As the Sino-US technology war heats up, the rise of domestic systems seems to be a foregone conclusion. According to the data, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the market share of Huawei's self-developed HarmonyOS system has exceeded 15%, close to the so-called "life and death line" of 16%. This means that the HarmonyOS system is close to a complete foothold. Huawei fought back strongly, and in 2024, it will become the No. 1 mobile phone shipment in China. At the same time, Huawei officially released HarmonyOS 3.0 - a pure-blooded self-developed system, which is no longer compatible with Android.
However, apart from Huawei, will other domestic mobile phone brands follow suit and adopt HarmonyOS? The answer seems to be no, because no one wants to be the next Huawei.
Once embarked on this road, except for Huawei, other mobile phone manufacturers will basically be killed. There are two reasons for this:
First, the gap in strength. The leading manufacturers represented by Huawei have strong technical strength and business territory due to years of accumulation. After the mobile phone business is sanctioned, it can also move to many fields such as communications, PCs, and automobiles. However, except for the head enterprises, most domestic mobile phone manufacturers rely too much on a single business of mobile phones. Once they lose the supply of core technology, they have no way back.
Second, market differences. Huawei's overseas market prospects are not good, so the comprehensive self-development of Hongmeng has become its best choice. However, this is not the case for companies such as Xiaomi and OPPO, which mainly rely on overseas markets. Xiaomi's overseas market accounts for more than 70%, and OPPO and vivo also have more than half. If the Android ecosystem is abandoned, the blow to them will be huge.
Therefore, although the market prospect of HarmonyOS is exciting, except for Huawei, other domestic manufacturers are basically unlikely to adopt it. It is destined to become Huawei's own system, not an industry share. After all, under the "cloud of sanctions", no one wants to be the next Huawei.
Of course, this does not mean that other domestic manufacturers have given up independent research and development. In fact, the domestic system is gaining momentum, and major manufacturers are also actively deploying. It's just that at present, the vast majority of companies will still choose to be compatible with the Android system, rather than completely self-developed.
Among them, the MIUI system launched by Xiaomi is more representative. It is based on Android deep customization and retains the compatibility of the Android ecosystem. At the same time, Xiaomi is also actively exploring greater autonomy and control. In the future, this "Android + self-developed" model may become the mainstream of the choice of large manufacturers.
Of course, under the promotion of policies, the process of domestic systems is also accelerating. The industry expects that in the next 5 years or so, more than 10 domestic systems for different scenarios will come out. They are either Android-based or have fully autonomous kernels. This will greatly enhance the maturity and influence of the domestic system.
In other words, the general trend of domestic systems has gone. Major manufacturers are also preparing for long-term development. However, considering the transformation risk and the international situation, except for Huawei, other brands will still seek stability in the short term on "Android + self-development". This is the best choice after all things considered.
Of course, some companies such as Lenovo and ZTE that have less influence in overseas markets may also join the ranks of Hongmeng. After all, this provides them with the opportunity to compete with the leading players. But even so, HarmonyOS is still far away if it wants to become the standard.
Therefore, although HarmonyOS represents the highest level of domestic systems, it is difficult to become a unified industry standard from a business point of view. Based on practical considerations, it is reasonable for domestic mobile phone manufacturers to choose to keep an appropriate distance from it.
Of course, this situation will not last forever. With the continuous maturity of the domestic system, manufacturers will one day face a choice. But at least in the foreseeable future, "Android + self-development" will still be the mainstream direction. At most, HarmonyOS has become the self-used system of a very small number of manufacturers. From this point of view, it is understandable that no one wants to be the next Huawei.
To sum up, the Hongmeng system is technically remarkable, but considering the limitations of reality, it is difficult to do much in the domestic mobile phone market. Based on the maximization of their own interests, domestic manufacturers will still be cautious on the road of "Android + self-development". This also reflects the helplessness of various enterprises from the side, but it is also a rational choice. After all, in this day and age, no one wants to be the next Huawei.