summary
The overall tracking of the credit bond momentum index: continuous recovery. 1) This week, the total credit bond momentum index rose by 0.8 points, an increase of 3.3% from last week, and is currently at a high historical quantile value of 84.3%. 2) The 3-year AA+ urban investment spread was 41.7bp, narrowing 0.5bp from last week.
Tracking of the kinetic energy index of various types of bonds: In terms of different types of bonds, the turnover rate of spot bonds increased slightly this week, the rhythm of industrial bond issuance was restored, and the kinetic energy index of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds both rose. Among them, the performance of the urban investment bond momentum index is better than that of the industrial bond momentum index, and the differentiation between the two narrows to 4.8 points, however, under the leadership of the rise in the momentum of urban investment bonds, its absolute value has rebounded to the level of October last year since the beginning of the year.
Urban investment bond momentum index: extending the rally. 1) This week, the momentum index of urban investment bonds rose by 0.7 points, an increase of 2.5% from last week, and is currently at the historical quantile value of 79.2%. 2) In terms of the degree of deviation from the trend value, the momentum index of urban investment bonds widened to 6.4% this week, which is within the normal fluctuation range.
Industrial bond momentum index: still at a high level. 1) This week, the industrial bond momentum index rose by 0.9 points, an increase of 3.7% from last week, and is currently at a higher historical quantile value of 86%. 2) This week, the deviation of the industrial bond momentum index from the trend item widened to 3.7%, which is within the normal fluctuation range.
Risk warning: the calculation index variables are distorted, the index calculation method needs to be adjusted, and the credit event impact index.
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[Overall tracking of credit bond momentum index]
This week, the total credit bond momentum index rose by 0.8 points, an increase of 3.3% from last week, and is currently at a higher historical quantile value of 84.3%. The 3-year AA+ urban investment spread was 41.7bp, narrowing 0.5bp from last week.
【Kinetic energy index tracking of each type of bond】
In terms of types of bonds, the turnover rate of spot bonds increased slightly this week, the rhythm of industrial bond issuance was restored, and the kinetic energy index of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds both rose. Among them, the performance of the urban investment bond momentum index is better than that of the industrial bond momentum index, and the differentiation between the two narrows to 4.8 points, however, under the leadership of the rise in the momentum of urban investment bonds, its absolute value has rebounded to the level of October last year since the beginning of the year.
1. Urban investment bond momentum index: continue to rise
This week, the urban investment bond momentum index rose 0.7 points, an increase of 2.5% from last week, and is currently at the historical quantile value of 79.2%. In terms of the degree of deviation from the trend value, the momentum index of urban investment bonds has widened to 6.4% this week, which is within the normal fluctuation range.
2. Industrial bond momentum index: still at a high level
This week, the industrial bond momentum index rose 0.9 points, an increase of 3.7% from last week, and is currently at a high historical quantile of 86%. This week, the deviation of the industrial bond momentum index from the trend item widened to 3.7%, which is within the normal fluctuation range.
Analysts of this report
尹睿哲 SAC执业证书编号：S1450523120003
李豫泽 SAC执业证书编号：S1450523120004
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