Inventory of energy storage industry chain and leading enterprises
(Energy Storage Pie)
The links involved in the energy storage industry chain include: 1. Energy storage system: including batteries, PCS, BMS, EMS and other links, the specific targets include CATL, EVE Lithium Energy, Sungrow, Nandu Power, Cresda, Kehua Data, etc., among which the leading companies CATL, BYD, Sungrow, Jinlang Technology, etc. are exported overseas; 2. Engineering EPC, grid-connected testing, and post-operation and maintenance: specific targets include Southern Power Grid Technology, Canadian Solar, Linyang Energy, Baoguang Electric, Wanliyang, Electric Power Research Institute, etc.
1. Energy storage batteries
The material system of energy storage batteries is dominated by lithium iron phosphate, and the battery continues to evolve in the direction of large capacity. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the energy density of energy storage batteries ≥ 145Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs ≥ 110Wh/kg. The cycle life is ≥ 5000 times and the capacity retention rate is ≥ 80%. At present, electrochemical energy storage, especially lithium battery energy storage technology, has entered a new cycle of change, with new products and technologies such as large cells, high voltage, and water-cooled/liquid-cooled gradually appearing on the stage, and energy storage systems are continuing to evolve in the direction of large capacity, while sodium-ion batteries may occupy a place in the future with cost advantages.
Chinese manufacturers of global energy storage cells lead in shipments, and CATL ranks first in the world in terms of shipments. According to estimates, in 2021, the global energy storage cell shipment will be 59.9GWh, of which CATL, as the largest battery cell supplier, occupies the first place, with 16.7GWh of shipments, accounting for 27.9%, and Paineng Technology, as the leader of household storage, will ship 1.5GWh, accounting for 2.6%. We expect global shipments in 2022 to be 114.9GWh, up 91.9% year-on-year, of which CATL will ship 45.0GWh, up 169.5% year-on-year, and Paineng Technology will ship 3.5GWh, up 127.3% year-on-year.
According to estimates, it is estimated that the global energy storage cell shipments in 2022-2023 will be 122.5/219.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 101%/79%, among which, CATL, as the largest battery cell supplier, occupies the top spot, and we expect CATL to ship 50/100GWh in 2022-2023, a year-on-year increase of 199%/100%, accounting for 40.8%/45.5%, and the leading position is stable.
Second, inverter technology
In the field of inverter technology, DC 1500V has become a trend to replace the traditional 1000V architecture, and the penetration of power plants is relatively fast. In 2021, the domestic PV DC voltage level of 1500V accounted for about 49.4%, and the 1000V market accounted for 50.6%. In terms of separation, 1000V voltage is still the mainstream in distributed photovoltaics, and all households have adopted 1000V systems in 21 years, and 80% of industrial and commercial enterprises have adopted 1000V systems. The 1500V energy storage system has obvious advantages, and the core product of the 1500V system is the 1500V energy storage PCS. The energy density and power density of the 1500V energy storage system will be increased by 35%+ on the original basis, the system cost will be reduced by 5%+, and the system efficiency will be increased by 0.3%+. Under the 40-foot container + 280Ah battery cell, the maximum installed capacity of 1000V battery is 3.3MWh, and 1500V can be increased to 4.5MWh. In recent large-scale projects, the penetration rate of 1500V has exceeded 2/3. The representative manufacturers are: Sunshine, Sineng, Kehua. Among them, Sineng Electric has contracted the 1500V PCS of 5 100-megawatt energy storage projects in Shandong.
The application of inverter technology is endless, and string PCS has begun to be applied on a large scale. String PCS makes up for the lack of centralized and opens up large-scale applications. At present, the battery energy storage system in the industry mainly adopts centralized PCS, and the parallel connection of multiple groups of batteries will cause the imbalance between the battery clusters, and for a long time, there will be a part of the battery in the parallel battery cluster The actual output is insufficient, and the other part exceeds the multiplier to use the phenomenon, resulting in the "barrel" effect; Application example 1-2: Huaneng Huangtai 100MW/200MWh project is the first large-scale energy storage power station in China to adopt string PCS architecture (PCS is provided by Sineng), and Shandong Dezhou Linyang PV Storage 3MW/6MWh project also adopts this system architecture (Huawei provides the complete system). Application example 3: 200MW optical storage experimental platform in Daqing, State Power Investment Oil City. Sineng provided 230 sets of 250kW string inverters, dozens of 225kW and 175kW string inverters, 3.125MW centralized all-in-one machines, 3.15MW distributed all-in-one machines and other inverters for the base. Among them, the 250kW string inverter has changed the traditional and conventional decentralized installation method, and has been designed through a 1MW integrated platform and carried out centralized operation and maintenance management mode, which greatly saves time and manpower and improves operation and maintenance efficiency.
Integrating digital information technology with photovoltaic and energy storage technologies, Huawei has proposed for the first time a new concept of string-based, intelligent, and modular design of energy storage systems, implementing refined management at the battery module level, generating more discharge capacity (reducing battery configuration by 13% and improving battery life by 50%), achieving better investment (reducing initial configuration by 30%), simplifying O&M (reducing O&M costs by CNY 50 million over 25 years), improving security and stability (increasing availability to 99%), and reducing overall LCOS by 20% The above will ultimately help to achieve the transition from photovoltaic parity to photovoltaic storage parity. The disadvantage is that the current PCS cost is higher, but there is a lot of room for price reduction, refer to string PV inverters. Representative manufacturers: Huawei, Sineng, Shenghong.
The first-mover advantage of the leading enterprises is obvious, the competition among the latecomers is fierce, and the market pattern of energy storage converters is still undecided. According to CNESA, from 2018 to 2021, the top 10 energy storage converter manufacturers in mainland China have been constantly changing, except for a few companies such as Sineng Electric, Sungrow, and Kehua Data that have maintained their leading position for many years, and new entrants have emerged in an endless stream. In the future, with the further development of the market, we believe that enterprises with product, channel and cost advantages will still benefit from the high growth rate of the industry and finally stand out.
3. Electrical topology
In terms of electrical topology, the high-voltage cascade scheme with large capacity has significant advantages. With the increase of the capacity of the energy storage integrated system, the traditional series booster scheme will face a variety of problems: the number of cells required under large capacity is large, and the safety risk is greater; with the increase of the number of cell cycles, the differentiation of the battery cell body is gradually reflected, and the system consistency becomes worse; due to the above two factors, the capacity of the system is usually limited, and with the increase of parallel equipment, the secondary communication and coordination control become more complex. The advantages of the high-voltage cascade scheme under large capacity are highlighted: the high-voltage cascade scheme is composed of multiple energy storage units, which are combined with deparalleling, and each energy storage unit outputs tens to hundreds of volts of voltage, which discretizes the battery stack, which not only greatly reduces the power of the battery stack, reduces the number of battery cells in the battery stack, but also greatly improves the system capacity and system safety. At present, there are several domestic enterprises that have mastered the high-voltage cascade technology: Guodian NARI, Kinpan Technology, Zhiguang Electric, Sifang Co., Ltd., Xinfengguang, etc., among which the high-voltage cascade scheme of Kinpan Technology products has been implemented faster and has a larger capacity, and related products have been released first and have received 135 million orders.
Fourth, energy storage safety
In recent years, energy storage power station fires have occurred frequently, temperature control thermal management, energy storage fire protection have been emphasized, industry policies have been introduced one after another, and the development of energy storage fire protection systems has accelerated. Lithium metal in lithium-ion batteries is the most active metal among the known elements (including radioactive elements), and thermal runaway occurs from time to time in the automotive field, which lays a safety hazard for the application of lithium batteries in energy storage. According to incomplete statistics, there have been more than 17 energy storage fire accidents around the world in 2022, and since 2021, the country has issued a number of policies related to energy storage fire safety, and the importance of energy storage fire protection under the new standard has been continuously highlighted.
5. Energy storage system integration
In the field of energy storage system integration, there are many integrator players, and a variety of models coexist, and now there are three main modes: I., the layout of the whole industry chain: battery cells, PCS, BMS, EMS are all self-produced, and the domestic representative enterprise is BYD. II. Professional integration: integrators purchase components from the outside, specializing in system integration, the model is less used in China, represented by foreign Doosan, IHI, etc.;III., based on its own products, from a simple equipment supplier to a system integrator transformation: the model is the most widely used in China, and the representative enterprises are: 1. Photovoltaic inverter cut into PCS manufacturers Jinlang Technology, GoodWe, Deye Technology, etc.; 2. Power battery cut into energy storage battery manufacturers Yiwei Lithium Energy, Penghui Energy, etc.; 3. by power equipment, Electronic equipment cut into PCS/BMS/EMS and other components of the manufacturers of Jinpan Technology, Cresda, Kehua Data, Baoguang shares, Kelu Electronics, etc. Looking back at the U.S. market, we can find that mainstream integration vendors have adopted the above three models.
Project resources and customer resources are important competitive points for energy storage system integrators. In terms of project resources, for integrators, the projects that have been built and the orders that have been obtained are effective proof of the company's existing strength and have a guiding role in obtaining future orders. At the same time, in the long run, energy storage projects have limited resources at the grid-connected points.
In terms of customer resources: 1. From the perspective of project acquisition, the current demand for energy storage on the power generation side still mainly comes from the compulsory distribution and storage of new energy, and the power group is the main force in the development of wind power and photovoltaics, and it is also the main source of bidding projects. In 2021, Huawei and Sungrow signed a series of strategic cooperation agreements with power groups such as "Two Networks" and "Five Networks and Six Small Networks", as well as local governments, in order to have greater advantages in project acquisition. 2. From the perspective of revenue accounting, independent energy storage and shared energy storage must accept the unified dispatch of the power grid in order to participate in the spot market and auxiliary service market transactions, and enterprises with relevant resources are more likely to be in a favorable position in the later market transactions. Analyzing and comparing the projects and customer resources of major energy storage integrators, it can be found that major enterprises have established cooperative relations with major power grid groups, in addition, Kehua Data, Haibo Strong, Kelu Electronics, etc. have greater potential on the industrial and commercial side and the residential side, and may profit in the acquisition of shared energy storage and other projects in the long term. In terms of projects, Sungrow, Haibo Sichuang and other leading companies have more than GWh project construction experience, the first-mover advantage is obvious; at the same time, the rising star Jinpan Technology, Kelu Electronics and other orders have a strong ability to obtain orders; in addition, the industry demand is strong, the enterprise expansion efforts are larger, Jinpan Technology, Zhiguang Co., Ltd.'s existing production capacity is more than GWh, is still in the process of expansion.
There are many players in energy storage integrators, and the participation links are differentiated. Energy storage integrators usually have a full-line layout on the power generation side, the grid side, and the user side, but through the separation of existing projects and orders in hand, we believe that different companies still have their own focuses, and the market is showing a differentiated competition situation. Specifically, it can be distinguished from three sides, domestic and foreign dimensions: