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"Causing great concern in the West"

author:Journal of Decision Making and Information

The news that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will dismiss the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Zaluzhny, has been spreading in the media and networks of Ukraine and the West for several days, causing great concern in the West. According to a report on the websites of the Financial Times and The Economist magazine on January 30, multiple people familiar with the matter revealed that Zelensky offered Zaluzhny a new position and asked him to resign as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but Zaluzhny still refused. The New York Times said that after the news of the infighting between the two sides was leaked, Zelensky temporarily shelved the plan due to public opinion, but he did not give up on it. According to Bloomberg, after the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to achieve the desired results last year, the United States is now more worried that the "differences" between Zelensky and Zaluzhny are "weakening efforts to develop a new (offensive) strategy."

"Causing great concern in the West"

Who stopped the order to remove

The Financial Times, citing four people familiar with the matter, revealed that Zelensky held talks with Zaluzhny on January 29. Zelensky offered Zaluzhny a new position in charge of national security and asked him to resign, but Zaluzhny refused. People familiar with the matter also said that Zelenskyy has made it clear to Zaluzhny that he will be removed from his current position regardless of whether he takes over a new position. The report also said that the possible candidates to replace Zaluzhny are the commander of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, and the head of the Main Directorate of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, Budanov, both of whom have close ties with Zelensky.

The day before, the news of "Zaluzhny's dismissal" was rampant in the Ukrainian online media and social media, and similar news was reported by Interfax-Ukraine, Ukrainska Pravda and other media. In this regard, Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Ukrainian Military Intelligence, posted on social media on the 30th: "Only trust official information. Rumors on social media must be verified, not following feelings. ”

The New York Times quoted a former senior Ukrainian official as saying that Zelensky suspended the plan after the relevant news was leaked on the 29th. However, Zelensky did not give up on dismissing Zaluzhny, but only put it on hold for a while due to public opinion.

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said on the 30th that in recent months, Zelensky has almost dismissed Zaluzhny more than once. What exactly prompted Zelensky to inform the latter of the decision on the 29th is not yet clear. It is also unclear what prevented the final issuance of this order. The report speculates that either the Western partners of the Kiev authorities intervene, or there are difficulties in appointing a new commander-in-chief. According to the source, neither Syrsky nor Budanov was in a hurry to take over Zaluzhny's post and rejected the appointment.

"The Economist" said on the 30th that rumors about Zaluzhny being dismissed have been going on for several months in Ukrainian political circles, military circles, news media and the Internet, and the recent public contradictions between him and Zelensky have further intensified the relevant speculation. In November last year, Zaluzhny confirmed that the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive had reached a "stalemate", which caused Zelensky's dissatisfaction, and the Ukrainian president's office publicly condemned Zaluzhny's above remarks, saying that his statement caused panic among Western allies and made it easier for the "aggressor" to succeed. The relationship between the two is becoming increasingly strained. It is unclear how the incident will end, the report said. But if Zaluzhny remains in office, it will make Zelensky appear weak, and if he is dismissed, it will only damage the credibility of the Ukrainian leadership among the people.

Huge chaos

The website of Ukrainska Pravda said on January 31 that Zaluzhny's dismissal may only be a matter of time and may pose a risk to Ukraine's internal and ongoing war. The report quoted sources as saying that "disagreements have reached a critical point" between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. It is likely that this is not only a different view of the war, but also a personal contradiction and a lack of trust.

According to the New York Times, the Kyiv government will distract from the war by the huge confusion over the fate of the Supreme Commander. According to the report, for Zelensky, the removal of Zaluzhny from his post will raise thorny political issues. Several Ukrainian lawmakers said the chaos at the top had spread to the military, affecting the morale of soldiers and the cooperation between senior officers and their allied counterparts. According to the report, the turmoil in the leadership could put Ukraine "at a particularly dangerous moment".

Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that the United States is concerned that the feud between Zelensky and Zaluzhny is hampering Kyiv's military operations. According to the report, the Biden administration hopes that Ukraine will "strengthen" its plans to fight Russia in 2024. However, according to the source, Washington fears that the "differences" between Zelensky and Zaluzhny are "weakening efforts to develop a new (offensive) strategy."

According to a TASS report on January 31, regarding the rumors of Zaluzhny's dismissal, Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on the same day that Russia is paying attention to the news. One thing is obvious, he said, there are a lot of problems with the Kiev authorities, and everything is not going well there. "Obviously, the failure of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army and the problems of the front line are leading to growing contradictions between the Kyiv authorities - both in the army and at the top of the administration. "As the Russian army's operations proceed smoothly, these contradictions faced by the Ukrainian authorities will intensify. ”

"Terrible Statement"

On February 1, the EU will hold a special summit on aid to Ukraine. During a visit to Sweden on January 31, French President Emmanuel Macron urged European leaders to make "bold decisions" and "accelerate aid to Ukraine." Macron also said that European countries should "support Ukraine for the long term" and be prepared "in case Washington decides to stop aiding Ukraine." On the same day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said in parliament that every effort will be made to unite European partners and ensure assistance to Ukraine.

Although European countries are verbally calling for strengthening aid to Ukraine, there are many internal contradictions. The British "Guardian" said that a few days ago, Scholz complained that other European countries did not provide enough aid to Ukraine, which was considered an indirect criticism of Macron. According to the report, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany's direct aid to Ukraine has reached 17.1 billion euros, while France's direct aid to Ukraine has only reached 544 million euros. In response to Germany's criticism, the European Commission's internal market commissioner, the Frenchman Breton, countered that Germany directly aided Ukraine, instead of investing funds in the European Peace Fund, and this kind of individual action "cannot fool anyone".

According to Reuters, ahead of the EU summit, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell called on the EU to reject the idea of asking Ukraine for peace talks and a ceasefire, and instead "Kyiv should be allowed to defeat Moscow at all costs." He called EU leaders "should refuse the temptation to reconcile with Russia," and "this idea was wrong in 2022 and remains wrong today." In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said on January 31 that Borrell's remarks were "shocking" and a "terrible statement." "The West has created conflicts, but it has not allowed reconciliation and allowed people to live a normal life," she said. Russian State Duma deputy Chepa said: "For those who start the fire, especially the United States, who are behind the scenes, it is not good to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict." ”

Source: "Global Times" WeChat public account

Author: Xiao Xinxin, Liu Yupeng

Editor: Chen Liting

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