#精品长文创作季#
At the beginning of 2024, the U.S. election primaries have attracted worldwide attention, especially the comeback of former U.S. President Donald Trump, which has made the international community smell a hint of risk.
As the first former president of the United States to face criminal prosecution, Trump still threatens to return to the White House and complete his political "revenge" despite being riddled with cases.
Looking back on the past four years, the Biden Organization has launched an unprecedented political attack on Trump, and even tried to put the "red neck" spokesperson in jail, which has rarely happened in the American political arena before, which shows that the current political division in the United States has reached the point of incompatibility.
Therefore, many international strategic analysis institutions have judged that the US presidential election in 2024 will be the biggest risk factor in the world, and some people even predict that the United States may have "two White Houses".
If this sentence is placed in 2023, many people may feel that it is unfounded, after all, although Trump also threatened to run for president at that time, his support rate within the Republican Party is still up for debate, after all, DeSantis, a "future star" was being held up within the Republican Party at that time.
As the governor of Florida, DeSantis is enough to compete with Trump in terms of political resources and economic conditions, not to mention that compared with Trump, who is already in his seventies, DeSantis also has an advantage in age.
However, it is precisely because of DeSantis's relatively young age that he made serious mistakes in his campaign strategy in the context of "gerontocracy" in the United States, and finally lost the first election within the Republican Party not long ago.
According to outside analysis, the main reason why DeSantis failed to lag behind Trump by a large margin in the primary election is that DeSantis's campaign ideas are too similar, and both are spokesmen for conservatives and the establishment.
With the two running in the same category, Trump, who has four years of presidential experience, is clearly superior, and it is no wonder that if Trump does not run, DeSantis will definitely be the ultimate Republican candidate.
It's just that the real world can't be assumed, DeSantis made the astonishing decision to withdraw from the election after losing the primary, and what is even more unacceptable to other candidates is that DeSantis publicly expressed his support for Trump after withdrawing.
As a result, some of the votes of DeSantis' supporters will flow into Trump's camp, and DeSantis's withdrawal will undoubtedly preceded Trump's victory in the internal Republican election, when Trump himself is in the lead.
Of course, at present, Trump still has one rival left in the Republican Party - Haley, the former permanent representative of the United States to the United Nations, as the only female candidate in the Republican Party for this election, although Haley is trying to set off a female storm within the Republican Party, but in the face of the old and spicy Trump, Haley obviously has no chance of winning.
Therefore, it is almost certain that the US election in November 2024 will be between Trump and Biden, and it is likely that Trump will have the last laugh in the second "Huashan sword" after four years between the two.
Although Trump has not only been criticized, but also riddled with lawsuits, Trump is obviously more down-to-earth than Biden, and looking back on Biden's administration over the past four years, it is difficult to say that it is a passing answer.
Especially in the current environment of inflation and economic downturn in the United States, the American people hope to solve the problem by replacing people, not to mention Biden's age and physical condition have always been the object of concern and criticism from the outside world.
As the so-called Chunjiang plumbing duck prophet, the outside world has begun to prepare for Trump's return to power, and the Japanese side took the lead in sending Taro Aso, vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, to the United States, hoping to open up relations with Trump in advance.
South Korea plans to start negotiations with the United States on the military spending of the US military in South Korea in advance to avoid uncertainties after Trump takes office, and European countries have also released signals of concern, regarding the 2024 US election as an international political crisis.
Because some authoritative institutions predict that no matter who has the last laugh between Trump and Biden, the United States will only exacerbate internal divisions and eventually affect the political landscape of the world.
If Biden wins, Trump will be alleging that Biden was fraudulent in the election, and even mass protests will erupt, and if Trump wins, the Biden Organization will likely refuse to recognize the Trump administration.
As for the speculation and concerns of the outside world, Trump, who is active on social media, obviously does not care, not only said that he will solve the current situation of domestic inflation by developing domestic energy in the United States after taking office, but even unexpectedly publicly praised China's senior leadership.
Mr. Trump said that the leaders of China and Russia are very smart and genuinely want to make their countries better.
Of course, the reason why Trump commented on China's top level in this way is not to show goodwill to China, as we all know, Trump, as a representative of American conservatives, has always insisted on decoupling from China, and he cannot suddenly change course for the sake of the election.
In fact, Trump's praise of China's leaders is in contrast to current US President Joe Biden, who believes that Biden's performance in office does not represent the interests of the United States, let alone lead the United States to success.
Obviously, Trump is accusing Biden of his poor performance in the Russia-Ukraine war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, these two geopolitical conflicts have involved the United States, especially on the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
Indeed, it has become a well-recognized fact that Biden represents a vested interest in the US military-industrial complex system, which is why Trump compares Chinese and American leaders.
In addition, Trump also mentioned the Taiwan issue, of course, the cunning Trump did not directly answer whether he would "defend Taiwan" after being elected, such a sensitive topic, but accused Taiwan of stealing the chip business of the United States.
This has led many media to interpret that Trump is likely to sit on the sidelines when the Chinese government recovers Taiwan by force.
In fact, judging from Trump's past governing philosophy and current campaign strategy, the American conservatives represented by Trump will start from the interests of the United States when thinking about problems, which is the premise for considering the above issues.
As for who will win this year's US election, it actually does not matter, because no matter who wins, it will no longer be able to change the increasingly intensified internal contradictions in the United States, whether it is at the political, economic, and cultural levels, the United States has been extremely divided, and even in the field of democracy, the United States is also showing a state of polarization.
In this case, the United States, no matter who is elected, will move outward in the event that its internal contradictions cannot be resolved, making the world pay for its years of laissez-faire.