On the evening of January 26, TCL Zhonghuan disclosed its 2023 performance forecast. According to the performance forecast, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 to be 4.2 billion yuan to 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%-38.4%.
At first glance, it seems like nothing, after all, for the whole year, 2023 will be profitable, but in fact, in the first three quarters, TCL Zhonghuan's net profit attributable to the parent reached 6.188 billion yuan, and in the third quarter alone, it reached 1.652 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, TCL Zhonghuan is expected to lose 1.388 billion yuan to 1.988 billion yuan in the fourth quarter. In other words, its fourth-quarter performance was a huge loss.
For the precipitous decline in performance in the fourth quarter, TCL Zhonghuan explained that with the release of production capacity in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain, the terminal installed capacity and upstream supply are out of balance, and the expansion of production capacity has led to intensified competition and competition, and the price fluctuations of the industrial chain have declined, and profit margins have been further compressed.
In this regard, some people on the page said that the increase in volume and price reduction is the general status quo of the whole photovoltaic industry chain. From 2020 to 2022, silicon wafers, as a relatively scarce link, attracted many manufacturers to layout, which also led to it becoming one of the first overcapacity links. In the fourth quarter of last year, the industry's overcapacity and product prices fell rapidly, and the performance of silicon wafer companies has shrunk as expected.
The quarterly loss of the silicon wafer giant's performance this time is still related to the overcapacity problem of the photovoltaic industry chain. It is worth noting that, according to the data of the Silicon Industry Branch on January 24, wafer prices have recovered recently, with a slight increase week-on-week. The price of the industrial chain may bottom out in stages, and the start of demand after the Spring Festival is expected to drive the rebound of the price of the industrial chain.
Appendix: TCL Zhonghuan-Smart Stock Analysis Report (01/30)
AI scoring
Company Profile
- Listing: On April 20, 2007, the company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange
- Stock abbreviation: TCL Zhonghuan, code: 002129
- Industry: Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing
- Founded in 1958, TCL Zhonghuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. is the world's leading manufacturer of photovoltaic materials, supplier of photovoltaic cell modules, and service provider of smart photovoltaic solutions. The company has always adhered to the green ecological concept of "dedicating blue sky and white clouds to mankind", adhered to innovation-driven development, always led the industrial application of advanced technology and advanced manufacturing methods in the industry, continuously promoted the technological innovation of the photovoltaic industry, and realized the high-quality, sustainable and leapfrog development of the global green energy industry.
Profiles of important people
Chairman: Li Dongsheng
Li Dongsheng graduated from South China University of Technology, majoring in radio technology. Founder, Chairman and CEO of TCL Group, Vice President of China Chamber of International Commerce, President of Guangdong Enterprise Confederation, First Rotating Chairman of China Manufacturing Innovation Alliance, Honorary President of Guangdong General Chamber of Commerce, and Deputy to the 14th National People's Congress.
Vice Chairman: Shen Haoping
Mr. Shen Haoping, male, born in 1962, Chinese nationality, bachelor degree, senior engineer, expert enjoying special allowance of the State Council. He is currently the vice chairman and general manager of TCL Zhonghuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and the executive director and senior vice president of TCL Technology Group Co., Ltd. He used to be the deputy general manager of TCL Zhonghuan.
Director: Zhang Changxu
Ms. Zhang Changxu's resume: born in 1975, bachelor's degree, master's degree, associate senior engineer. In the past five years, he has served as the director, deputy general manager and chief financial officer of Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. and the internal position of various subsidiaries of Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd.
Main business
Mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of semiconductor discrete devices and monocrystalline silicon materials, the company's main products are high-voltage silicon stacks, silicon bridge rectifiers, fast recovery rectifier diodes, monocrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon wafers.
R&D investment statistics
1. Proportion of the latest R&D expenses
TCL Zhonghuan's 2022 annual report shows that the company's R&D investment this year was 3.771 billion yuan, accounting for 5.63% of operating income, and the R&D expense rate increased compared with the previous year. The company has a total of 1,252 R&D and technical service personnel, accounting for 7.20% of the company's total number. The company has newly authorized 211 patents (95 invention patents and 116 utility model patents).
Changes in R&D investment in the past five years
In the past five years, TCL Zhonghuan's R&D investment has exceeded sales and management expenses, with R&D investment of 9.200 billion in the past five years, and the ratio of R&D to operating income has decreased from 5.64% in 2018 to 5.63% in 2022
Financial analysis
Core financial metrics fluctuate
Valuation analysis
1. Comparison of industry valuations
From the perspective of industry valuation, in the current dynamic valuation indicators of TCL Zhonghuan, PE, PB and PS are lower than the industry average, and the stock price has a certain probability of being relatively undervalued and has a certain potential for value-added.
2. Valuation trend analysis
From the perspective of its own valuation trend, PE, PB, PEG, PCF, and PS are at a relatively low level in the past year in the current valuation indicators of TCL Zhonghuan.
Industry analysis
Financial Entity Graph
Industry comparison
Market sentiment and public opinion analysis
Institutional perspectives
Performance forecasts
As of 2024-01-30, a total of 26 institutions have made predictions for TCL Zhonghuan's 2024 annual performance within 6 months, forecasting earnings per share of 2.99 yuan in 2024, an annual growth rate of 60.75%, and predicting a net profit of 9.663 billion yuan in 2024, an annual growth rate of 67.21%.
Agency Ratings
In the last 6 months, 19 research reports have rated TCL Zhonghuan, with 89% recommending buy, and the overall rating is "buy".
Institutional reviews
Institutional Review-Key Points (Last 6 Months)
●Technological innovation and manufacturing transformation provide endogenous competitiveness
●Significant increase in cash flow
●Global integrated layout helps to expand overseas markets
Risk Warning - Key Points (Last 6 Months)
●The progress of capacity expansion is less than expected
●Wafer/module prices have fallen sharply recently
●Peer competition was higher than expected
Note: The appendix is from the intelligent report of the Yi Digital APP, which is automatically generated by AI.