On January 24, the mainland and Uzbekistan issued the "China-Ukraine Joint Statement" (the full name of the "China-Uzbekistan Joint Statement on the All-Weather Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the New Era"), and China-Uzbekistan relations have been upgraded from a comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era to an all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership in the new era.
On January 24, the heads of state of China and Ukraine held talks in Beijing (Source: Xinhua News Agency, invaded and deleted)
The statement proposes cooperation between China and Uzbekistan in the fields of grain, agricultural products, agricultural water conservancy facilities, new energy (solar, wind and hydro), mineral resources development, machinery and equipment, etc., with special mention of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway and the Trans-Afghanistan Railway:
- The two sides agreed that the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project is of historical and strategic significance for strengthening the connectivity between the two countries and the region. The two sides are willing to accelerate the construction of the China-Central Asia transport corridor, promote the operation of the "China-Central Asia" container train, ensure the smooth operation of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan highway, and take practical measures to increase the volume of goods.
- The two sides emphasized the importance of the Trans-Afghanistan Railway project, which will promote transport and economic connectivity between Central and South Asia, and open up new prospects for expanding inter-regional commodity flows and economic exchanges.
- China is willing to encourage its enterprises to participate in the implementation of relevant projects in accordance with commercial and market principles.
1. China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway departs from Kashgar, Xinjiang, passes through the Turgat Pass, and passes through Kyrgyzstan to Andijan, Uzbekistan. The approximate route is: Kashgar - Torugart - Arpa - Makmal - Jalal-Abad - Andijan.
Schematic diagram of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway line
In May 2022, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, the railway was "understood" by Russia and was able to resume after a 25-year hiatus, in September 2022, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a memorandum of understanding, and in July 2023, the feasibility study of the project was completed, confirming the technical and economic feasibility.
The total length of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is about 523 kilometers (preliminary measurement). Among them, the section in mainland China is about 213 kilometers, the section in Kyrgyzstan is about 260 kilometers, and the section in Uzbekistan is about 50 kilometers.
In terms of mileage, the domestic section of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is only about 50 kilometers, and the terrain is flat, so technical construction, financing and time schedule are not problems. The problem is stuck in Kyrgyzstan.
The mileage of the section in Kyrgyzstan accounts for about 50%, and it is necessary to pass through the mountainous areas and build many tunnels, which is the section with the largest investment and the highest technical construction difficulty of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway. Therefore, the opening time of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway depends on Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan has limited financial resources and does not have the technical construction capacity, which requires financial and technical support from the Chinese side. If China provides support, of course, it will be compensated in terms of track gauge, management rights, resource development along the line, and commercial or supporting conditions. As a result, there is a need to negotiate and manage the financing and operation of the project to reach a consensus.
The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway was originally planned to start in the fall of 2023, but now the progress has been delayed, and the reason for this is actually a very normal thing. The implicit meaning of this sentence in the "Joint Statement" is roughly as follows:
- China is willing to encourage its enterprises to participate in the implementation of relevant projects in accordance with commercial and market principles.
Earlier, on January 3, 2024, the Kyrgyzstan Investment Bureau said at a press conference in Bishkek that the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will start in 2024, and all parties are discussing the best financing model and management model for the construction of the railway. On January 22, Kyrgyzstan's president said in an interview that "we will start building this railway soon."
Regarding the track gauge issue that netizens are concerned about, the information obtained by the author is (not very certain) that the section of Makmal from the Turgat Pass on the mainland to Kyrgyzstan is used on the quasi-gauge (1435mm), and the follow-up section is broad-gauge (1520mm). Kyrgyzstan plans to build a quasi-gauge broad-gauge train reloading yard in Makmal to become an inland port and trade center.
From the perspective of Asia and Europe, after the completion of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, it can extend three land bridge corridors to the west.
2. China-Central Asia-West Asia-Europe land bridge & China-Central Asia-Iran-Arabian Peninsula land bridge
After the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway reached Andijan ("Yucheng" recorded in the "Historical Records"), it followed the southern and northern edges of the Ferghana basin and reached the city of Kokand on two routes (the northern route via Namangan and the southern route to Zurgana).
From the city of Kokand to Khujand (belonging to Tajikistan), and then west to Samarkand via Jizzak, it is called "Kangju" in the history books of the mainland.
There is also a line through the northern edge of the Fergana Basin, the "Anglian-Pap" railway, this 169-kilometer railway connecting the capital of Uzbekistan with the Fergana Basin, was built on the mainland, the key section of which is the Kamchik Tunnel, which is 19.2 kilometers long and is the first railway tunnel in Uzbekistan.
That is to say, after the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway arrives at Andijan, it can reach Tashkent directly (in the Western Han Dynasty, it was called "Hidden City", one of the nine surnames of Zhaowu). Samarkand can also be reached via Tashkent.
Schematic diagram of the west extension of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway (Wu section).
Further west from Samarkand, across the Amu Darya, is Turkmenistan. The stations for the transorbit between Turkmenistan and Iran are Shelakhs and Salahs, which are the transfer points between the Central Asian broad gauge (1520mm) and the Iranian standard gauge (1435mm).
Schematic diagram of the western extension of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway (Utuyi section).
From Iran (quasi-gauge section) to the west, through Turkey (quasi-gauge section), and finally to Europe (quasi-gauge section). This railway line will shorten the transportation distance between China and Turkey by about 700-900 kilometers and reduce the transportation time by 3-5 days, making it the shortest route of "China-Central Asia-West Asia-Europe".
Schematic diagram of the land bridge between China and Central Asia and West Asia and Europe & the land bridge between China and Central Asia and Iran and the Arabian Peninsula
From Tehran, Iran (quasi-rail section) to the south, through Ahvaz to the "Iran-Iraq-Kuwait" tri-border zone, and then south, through Saudi Arabia's Hafabayan to Riyadh, and finally from Riyadh to the field, east to Dammam to connect the Persian Gulf, west to Jeddah to connect to the Red Sea.
In December 2022, China and Saudi Arabia issued the Joint Statement, and at the same time signed the Implementation Plan for the Alignment of the Belt and Road Initiative and Vision 2030 between China and Saudi Arabia.
- In the field of transportation and logistics services, the two sides stressed the need to strengthen cooperation, work together to develop modern transport industries such as air, sea and railway, and accelerate the completion of research related to the "Continental Bridge" railway network project.
In February 2023, the mainland and Iran issued a Joint Statement. In March 2023, the mainland, Saudi Arabia and Iran issued the Trilateral Joint Statement. After Saudi Arabia joined the BRICS, it announced a new plan to the world: to create a global logistics center connecting three continents.
3. China-Central Asia-South Asia Land Bridge
The Trans-Afghanistan Railway is the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Railway (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) and the "China-Kyrgyzstan-Baba Railway + Ukraine-Afghanistan-Pakistan Railway", which form a new corridor of "China-Central Asia-South Asia".
The Sino-Ukrainian Joint Statement mentions:
- The two sides emphasized the importance of the Trans-Afghanistan Railway project, which will promote transport and economic connectivity between Central and South Asia, and open up new prospects for expanding inter-regional commodity flows and economic exchanges.
- China welcomes the Resolution on Strengthening Connectivity in Central and South Asia proposed by the President of Uzbekistan adopted by the UN General Assembly, and is ready to deepen cooperation and jointly strengthen regional connectivity within the framework of the resolution.
In the May 2023 Sino-Ukrainian Joint Statement, the direction of the Ukrainian-Abakistani railway has been clarified:
- The parties noted the importance of implementing the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway project, which will further strengthen connectivity between Central and South Asia.
Schematic diagram of the western extension of the Trans-Afghanistan Railway and the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway
As can be seen from the map, the Ukrainian-Aba-Pakistan railway (Termez-Peshawar section) connects to the west extension of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway in Samarkand or Kagan to the north, and to the south, it connects to the Pakistani railway network in Peshawar, which can directly reach the port of Gwadar.
In other words, in the future, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway can connect with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through the Ukraine-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway, connecting China, Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Schematic diagram of the China-Central Asia-South Asia Land Bridge
It is worth noting that in the "Joint Statement" between China and Ukraine, Afghanistan is specifically mentioned, indicating that it will "promote Afghanistan's integration into the process of regional economic connectivity and integration." ”
- The two sides are ready to work with the international community to continue to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, promote Afghanistan's development, strengthen practical cooperation with Afghanistan, and promote Afghanistan's integration into regional economic connectivity.
In February 2023, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed on the construction of the Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway trunk line connecting the three countries and signed a roadmap for its implementation, which will connect transport and logistics routes within the framework of China's Belt and Road Initiative. In May, the three countries set up the "Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Railway Project Coordination Office" in Tashkent to carry out a feasibility study on the project. In July, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan formally signed an agreement on the Uzbekistan-Pakistan railway project.
In July 2023, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan formally reached an agreement on the Trans-Afghan Railway (source network, invasion and deletion)
With a total length of about 760 kilometers, an estimated investment of about US$4.8-8.2 billion, a construction period of about 5 years, and an expected completion in 2027-2028, the annual freight volume is forecast to be 15 million to 20 million tons.
Regarding the issue of track gauge, the railways in Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are 1520mm broad gauge, and the railways in Pakistan are 1676mm broad gauge. Previously, when Uzbekistan proposed this railway corridor, the proposed rail scheme was "1520mm+1676mm". Now, based on the consideration of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the China-Pakistan railway, the 1435mm quasi-gauge scheme has begun to be included in the discussion. All three sides hope that China will provide financial and construction help, and that bringing China in will also be able to solve the problem of economic development.