Two years ago, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, once predicted in a joking tone that a civil war would break out in the United States and Texas would become independent.
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, at the request of the federal government, the US Supreme Court ruled to allow the removal of the "razor's barbed wire" set up in the border between Texas and Mexico, but the Texas state government took a very tough attitude towards this and sent strong personnel to prevent the federal government personnel from carrying out the demolition work.
Barbed wire at the U.S.-Mexico border
According to the request of Biden, the head of the U.S. federal government, this Friday (January 26, local time) is the deadline for the Texas government to allow federal government personnel to enter the dismantling of the "razor's barbed wire".
Texas Lieutenant Governor Patrick accused the Biden-led federal government of "making the biggest mistake", saying that while Texas was busy doing what the United States wanted to do most, it was confronting Texas law enforcement and the National Guard over border immigration, and Texas Governor Abbott said that if there was an "invasion", he would take self-defense measures according to the situation.
Abbott
At the same time, the confrontation between the Texas government and the federal government has also been supported by the governors of 25 red states, among which the governors of Oklahoma and Florida have expressed their willingness to send the National Guard to Texas, and former US President Trump has also expressed his support for Abbott's decision.
Abbott's position of "resisting reunification by force" can be supported by 25 red states, and it is conceivable how much public anger the Biden administration has offended on the border immigration issue, of course, the "reunification" here is not integration or merger, but the refusal of the federal government to manage the border immigration issue in a unified manner, which actually reflects the struggle between the two parties in the United States, which has reached the verge of being very tense.
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Considering the prevailing and conservative civil sentiments in the southern states of the United States, as well as the fact that the governor has the National Guard in his hands, it is unlikely that he will compromise with the Biden administration on the issue of border immigration, so will the Texas government continue to confront the federal government, as Medvedev said, "American Civil War, Texas independence"?
In fact, theoretically speaking, of course, there is such a possibility, after all, Texas has a tendency to be independent, not to mention that it is still in the environment of fierce confrontation between the two parties in the United States, but strictly speaking, such a possibility only exists in theory, or at least at the moment is not very likely.
The donkey-elephant controversy
First of all, it is necessary to understand that the essence of the quarrel between the Texas government and the federal government is that the Democratic and Republican parties have differences on the border immigration issue, and it is not a matter of "life or death" to say that the sky is broken, so as long as one side is willing to compromise, this seemingly tense confrontation will end immediately.
As things stand, the Republicans are unusually united against the Democrats' new deal on border immigration, and with the Republicans still holding a majority in Congress, it is not surprising that in the end the Biden administration will make a compromise or come up with a compromise that the Texas government can accept, and that is basically over.
Biden
Secondly, the collective solidarity of the red states with Texas is also a tactic of the Republican Party for the upcoming 2024 election, imagine that if the Democratic administration is unable to implement some policies, then voters need to reconsider the question of who to vote for, after all, no one wants to elect a government that can do nothing.
In this way, the bottom line of the Republican Party on the border immigration issue is basically determined, that is, the Democratic administration will give in and we will concede, so it is unlikely that Texas will fire the first shot of the American Civil War, and it will not be an "opportunity" for its independence.
Texas independence?
But on the other hand, if you think of the struggle between the two parties, such an exaggerated posture will inevitably aggravate the tendency of Texas independence and provoke antagonism between the people of the red and blue states.