Will China's Year of the Dragon push gold prices to record highs?

China is the largest miner, importer, central bank buyer and household consumer of gold.

Despite the Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy, gold prices still closed higher on Thursday (February 1). Analysts expect a range of factors to push gold prices back up to record highs or even higher in 2024.

Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group, said the Fed's latest statement had a "ripple effect" in the gold market.

Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) fell as much as 1% overnight to $2,046.40 an ounce. The GCJ24 contract rose 0.03% in April before reaching as high as $2,083.20, not far from the record price of $2,093.10, the most active contract reached on December 27 last year, according to FactSet data. The April contract closed at $2,071.10 an ounce on Thursday, up $3.70, or 0.2 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on January 31 denied expectations that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in March.

GoldSeek.com managing director Peter Spina said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is taking a more "patient approach to keeping [interest rates] higher for a long time", dispelling hopes for an early rate cut.

He said the underlying strength of the gold market was driven by central bank purchases.

In a report released on Wednesday, the World Gold Council said central banks had maintained an "alarming pace" in gold purchases, with annual net purchases of 1,037t, almost on par with the 2022 record and just 45t.

Central banks have been "hoarding gold like treasure hunters" and their insatiable appetites have helped boost gold prices despite strong headwinds such as surging bond yields and a "ridiculously strong" dollar, Coos said.

Since mid-December last year, gold futures prices have been stable above the psychologically important $2,000 mark.

Spina said gold prices were "firmly on the launch pad" and expected gold prices to hit new highs in the coming months.

"Looking at the overall sentiment gauge, you can't tell that gold is close to an all-time high," but he said it was a "typical stealth bull move" and futures prices were little changed from last year's close.

Spina said the invisible bull market in gold "is going on quietly and we will be steadily moving into record price ranges as the bull market excitement phase approaches".

He expects that "through a number of factors that trigger the rise in the gold price", investors who are short the gold market will "see their dreams of a significant drop in the gold price fade and ...... in turn" become a short-replenishment ammunition for the bulls".

Coos listed a list of "influencing factors" that could push gold prices to record highs later this year, including the possibility of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, and continued safe-haven demand "as global economic uncertainty never seems to go away."

Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates soon prompted gold to reach record highs at the end of December, but analysts also expect safe-haven demand for gold to rise against the backdrop of the war, especially in the Middle East.

"Geopolitical tensions and conflicts are spreading. The risks are increasing, and this has translated into an increase in the number of BRICS countries increasing more and more gold reserves," Spina said.

In addition, demand for gold in China remains strong and is expected to continue to increase as the Lunar New Year approaches.

Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, said China had been celebrating the Lunar New Year with a surge in demand for gold jewellery and investment. China is the largest miner, importer, central bank buyer and household consumer of gold. According to chinesenewyear.net, the Chinese New Year begins on February 10 and the celebration will last for 16 days.

"China's soaring gold demand shows no signs of slowing down," Ashe said in an emailed commentary this week.

He noted that the price of gold denominated in renminbi has risen 44% since the eve of the coronavirus pandemic, up by a fifth in the last year alone. In addition, in US dollar terms, Chinese household gold demand jumped 24% to a record US$56 billion in 2023.

The Year of the Dragon could see a new record for demand for gold during the Chinese New Year, Ash said. Gold is considered a symbol of good luck and is often purchased as a holiday gift.

When the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were closed on Feb. 9 for the Chinese New Year holiday, Western investors who wanted gold to buy on dips were "likely to get an opportunity to increase their holdings of gold," Ashe said.

Looking ahead, he said it would be difficult to see gold prices fall too much this year.

The gold market has found strong support above $2,000, thanks to "continued demand from China's central bank, spurred by current worrying geopolitical tensions, coupled with a pessimistic financial and economic outlook driving huge household demand," Ashe said.

Text: Myra S. P. Saifeng

Edited by Peng Ren

Copyright Notice:

Original BarronsChina articles may not be reproduced without permission. See the report on February 1, 2024"

Why gold prices are likely to reach a record high in 2024

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(The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of investment and financial advice; the market is risky and investment should be cautious.) ）

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