This week is very miserable, the Shanghai Composite Index has a high of 2924 points and a minimum of 2724 points, which is the super amplitude of 200 points, which not only caused some highly leveraged funds to blow up their positions, but also gave the bears a hard lesson in the backhand Silianyang. This is the power of big money, it is not too simple to manipulate the market, and at the same time, the redistribution of wealth has been completed.
In response to this problem, Da Ge has something to say, and please read this article carefully. First of all, there is basically not much suspense about the Shanghai Composite Index monthly line 6 consecutive yin, after all, there are 3 trading days left this month, but there are still 60 points away from the monthly closing, so this month's monthly K-line is undoubtedly a long-legged hammer line.
Taking the daily bottoming hammer line on January 18 as an example, at that time, my prediction for this week was to determine the effectiveness of the bottom after the second dip was completed, but I didn't expect to fall out of the small stock market crash in the end. But this point has actually been interpreted on the weekly chart of the 2863 point bottom, so for the market in February, there is a high probability that there will be a second bottoming action.
Secondly, on the weekly chart, the performance of the major indices is mixed, among which the Shanghai Composite Index bottoming rebound signal has been established, and the Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 Indices have also verified the bottoming signal of last week's Doji. However, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have just closed out of the change doji, and it remains to be seen whether the change bottom signal can be verified next week!
At the same time, there is another point that needs to be told to you, that is, the weekly bottom divergence structure of the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 300 Index has been formed, as I told you before, once the weekly bottom divergence structure is formed, then the next 24 weeks (6 months) The market is basically worry-free. Unfortunately, the coordination of the index is a bit poor, and the weekly line of the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index does not have a structural match.
Finally, there is also a bit of a problem with the daily chart, where the technical divergence of the Shanghai Composite Index has disappeared due to the sharp decline, but the daily bottom divergence structure of other indices has been formed. From the perspective of daily structure, at least corresponding to the 24-day rebound cycle, now the Shanghai 50 index short-term trend is the strongest, has rebounded for 7 trading days, the ChiNext index rebounded the weakest, but also rebounded for 3 days.
So basically, from now until the end of February, it will be within the rebound cycle corresponding to the divergence structure at the bottom of the daily line. Here we only need to pay attention to the next signal, that is, whether we can stand firm in the long-term trend line in the remaining trading days, the structure is to serve the trend, if the structure is effective, it should break through the double moving average to form a reversal signal, otherwise it is a rebound.
The advantage of quantitative analysis is that you can set the standard and then follow the rules. What we can be sure of now is that the prototype of the A-share bottom has appeared, but it is very difficult to continue to squeeze short, unless the disk protection team continues to pull blue chips next week, then when the index returns to 3000, it may be that the small ticket will also experience a multi-kill stampede.
This is the most stupid behavior, there was a joke during the stock market crash in 15 years, the bank bought at 5178 points was untied at 3500 points. Is it much more exciting than now, it is clear that this is an invalid disk, I still say that, now the prefix is pulled above because large funds will be allocated this kind of variety, which is determined by the attributes of funds.
However, if you want to stabilize confidence and liquidity, it is definitely not enough to pull a large blue chip alone, so if your current holdings do not outperform the market, there is no need to rush to get angry. Of course, the market also has a balance function, and the adjustment of the rise is more, and the rebound of the adjustment is deep, which itself is also in line with the natural way of the middle of the day, the moon is eclipse, and the water is full.
To sum up, the signal of the bottom of the large cycle has been clear, and it is basically difficult to break through 2724.16 points. However, considering that A-shares have just liquidated a group of high-quality users, and at the same time, they will experience the Spring Festival holiday in February, coupled with the technical pressure of the second step back on the monthly line, I still maintain the view of volatility and climbing, and the general direction is right to deal with dips and longs.
As for the market trend next week, the Shanghai Composite Index will do a see-saw around the short-term trend line as scheduled, and there is a high probability that it will wait for the 5-day line to form support, so the see-saw here will continue. However, if you hit the long-term trend line after gaining momentum next week, the closer you are to the long-term trend line, the more you must be alert to the risk of short-term chasing up, and you should pay attention to switching between high and low at that time!
In a word, the general direction is bullish, but we must be prepared to fight a protracted war, remember that dips and longs are the main tone!As for the details, we need more market and data to cooperate with the analysis, interested friends can add a focus on tracking and seeing, and we will combine the real-time market to do detailed analysis every day! Follow me, I am @Trend Radar168!