Shao Chunbao: The smart industry is emerging from the horizon
Reform and innovation
★★★★★
In recent years, there are three forces promoting digital development, including technology-driven, industrial value, and industry guidance, and it is the interaction of technology, industry, and industry that has given birth to the budding growth of intelligent industries, which is a new phenomenon in the development of the digital economy. 1. The Explosion of Generative AI Brings Driving ForceThe technology drive needs explosive power to form a strong radiation and influence on the industry. Generative AI is exploding in 2023. It gives people the impression that it is concentrated in spring and winter, with OpenAI releasing chatgpt-4 in March, followed by Baidu releasing Wenxin Yiyan. In October, Baidu released Wenxin Yiyan 4.0, which can solve complex problems, in November, the OpneAI developer conference announced a blockbuster update to ChatGPT, and GPT-4 Turbo brought a powerful impact, in December, Google released the multi-modal large model Gemini, and Guo Wenjing, a Chinese scholar in the United States, developed video Pika, and many AI video generation tools emerged. The outbreak has not stopped, and AI is deepening vertically and horizontally. The drive of the eruption is from near to far. Generative AI drives the expansion of digital industries. Generative AI is the first to impact the digital information industry. The information industry has been stable at three levels for a long time, that is, the basic modern communication network operation, that is, the business operated by telecommunications, mobile, China Unicom, radio and television, etc.; the provision of software and hardware such as the manufacturing of information and communication equipment terminals in the middle, which is operated by Huawei, ZTE, Xiaomi, Lenovo, etc.; and the high-level Internet, which is operated by Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Douyin, etc. Driven by the explosion of generative AI, it is likely to expand into the intelligent industry. This is the transformation, application, and industrialization of generative AI achievements. Generative AI expands into traditional industries. The impact of the drive extends to a larger scale, thanks to three distinct advantages: First, AI is a general-purpose technology that is highly diffuse and widely applicable. Continental 100 Model War is also developing vertical large models when developing general large models, and various enterprises and R&D institutions are focusing on industry applications to promote the implementation of generative AI. Second, the mainland has manufacturing advantages, and the combination of generative AI and manufacturing technology will promote the intelligence of the manufacturing industry, which will consolidate and develop "Made in China" at a high level. Third, the mainland's consumer Internet is extending to the industrial Internet, which is just the right time to promote generative AI to traditional industries. It can be seen that many fields will usher in new opportunities for AI applications. Generative AI is only valuable when it becomes an industry. Second, the intelligent industry will generate new value Every wave of technological innovation, the media and society are very concerned. In fact, the implementation of technology is more important, and technology becomes valuable when it becomes an industry. There is already a foundation for the industrialization of generative AI. Its commercial use is almost a matter of course. In the exploration of the 100-model war, some enterprises and R&D institutions have used the general model in industries and other links that are limited by small models, and Baidu's Wenxin Yiyan has been tested and openly used by the public, and the people have benefited from adaptation; Huawei's Pangu model and other vertical models have been used in relevant industries; Robin Li said that if enterprises can make good use of large models, they will get the greatest benefits. Microsoft's recent market capitalization over Apple has benefited from the use of OpenAI technology in its various products, and the McKinsey report believes that "generative AI has attracted interest in the corporate world, with people in different regions, industries, and seniorities using generative AI technology both in and out of work." [1] Andrew Ng, an AI scientist and professor at Stanford University, said, "AI may have driven hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe trillions of dollars." In a recent session at the International Consumer Electronics Show, Ng and scientist Li Feifei argued that "the business foundation of AI is stronger than ever" and that the application of AI technology is changing the basic structure of our economy and society. [2] With a certain commercial foundation, it is necessary to open up industrialization paths. Innovate ways to apply generative AI. The use of AI is also a process of innovation and technology translation. One is applied to mobile phones. Qualcomm CEO said that "generative AI is entering mobile phones very quickly", and through smart applications on mobile phones, it can easily guide people's daily life and work; This requires application enterprises to coordinate with technical partners or AI service providers, receive professional support and resources, and find ways to work together by understanding the working principles and application scenarios of AI technology, such as at the AI technology infrastructure layer of cloud service providers, to create and generate applications and improve work efficiency. Third, the general large model can change the previous AI "one scenario, one model" approach. For example, it is used to reduce costs and provide better and more convenient services. Fourth, generative AI is used for data infrastructure. AI scientist Li Feifei said, "Start where there is the most data, where the data can show repeatable patterns or good patterns,"[3] and apply generative AI to promote the empowerment of data elements and intelligent upgrades. When generative AI is about to be applied, enterprises are concerned about the autonomous operation of generative AI, and employees are worried about what to do if AI replaces their jobs. AI replaces human positions and human-machine collaboration. For enterprises concerned about the effect of AI applications, it is more feasible and understandable to "decompose", decomposing work into several tasks and assigning them to AI, or even decomposing a task to be delivered. For employees' concerns, it is important to understand that human-machine collaboration, partial job replacement, and more job replacement is a gradual transition, and the number will also go through a process from less to more. Whether AI replaces people's jobs or people's jobs are replaced by AI, there is an adaptation period. Even though AI can complete some tasks autonomously, some tasks are more efficient if they are done by humans, and they are still done by humans. For society, it is necessary to take precautions, and to coordinate labor and employment with AI to replace people's work, so that the loss of workers is not as terrible as imagined. On the one hand, while training human-machine collaboration, it is necessary to open up new jobs for some employees, such as guiding people to culture, art, science and technology and other creative, creative, innovative, and creative jobs and learning; on the one hand, when we see that artificial intelligence produces a huge number of high-quality products and services, we must study the distribution of wealth produced by intelligent robots, such as whether some experts propose to collect taxes from robots, etc., to protect people's lives. Third, the industry should guide enterprises to select the best filtration industry is greater than the industry, and the industry is greater than the enterprise. The industry is the intermediate link between the industry and the enterprise, reflecting the industrial trend and guiding the development of the enterprise. In the advantages, value, and uncertainties of generative AI, the industry should play a guiding and regulatory role, and should do at least the following three aspects: prevent the risks caused by different generative AI R&D paradigms at the source. Zhong Yixin, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of Beijing University of Posts and Communications, believes that artificial intelligence should be developed under the paradigm of information disciplines, and at present, generative AI mostly adopts the paradigm of material disciplines, without adopting the scientific outlook and methodology of information disciplines, which may affect the decision-making methods, general capabilities and intelligent understanding of AI, resulting in unpredictable risks. [4] Regulate the safety, compatibility and quality of different products. Even if the technical paradigm of research and development is correct, there will be certain technical risks and hidden dangers. Especially with a technology as profound as AI, it will become more complicated with human society. This requires guarding against the risks of technology and its products. From the Q* and other special projects revealed by 0penAI, people realize that AI commercialization and AI ethics are in a competition. Therefore, it is important for industries and companies to take measures to deal with risks and to reach as much agreement as possible between business decisions and ethical and social decisions. Prevent the formation of algorithmic computing power hegemony. The faster and better AI is used, the more expensive the computing algorithm, and there is still a gap between us and Microsoft's cloud, OpenAI's algorithm, and NVIDIA's computing power. The United States violated the rules of the market and stuck the neck of the mainland, Nvidia gave us "pickled products", and recently mainland Internet companies switched to local products such as Huawei, which will promote the improvement of the computing power level of AI algorithms in the mainland. In short, in the face of the application and industrialization of generative AI, it is necessary to give full play to the positive role of science and technology, industry, and industry, maximize the advantages of all parties, seize the opportunity, and catch the express train of intelligent industry development. At the same time, it is necessary to curb potential risks, stay away from hype, and avoid investing in the direction that AI is not yet ready. If the risk is too high, don't be too aggressive. It is necessary to gradually turn the guidance and governance of science and technology, industries, industries and enterprises into the power of the system to ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the digital economy. (This is the author's keynote speech at the 2023 Digital Economy Navigator Conference and Innovation Impact Annual Conference on January 16, 2024) References: [1] McKinsey released: "The State of AI in 2023: The Year of the Explosion of Generative AI" https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20230817A0788100, Global Technology Map, 2023-08-17[2] [3] Yitao: "Li Feifei, Andrew Ng: This time, AI winter will not come", https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1787837876363335171&wfr=spider&for=pc Geek Park 2024-01-12[4]Academician Zhong Yixin's speech at the "Hundred Cities Mayors Public Welfare Forum" on January 12, 2024. [Shao Chunbao: Member of the Chang'an Street Reading Club, Vice Chairman of the China Association for the Promotion of International Economic and Technical Cooperation]
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