Soft landing: This week's U.S. data points to a "no landing"! Is the "interest rate cut deal" going to be discounted?

Since 2022, there has been a voice in the market that the US economy will fall into recession due to inflation, but this week's US data seems to point to another answer - not only is there no recession, but the US economy is even better than a "soft landing", with faint signs of "no landing".

Statistically, while consumers have complained about the high cost of food, housing and energy, their work and consumption activities have not stopped. According to the analysis, this may be the key to the growth of the US economy in 2024.

But when market expectations for US GDP (and PCE) soar again, will investors' "rate cut trade" be discounted?

Economic growth exceeds expectations, and "no landing" has become the new normal?

Data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed that the U.S. economy grew at 3.3 percent in the last quarter of last year, down from 4.9 percent in the third quarter but still above Wall Street's 2 percent expectations.

The data shows that consumption is the main driver of this growth, as spending grows faster than income. Mike Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, expressed skepticism:

Americans are willing to dip into their savings or borrow more to maintain consumption, but this pattern may be unsustainable because saving and borrowing are always limited.

However, in the short term, the US economy still looks quite solid. The data shows that the growth of U.S. GDP is also due to the increase in corporate inventories and the rise in capital investment in equipment, structures, intellectual property rights, etc., indicating that U.S. companies remain confident in the U.S. economy.

In addition, inflationary pressures in the United States have also eased, with the Fed's favorite core PCE price index showing that the core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year-on-year in December, lower than the expected value of 3% and the previous value of 3.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate hit a new low since March 2021.

At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate is at its lowest level in nearly four decades, and the S&P 500 index hit a record high for five consecutive days.

The U.S. housing market is also gradually recovering, with new home sales up 8% in December. The increase was partly due to lower mortgage rates, the analysis said. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.69% on Jan. 25, down from 7.8% in October.

Economic data show that the current situation of the US economy does not conform to the traditional "soft landing" model, but more like opening a new situation of "no landing" for the economy. It is worth mentioning that all this happened after the Fed made the most aggressive rate hike in a generation. Since March 2022, the benchmark lending rate has increased from almost 0% to between 5.25% and 5.5% now.

Separately, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecasting tool, a real-time indicator of economic activity, showed growth of about 2.4% in the current quarter. The latest S&P Global PMI data showed that the pace of overall economic activity in January was the fastest since June last year. In this regard, Chris Williamson of S&P Global said:

"The data showed that the economic performance at the start of the year was encouraging, with a marked acceleration in growth and a marked reduction in inflationary pressures. ”

It is worth mentioning that on the energy side, against the backdrop of OPEC's continued production cuts and the Red Sea crisis, the price of gasoline in the United States has instead fallen by about 2 cents per gallon over the past month, according to the AAA Auto Club of the United States. In this regard, Bill Adams, chief economist of Dallas Unicredit, said:

"Household incomes are growing faster than inflation, and domestic energy production is surging, offsetting supply disruptions and geopolitical risks in the Middle East. ”

Is the "rate cut deal" going to be discounted?

Against this backdrop, Bill Adams, chief economist at UniCredit Bank of Dallas, said:

"I don't believe the Fed is ready to 'celebrate the victory.'" ”

He believes that the Fed will continue to "show caution" at next week's policy meeting:

"The Fed is still watching the momentum of price increases since the pandemic, as well as the growth in housing costs. At the same time, the Fed is concerned that wage growth could exacerbate wage-price pressures. ”

The current market data is also in line with Adams' view. According to the data, the market is now pricing in a 45% chance of a rate cut in March, with a 133 basis point cut in 2024, down from 85% and 165 basis points a week ago.

Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trading Americas, said:

"The economy has been beating economists' forecasts, and Powell must be secretly rejoicing today as he challenged forecasts with strong growth and apparently controlled inflation. ”

This article does not constitute personal investment advice, does not represent the views of the platform, the market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, please make independent judgment and decision-making.

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