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The 2023 A-share performance forecast has come to an end, and the performance of many time-honored Chinese medicine brands is promising.
After trading on January 30, Tong Ren Tang (600085. SH), Pien Tze Huang (600436. SH) has successively disclosed its 2023 results. Among them, Tong Ren Tang expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.568 billion yuan ~ 1.668 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 10% ~ 17%, and a non-net profit of 1.539 billion yuan ~ 1.639 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10% ~ 17.2%. Pien Tze Huang's performance express report shows that in 2023, the total operating income will be 10.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.42%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.59%, and the non-net profit will be 2.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.89%.
In 2022, Tong Ren Tang's net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.17% year-on-year, and Pien Tze Huang's net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 1.66% year-on-year. In 2023, the performance growth rate of Tong Ren Tang and Pien Tze Huang will maintain steady growth, but the capital market does not buy this beautiful report card.
On January 30 and 31, the stock prices of Tong Ren Tang and Pien Tze Huang fell for two consecutive trading days. Among them, Tong Ren Tang gained a falling limit on January 30 and closed down 6.96% the next day, while Pien Tze Huang fell 2.23% and 9.16% respectively, and even fell to a limit on the morning of January 31.
On the afternoon of January 31, Pien Tze Huang quickly announced the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2024. According to the announcement, during the beginning of 2024, the company's product sales momentum is improving, the market is showing a booming sales trend, and the "good start" has been successfully achieved. According to the company's preliminary accounting, it is expected that in the first quarter of 2024, the company will achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of no less than 25%.
At this time, there are still two months before the end of the first quarter of 2024, Pien Tze Huang hurriedly announced the first-quarter performance forecast, and the forecast for the net profit growth rate in the first quarter has reached 25%. The last time Pien Tze Huang achieved a net profit growth of more than 25% in the first quarter was in 2018.
Guo Shiliang, a financial commentator and financial expert, pointed out to the analysis of Times Finance: "Generally speaking, the performance forecast time is usually about a month before the announcement of the annual report or quarterly report. Now it is a little early to announce it more than two months in advance, and it may be that listed companies are in a hurry to boost their stock prices and do a good job in market value management. ”
However, judging from the reaction of the secondary market, Pien Tze Huang's "good start" has not been able to boost market confidence. The question for most investors is, with only one month in 2024, what is the basis for Pien Tze Huang's forecast of the first quarter performance in advance?
For these questions, Pien Tze Huang did not give a convincing explanation.
In the announcement, Pien Tze Huang said that the company's operating performance forecast data for the first quarter of 2024 is based on market development in line with expectations, the stable development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry, and the stable international trade situation, and the actual situation in the future is highly uncertain.
Judging from various indications, the sharp fluctuation in the stock price on January 31 may be the main reason for Pien Tze Huang's hasty release of the first quarter performance forecast.
On the afternoon of January 31, Times Finance called Pien Tze Huang's securities department many times, but the phone was busy. After the phone was connected, a relevant person from Pien Tze Huang's securities department told Times Finance: "Today's stock price fluctuates, and many investors call to ask about it. ”
Guo Shiliang pointed out to Times Finance that the decline in stock prices may be related to the early realization of January results and the fact that the price increase strategy did not exchange for greater purchase demand, and the stock price is a barometer of the performance of listed companies, and the market has certain doubts about this performance and future price increase strategy.
In May 2023, Pien Tze Huang officially announced the largest price increase decision in history. The retail price of Pien Tze Huang's leading product, Pien Tze Huang lozenges, in the domestic market will be raised from 590 yuan/tablet to 760 yuan/tablet, with a price increase of 28.8%, while the supply price will be increased by about 170 yuan/tablet, and the supply price in overseas markets will be raised by about 35 US dollars/tablet.
Pien Tze Huang is one of the only two national top-secret traditional Chinese medicine formulas, and the main raw materials include musk, bezoar, snake gallbladder and notoginseng, of which musk and snake gallbladder need to be purchased in strict accordance with relevant national regulations. The particularity of the formula status and the scarcity of raw materials have always allowed Pien Tze Huang to occupy a place among the time-honored brands of traditional Chinese medicine. Even if Pien Tze Huang is expensive, it does not affect the market's pursuit of it.
In fact, product price increases have always been Pien Tze Huang's tried and tested "magic weapon" to boost performance. In 2004, Pien Tze Huang successively increased the export and domestic sales prices of its products by about 5%, which directly promoted the growth of sales revenue and profits in 2004, and further improved the gross profit margin of Pien Tze Huang's products. This year, the sales revenue and profit of Pien Tze Huang series products increased by 16.43% and 13.38% year-on-year respectively, and the main business income and profit increased by 18.68% and 21.17% respectively.
In 2005, Pien Tze Huang continued to raise prices. According to the annual report, the business income of Pien Tze Huang series products in 2005 was 234 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.67%, and the profit margin was as high as 73.5%. Pien Tze Huang said in the announcement that year that the company's uniqueness lies in the fact that its performance growth depends on price increases, and unlike the vast majority of domestic preparation companies, which are due to marketing, the slight increase in the price of the company's Pien Tze Huang series products has not inhibited its terminal consumption, which is the fundamental reason for its stable performance.
In recent years, Pien Tze Huang's price increase strategy is still the same. At the beginning of 2020, the retail price of Pien Tze Huang was raised to 590 yuan/tablet.
After the price increase in 2020, the financial report data shows that from 2020 to 2021, Pien Tze Huang's operating income increased by 13.78% and 23.20% year-on-year respectively, and the year-on-year growth of net profit reached 21.62% and 45.46% respectively.
In 2022, Pien Tze Huang will achieve an operating income of 8.694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, and a net profit of 2.472 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.66%, which is the slowest growth year for Pien Tze Huang since 2015.
In 2023, Pien Tze Huang officially announced the largest price increase in history, but the performance in 2023 has not increased as much as before. If the price increase strategy has "failed", then whether Pien Tze Huang's myth of "Moutai in medicine" can be sustained will also be marked with a question mark.