[Text/Observer Network columnist Major General Eugene]
It has been more than 100 days since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and military operations have not stopped surrounding the entire Middle East region and even the Islamic world.
In general, the conflict revolves around the Israeli authorities and non-governmental resistance groups, and is limited to attacks on military bases in Israeli-controlled areas, military bases of countries such as the United States and illegally occupied areas, as well as the clearance of areas of these resistance forces by the Israeli army and its external support.
On January 2, 2024, U.S. forces bombed the headquarters of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces in Baghdad, killing the commander of the unit, Talib al-Saedi.
However, judging from the news released by the media, this unique "tacit understanding" was broken on January 16, 2024. Iran, which had been on the sidelines, suddenly launched long-range strikes against multiple targets in Pakistan, Iraq and Syria over a 24-hour period, followed by a strongly worded statement.
Immediately afterwards, the relevant parties in Middle East affairs immediately took sides and expressed their positions. The Arab League took the lead in condemning Iran's missile attack on Iraq. Since then, the Pakistani government has also taken a strong stance against Iran's attack: first withdrawing its ambassador to Iran, and then launching Operation Marg Bar Samacha, which launched airstrikes on the Provence regions of Sistan and Baluchistan in eastern Iran.
However, immediately after the air forces of the two sides finished bombing each other's territory, Iran and Pakistan immediately resumed diplomatic relations, and the special envoys of both sides also went to each other's countries for cordial and friendly exchanges. The situation is similar in Iraq, where the Iraqi government has condemned Iran's attack and protested to the Arab League and the United Nations for diplomatic protests, but the main part of the government's statement is to call on the US military and its proxies to withdraw from Iraq and lift the illegal occupation as soon as possible.
Why did Iran, which has always been cautious, suddenly launch an unreasonable round of attacks at this time, and why did the various "attacked" parties react so lightly to the attacks?
First of all, the external environment – there are examples to follow:
Although rarely reported in the mainstream media, it is a common phenomenon in the Middle East and Central Asia, where civilian armed forces, terrorist groups, foreign occupation forces and local independence ists are divided, and puppets are widely supported by external forces, to launch cross-border military operations without informing the countries concerned. Since the end of the Iraq war, a so-called "anti-terrorism" or similar slogan can justify trampling on the sovereignty of all relevant regional states.
Syria situation map and the marking of the actual control area in early October 2022
Further afield, there are similar operations carried out by the United States occupation forces, such as the missile assassinations of General Qassem Soleimani and the commander of the Iraqi Popular Defence Forces, Abu Mehdi Al-Mohandis, during their normal visits, and the bombing of anti-terrorist coalition forces during the battles of Deir Ezzor and Mosul.
More recently, from October last year to early January this year, the US and Israeli forces carried out "deterrent attacks" on Syria's Damascus International Airport and Aleppo Airport, which were not parties to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Turkey, which is not a party to the conflict, carried out bombing operations against Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish forces and US troops on December 26 last year and January 15 this year. Phenomena such as these are common in the region, and they are only followed up by the media when the need arises.
Although Iran has always tried its best to avoid being regarded as a hegemonic interventionist, in response to the attacks planned by the United States, Israel and other countries, as well as NATO's support of subversive forces in the surrounding areas, Iran has also launched several strikes against US military bases in Iraq and the "Iranian insurgent training and command center" established by US troops in Iraq's Kurdish zone.
For example, on March 13, 2022, Iran carried out intensive attacks on the area around the consulate in Erbil Province, Kurdistan Autonomous Region in northern Iraq, destroying several high-end hotels and villas suspected of housing important people. As far as the incident itself is concerned, Iraq has somewhat "lying down" elements, but Iran's attack has indeed posed a challenge to Iraq's sovereignty and national dignity.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was more targeted in this attack than the previous attack in Erbil, pictured here is the documents of Israeli intelligence officers allegedly recovered by rescue teams in Kurdish villas
From a bystander's point of view, since the actions of Israel, the United States, and Turkey, whether in the short or long term, will not be condemned by the international community and retaliated against, there are obvious examples for other countries in the region to use similar reasons and means to carry out "military adventures." Moreover, Iran also has a precedent for carrying out strikes in the region, which has formed the basis for external public opinion and international feedback on the attack.
Secondly, the internal environment – the necessary actions:
If people outside of Iran look at Iran on the basis of outside news reports and grapevine, they usually come to two diametrically opposed conclusions. In the eyes of some people, Iran is a stupid and backward house full of pro-Western forces, which can fall down at the slightest touch, many bureaucrats and wealthy businessmen hold a large amount of overseas assets, and there are not a few naked officials whose children and family members are overseas, and the degree of infiltration and corruption at home is very high; but in the eyes of some people, Iran is a "country of old protection," whose leadership has a strong appeal to the people, and there is no shortage of righteous people who die generously, and they are keen to export ideology to the outside world.
From the "hijab incident" to the so-called "Tehran Witness drone factory attack" in 2022, the outside world has seen the former, but in the turbulent Middle East chaos and the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it is more of the latter.
Indeed, Iran, by virtue of its role as the general backstage of the "Arc of Resistance", has managed to stay out of the situation and avoid direct involvement in the confrontation. At the same time, by supporting allies from Yemen in the east to Pakistan in the west, the arrogant US military has been brought into contact with the Israeli army, and even given NATO countries a taste of a partial naval blockade that has rarely been felt since World War II.
However, this does not mean that the basis of the former point of view does not exist - corruption, external spokespersons, national separatist forces, terrorists, neoliberals...... has been gnawing at the foundations of this country. For every multi-ethnic country like Iran, with its vast territory and ancient history, these are the problems they need to face and solve in today's world.
As Iran's main energies turned outward, its internal enemies also began to become active. When the United States and Israel are unable to gain the upper hand in the frontal battlefield, their strategy has also begun to turn to "sideline tactics" - that is, to reduce Iran's ability to support and interfere with the outside world by sabotaging Iran's internal affairs, to undermine its popular morale, and to divert its government's goals and energy.
On December 15, 2023, the police headquarters of Rasker County, Baluchistan Province, Sistan, Iran, was attacked by the Adel Army terrorist group in Pakistan, killing 11 police officers and injuring seven. On January 3, 2024, during a commemoration of General Soleimani in Kerman, two terrorists carried out a suicide bomb attack that killed 103 innocent civilians and injured hundreds, the youngest of whom was less than a meter tall.
On January 3, local time, the scene of the tragic scene after the terrorist attack in Kerman, Iran. Picture from Visual China
If we look at the purpose of forcing Iran to launch an external attack and take it personally, this strategy has indeed worked to a certain extent. Traditionally, Islam and Persian culture emphasize blood debt retribution, and although "blood revenge" is illegal under current Iranian law, at the national level, attacking and bringing to justice the perpetrators of harm to its own people is an important way for the Iranian government to gain ruling authority. However, the operation must be carried out with care in order to avoid a direct confrontation with the Western camp and Israel.
The missile that launched the attack had a slogan "Pink Jacket" written on it
That is why the parties to the blood feud – terrorists based in Pakistan's Balochistan province, extremist groups based in areas of northwestern Syria under the control of Turkish servants, and the safe houses and command and coordination centers of the Mossad and the CIA in Iraq's Kurto region, which help extremist groups and Iran's domestic opposition, are the targets of Iran's foreign strikes.
Results & Feedback
The results of Iran's three attacks on targets in Syria, Iran and Afghanistan have been different. In Syria, long-range missile strikes did destroy targets by surprise and caused heavy losses to extremist groups in northwestern Syria in terms of personnel and weaponry, but did not constitute an effective blow to their chain of command in Turkey.
However, the attack was not in vain, as it at least demonstrated Iran's ability to directly support the Syrian army, and that the Iranian army possessed ballistic missiles that could reach Israel with high accuracy, and that it had also served to share the pressure and boost the morale of the resistance forces that had been harassing the US and Kurdish-occupied territories in Syria.
In Iraq, the Fatah 110 missile also did an excellent job, sending Pesław Dizaye, the richest man in Kurdistan province and a multimillionaire, along with two of his Israeli intelligence partners and his family. Incidentally, they also bombed nearby military bases and Mossad intelligence facilities that were painful to Iraqi resistors.
Although this move has caused some damage to Iran's international image in the Arab region and diluted the political gains brought about by the rapprochement with Saudi Arabia to a certain extent, Iran has indeed demonstrated its strength and will, providing a new fulcrum of security concerns for Iraq to drive out US military bases and crack down on domestic separatist forces and separatist forces.
According to a number of media and analyst reports, the Pentagon, which also ignored the Iraqi government's request to withdraw troops on January 9, began consultations with the Iraqi government on January 25 and considered gradually withdrawing troops and heavy weapons from Syria and Iraq in order to prevent "American soldiers from becoming hostages in the hands of Iran and its military allies."
Of course, the development of events will need to be followed by observation. If the Iranians really relied on this round of missile and drone attacks alone to make the last straw that crushed the withdrawal of US troops, it would really be regarded as a typical case of military struggle in the early 21 st century, and it is likely to be imitated by other countries and regional forces.
However, as mentioned earlier, the impact of this attack was not entirely positive. The attacks boosted the morale of the resistance and civilians everywhere, but they also tempted them to embark on more aggressive military adventures. However, this may be counterproductive in following the principle of moderation and the preservation of valuable vital forces and military equipment in guerrilla warfare in a situation where the enemy is strong and we are weak.
Even so, it is not difficult to conclude that Iran's attacks on terrorists and separatist forces in Iraq and Syria did not cause resentment in both countries, but also played a role in shocking the forces behind the terrorists. This will play a significant role in the comprehensive settlement of the Syrian crisis and in Iraq's escape from the occupation of the "international coalition" led by the US military.
On January 29, 2024, the illegal fortress set up by the US military in the Tanf area of the border crossing of Syria, Jordan and Iraq was hit by a missile attack from Iraqi civil resistance groups, killing three and wounding 40.
In contrast, striking Pakistan is a "low-cost, low-benefit" attack. Although the Balo tribe on the border between Afghanistan and Iran is relatively active, their strength is quite limited, and the majority of their funding comes from India, so air strikes against them cannot hurt them at all. Because of its relationship with the United States and the Islamic world's age-old tradition of "local self-government," Pakistan's military is unlikely to carry out a military clearance of its own Balochistan province, let alone eliminate the threat to itself and Iran, at least in the short term.
Of course, the "small gains" here refer to the short-term gains in counter-terrorism and military and economic aspects. Politically, the tacit understanding between the two sides in the follow-up statements is expected to further deepen regional security, political exchanges and intergovernmental cooperation, which will help stabilize the regional situation.
In the near future, the region will build a vast network of passenger and freight railways and roads connecting Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran, and eventually connect to China in the east and Europe in the west. This undoubtedly requires an overall and stable environment to move forward, but the local area is still not peaceful, and terrorist organizations and agents of external forces trying to influence and sabotage construction are still ready to move.
If countries in the region fail to work together to eradicate these cancers on the international counter-terrorism agenda, the effectiveness of this network will be greatly diminished and it will not meet the expectations of all parties. After all, it is difficult for a region with a poor security situation to secure external investment and cooperation. It can only be said that it is hoped that one day, this kind of "half-pushed" "mutual military strikes" can be turned into all-round and effective three-dimensional counter-terrorism cooperation, so that external interference forces and local extremist organizations will have nothing to hide. At that time, Asia and the world may undergo earth-shaking changes.
And until that day comes, this kind of missile attack against the "terrorism" that the non-Western world refers to is probably going to continue.
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