig sales in 2023 will increase by 46.65% year-on-year, and the average sales price of woolly pigs will decrease by 22.26% year-on-year, resulting in a deep loss in the pig business. Muyuan Co., Ltd., a leading company of "self-breeding and self-raising", will sell 63.816 million live pigs in 2023.
Muyuan shares and New Hope have recently received a large number of institutional research. Muyuan Co., Ltd. said that in 2023, the company's complete breeding cost will be about 15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/kg from 2022, but due to the short production time of some plants, the slaughtering meat business in 2023 has not yet achieved profitability. New Hope received 81 shareholders, investors, and analysts on January 31, looking forward to 2024, the company expects capital expenditure to be around 2 billion yuan, and the average fattening cost target in 2024 is 15.5 yuan/kg.
In terms of small-capitalization pig enterprises, the pre-loss amount of Aonong Biotechnology, Tianbang Food, Dabeinong, Longda Food, Tangrenshen and Tiankang Biology exceeded 1 billion yuan. *ST Zhengbang, which has completed bankruptcy reorganization, expects a net profit loss of 5 billion ~ 7 billion yuan attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profits in 2023, of which the net profit loss of the pig business will be 3 billion yuan ~ 4 billion yuan.
In 2024, the pig price may fluctuate around 16.00-18.00 yuan/kg for the whole year
2024 has entered February, looking back on January pig prices out of the "V-shape", the first half of the month pig prices all the way down, the lowest fell to 13.43 yuan / kg, January 20 pig prices continued to rise, as of the end of the month price reported 16.19 yuan / kg. After the Spring Festival, pork consumption will enter the seasonal off-season, and the market is bearish on the overall price of pork in the first quarter, which means that the performance of listed companies will continue to lose at least one quarter.
The trend of pig prices in 2024 is extremely critical, involving the life and death of listed pig companies. For the view on the trend of pig prices in 2024, Muyuan shares said in the institutional survey that the overall price performance in 2024 is expected to be more optimistic than in 2023. On the supply side, the current breeding sows are still at a high level, but the overall trend is downward, and the supply of live pigs in 2024 is expected to be lower than last year. On the demand side, as the economy gradually stabilizes, demand is expected to rise to a certain extent in 2024.
"Pig prices have rebounded in the last two weeks, mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival and the increase in pork sales. We expect that from the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter of 2024, or the lowest pig price of the whole year, the performance of listed companies will also appear at the bottom of the fifth loss in this cycle. An agricultural analyst told reporters, "In the future, with the de-transmission of the production capacity of fertile sows to the production capacity of pigs, the price of live pigs is expected to gradually rise, the cost of breeding is expected to fall, and the average profit of pigs is expected to slowly rise in 2024." ”
My steel network analysis believes that, on the whole, the north is greatly affected by the epidemic (some areas are converted into frozen meat), but the scale of enterprises reserve sufficient superimposed production performance improvement, the epidemic has a limited impact on the overall production capacity, although the market rebounded before the year but the strength is limited; from the group field weaning piglet data, before May the supply is sufficient in the first half of the year or still in the loss, with the decline in production capacity and the emergence of the northern epidemic, the second half of the pig price or return to the cost line above, the annual pig price in 16.00-18.00 yuan / Kilograms fluctuate up and down, and there is no shortage of phased highs or can break through 18.00 yuan/kg.
Piglets: First of all, according to the regional, the northeast is not considered, the southwest Yunnan, Guichuan and central are the more concentrated places in the country, according to the amount of sow loss does affect the piglets in March and May, the piglets in May need to be bred in January, and the sow losses of the company are very large, that is, only the group company has piglets from March to May this year. On the whole, there will still be a surplus of piglets in the south from March to May next year. At present, the piglets are bought from the group farm, and the piglets of 700 yuan will not be bought, and the plan is to buy them from January to March at most, and the back is not very optimistic.
Market: The trend is low and high, the certainty is stronger than that of 23 years, there are several uncertainties at the low point in the first half of the year, and the second breeding support is pushing the rise; the slaughterhouse is uncertain when the inventory will be prepared, and I personally feel that it will rise in April/May; the high point may appear in December. Because the production capacity eliminated in October-November 2023 should be the largest, the more it will be eliminated in the future, the fewer pigs will be, and the price will appear in Q4, that is, there are too many uncertainties in it. There are a lot of retail eliminations, and there are few large-scale enterprises eliminated, and it is not sure that these enterprises will turn fat to mother, and it is not easy to say when frozen products will be shipped in 2024, and there will be a shortage of pigs in the second half of the year, how about the consumption of meat, and whether there is a shortage of meat is not yet certain.
Cost: There has been no significant increase in 23 years, and there is a decline after the epidemic, indicating that the increase this year is not as expected. In fact, it is difficult to say that East China and Hubei have improved efficiency. Farms that don't get sick are now very nervous and strict about production efficiency. Many people are 7.5 yuan/kg, and we raise between 7.3-7.5 yuan/kg by ourselves, self-breeding. If you include the cost of the disease, it must be much higher.
Frozen products: slaughter volume and frozen products: 3.5-36,000 now, similar to last year. After the winter solstice, the decline is obviously 10%-15%, which is also the case in the past, with a normal decline, and a rebound is expected to be in Laba. Frozen products are very slow, February 10 Spring Festival, it is estimated that some can still be produced, but the amount is not large; 10-11 months, including small weight, the elimination of sows into the frozen products more. The inventory of frozen products peaked in July, and now it has dropped by 20%-30%, and the storage capacity rate at the peak is second to that time in October 2019. It is expected that the warehousing of frozen products in 24 years will be more cautious. At present, the amount of by-products is larger, and the by-products are pig's trotters and pig's heads, which are sold well, but others are not easy to sell; the price difference of frozen products in different regions is relatively large.
Pig situation: the current pig sales compared with last year is better, in December recently after the damage to the enthusiasm is relatively high, our orders are to May, the scale of enterprises still have the desire to load pigs, optimistic about next year's market. However, because of the epidemic in Henan, there are many orders, and there are fewer pigs in Henan, and more in southern enterprises.
Recently, the average price of 7 kg weaned piglets in China was 374.76 yuan/head, an increase of 56.19 yuan/head from the end of the month. This week, the price of 7 kg weaned piglets continued to rise, with an increase of 20-90 yuan/head, the mainstream market price was 280-440 yuan/head, and some high prices were close to 500 yuan/head. The supply and demand game of the pig market, the short-term price increase is obvious, the industry sentiment is boosted and the market outlook is expected to improve slightly, and some enterprises have increased the number of supplementary operations, which has led to the improvement of the enthusiasm of the piglet market, and the short-term piglet market is strong, and the price still has room to rise.
The price of 50kg binary sows in the week was 1491.43 yuan / head, a slight increase of 0.93% compared with the end of the month, and the price of binary sows was raised. In the south, with the low price of hairy pigs, the market inquiry intention has increased, and the expectation has improved, and the price has risen. However, the comprehensive assessment of the short-term pig price upside is limited, and it is expected that the price of sows in the next Tuesday may be limited.
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Source: Synthesized from Times Weekly, Securities Times, My Iron and Steel Agricultural Products Network, etc
Editor: Mao Hong
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice