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Text: Qingyuan
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In mid-December 2023, MSC, the world's largest container company, announced that all of its vessels would avoid the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on passing vessels.
By mid-January 2024, more than half of the world's cargo ships will choose to detour through the Cape of Good Hope in Africa "to protect life, property and cargo".
Global trade has been hampered by Houthi attacks on ships.
So, what is the current state of the Red Sea route, and why did the Houthis choose to do so?
(Alternative routes other than infrared routes)
The Red Sea route was blocked, and global trade was in a hurry
Global trade, shipping first.
However, the Red Sea route, the world's busiest cargo route, is now facing a serious crisis.
(How does the Red Sea crisis affect maritime trade?)
Companies operating the Red Sea route are now faced with the problem of the Houthi intrusion, which threatens the safety of shipping along the Red Sea route.
Companies that want their ships to travel along the Red Sea run the risk of being attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels.
At the same time, surging insurance costs will also increase costs, which is not a good thing for global trade.
At the moment, the most feasible way is to circumnavigate the Cape of Good Hope in Africa – but it will have an additional range of more than 6,400 kilometres, which not only affects timeliness, but also leads to more fuel consumption.
Whether or not to detour, it's obviously not a good idea – the costs that are forced to be raised will end up for consumers.
"Global supply chains are being used as a weapon," said Marco Forgeoun, a British trade official.
Since 2023, the global supply chain has slowly regained its vitality, sweeping away the malaise of the past three years.
The malaise was not only due to a public health outbreak, but also to the unexpected "closure" of the Suez Canal, which is located in the northwestern fortress of the Red Sea and on which the world's largest trade depends.
However, at the end of 2023, everything has become confusing again.
(The U.S. proud Reaper drone was shot down in the waters off Yemen)
Yemen's Houthis were the first to announce that they had shot down an MQ-9 drone used by the United States for "hostile, surveillance and espionage."
Yemen's move was also seen as a provocation to "declare war" on the United States.
In fact, Yemen's move is not unexpected.
After Israel's invasion of Gaza, Yemen's Houthis actively resisted Israel's actions and repeatedly sent troops to take control of Israeli ships.
The scope of these military operations is confined to the Red Sea.
The Houthis also fired drones and small missiles at Israel, although most of them were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, and a small number were shot down by US warships.
(downed MQ-9 drone)
The reason why Yemen attacked the American drone was precisely to "respond" to the United States.
Since then, the Houthis have grown in confidence and have begun to expand their presence in the Red Sea, gradually gaining control of Israeli-flagged vessels.
Targeting Israel and the United States near the Red Sea – the Houthis are clearly targeted.
After "intercepting" the Israeli ships, the Houthis took the opportunity to quickly attack the Israeli military port of Eilat, the mainland military port.
Naturally, the United States cannot sit idly by and watch the Houthis' actions.
(The Houthis confirm their own losses)
On the last day of 2023, the U.S. Navy raided the Houthis, sinking three opposing ships and killing dozens of militants — the U.S. dubbed Operation Prosperity Defender.
After the clashes between the United States and the Houthis in the Red Sea, the calm that should have been restored did not come as expected.
Maersk, the world's largest shipping company, immediately announced the suspension of shipping for 48 hours.
Since then, other shipping companies around the world have stopped their operations or begun to detour the Cape of Good Hope in Africa.
(Giant ship full of containers)
As a result, it is highly likely that global oil prices will soar, at least temporarily, and fluctuations will be inevitable.
Where does the Houthi confidence come from?
The situation is unclear, but Britain and the United States cannot sit still.
In early January 2024, Britain and the United States jointly bombed Yemen.
Biden directly singled out: "This is the response to the Iranian-backed Houthis." ”
In addition to the UK, Bahrain, Canada and Australia are also involved.
How can the Houthis be good? They immediately shot back: "Britain and the United States will pay a heavy price for their actions." ”
(British Rafale fighter jets bomb the Houthis)
The United States, on the other hand, once again threw out "Tomahawk" missiles and struck dozens of armed strongholds in Yemen, resulting in heavy losses in Yemen.
British Rafale fighters took off from Cyprus and bombed the Yemeni capital.
At the same time, the UN Security Council has also issued a resolution demanding that the Houthis stop attacking ships in the Red Sea.
(U.S. warplanes take off from an aircraft carrier)
However, the West's military operations are faced with difficult choices.
Yemen's daring to attack Israel at this point in time shows that Iran behind them has given full support, so the Houthis will not back down in the face of international pressure;
In addition, the Houthis are no ordinary "weak talents", they have a powerful arsenal of weapons and ammunition, and they are not afraid of American Tomahawk missiles and Rafale fighters.
(British Diamond)
Despite the frequent downing of Houthi drones and attacks on their strongholds, the Houthis are not panicking – the cost of the base drone is only £16,000, while the Sea Viper missiles cost more than £1 million each.
For Anglo-American, this is a completely loss-making business.
In addition, the US aircraft carrier fleet also needs huge fuel costs.
Therefore, if you take a long-term view, you will find that intercepting drones with missiles is "cannon to fight mosquitoes", which is completely unrealistic.
(Houthi)
At the same time, Britain and the United States have to face "swarm attacks" from the Houthis.
And this is exactly the method of attack that the US military is afraid of.
In 2000, in the waters off the Gulf of Aden, Al Qaeda blew up the multibillion-dollar destroyer USS Cole with a battered speedboat loaded with explosives, killing 17 US troops.
After this battle, the defense system of the American fleet was greatly improved, but it was not impregnable.
Especially in the face of the "swarm attack" created by thousands of drones, it is even more difficult for US warships to parry.
In fact, Russia's military has done exactly what it has done on the battlefield in Ukraine, and with remarkable results.
(Anglo-American bombing of armed positions in Yemen)
Although almost all countries in the world want the United States to take action to punish the Houthis, the United States has been hesitant.
The Houthis, in fact, are "believers in Allah" and are staunch supporters of Hamas in Palestine.
Despite this disruption to global trade, the countries of the Arab region see them as heroes.
Arab countries have always considered the assistance of the United States team Israel to be "a big problem".
Although they don't like the Houthis either, they don't dare to target the Houthis who "win the hearts and minds of the people."
The attacks launched by the United States and Britain against the Houthis have been regarded as "attacks by the United States and Israel against Arab countries."
If the United States intensifies its crackdown, it will undoubtedly further complicate the already intractable Palestinian-Israeli issue.
(Ships sailing on the Red Sea)
Saudi Arabia, an ally of the United States, is even more happy to draw the Houthi attention to external affairs.
In this way, the Houthis are the targets of "not being able to fight hard", and there are many constraints.
Resources:
"After taking control of an Israeli ship": how powerful are the Houthis in the Red Sea? BBC News Chinese
The Red Sea shipping crisis hits global trade and supply chains New York Times Chinese Network
The United States and Britain launched airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen The West "faces a difficult choice" in the Red Sea standoff Al Jazeera