Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos had just sent a congratulatory letter to Lai Ching-te, the elected leader of the Taiwan region, and his attitude changed drastically in less than 10 days. After being strongly opposed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Marcos took the initiative to step down and gave China a clear explanation on the Taiwan issue.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos
Recently, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos has experienced a "180-degree turn" in his attitude on some China-related issues. In a recent interview with the Philippine media, Marcos made clear his position on the Taiwan issue. He claimed that he did not support the "independence" of the Taiwan region and made it clear that "Taiwan is only a province of China." He also stressed that this view of his has not changed in the past and will not change in the future.
Marcos' remarks not only reaffirmed the Philippines' adherence to the "one-China principle" foreign policy, but also clarified his previous behavior of congratulating Lai Qingde on social media and calling him "president". Marcos explained that it was only an expression based on "ordinary etiquette" and did not mean support for "Taiwan independence" or a departure from the "one-China principle."
Marcos also claimed that he was "surprised" by the "negative reaction" from the Chinese side to the incident. He even said in a high-sounding manner that he was very "peace-oriented" and did not want a regional conflict. Less than 10 days after Lai Qingde was elected, Marcos retracted his wild remarks, and did not even mention the "beached" warship at Ren'ai Jiao. I have to say that Marcos's attitude now is like "judging two people" compared to a few days ago.
Lai Ching-te was elected leader of the Taiwan region
Recently, the attitude of some forces in the Philippines is also worth speculating. After China condemned Marcos's support for the Taiwan authorities, the Philippine Foreign Minister and Marcos himself did not respond, but Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro quickly came forward and accused China of "making insulting remarks" in a rather provocative way, and even criticized Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning for making Marcos's remarks "vulgar and despicable."
One thing to know is that the Philippine military has a lot of influence in the country. It is precisely for this reason that soon after Marcos took office, the United States was granted the right to use four new military bases. Judging from Teodoro's recent statements, it is very likely that he is taking the opportunity to exacerbate the contradictions between China and the Philippines and make Marcos a stumbling block. After figuring this out, Marcos naturally didn't want to be taken into the ditch again, so his response this time may be to show Teodoro his attitude.
In fact, it can be seen from the many previous conflicts of the Philippine government that various departments of the Philippine side have their own different interests and demands, and they also collude with some foreign forces, and there is no so-called "one mind", which naturally deserves Marcos's vigilance.
Philippine Secretary of Defense Teodoro
In addition, the reason why Marcos changed his tune so quickly and recognized the "one-China principle" also has a lot to do with some situations at home and abroad. Judging from the domestic situation, Philippine Vice President Sarah recently announced that he will participate in the next general election. As the incumbent president, Marcos is naturally worried that he may face a political "aftermath" after the change of power.
Therefore, in order to consolidate his political position and reduce potential political confrontation in the future, Marcos decided to "take what he sees". First, it relaxed its "crackdown" on former President Rodrigo Duterte and did not allow the International Criminal Court to carry out investigative activities in the Philippines, hoping to save its precarious family alliance.
Secondly, Marcos's recent domestic reputation is not very good, especially after the scandal of his "private use of public aircraft" and taking his wife to a concert was exposed, and the Filipino people have become quite dissatisfied with him. In this case, Marcos will need to use some diplomatic actions to divert public attention and reshape his image. The Taiwan issue is undoubtedly a starting point.
Of course, the most important reason for Marcos's change of tune was pressure from China. After all, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's exhortation to Marcos to "read more books" is really deafening. The Chinese coast guard's expulsion of Filipino fishermen who illegally trespassed into Scarborough Shoal has also deterred the Marcos government to a certain extent, urging them not to "play with fire and set themselves on fire" and create such a "two-pronged trouble" in the South China Sea and Taiwan.
It is worth mentioning that as a popular figure in the next US election, Trump has also recently expressed his stance on the Taiwan issue. Although he did not directly say whether the United States would continue to "defend Taiwan", he severely criticized Taiwan's chip industry and stole the business of American semiconductors. Trump's subtle change in attitude has naturally attracted widespread attention from the international community, and it is estimated that it has also affected Marcos's decision-making to a greater or lesser extent.
Trump
In fact, China and the Philippines share many common interests. In recent years, the depth and breadth of cooperation between the two countries in the economic field have been expanding. For example, in terms of trade, China has long been one of the Philippines' major trading partners, and its imports and exports to the Philippines are increasing, involving a variety of goods and services. This trade relationship has boosted the Philippines' economic growth, while also making the Philippines more dependent on the Chinese market.
But since the Marcos administration's frequent provocations in the South China Sea late last year, the Philippines is gradually losing the opportunity to work further with China, a huge market. Not long ago, the Philippine media also published an article saying that due to the Marcos government's insistence, the Philippines is now losing a great opportunity to strengthen cooperation with China. The Philippines has missed out on a "soft rebound" in China's economy and is paying a high price for it.
Manila, the capital of the Philippines
Especially after the Marcos administration chose to "part ways" with the Belt and Road Initiative, the Philippines not only watched the economic level of other ASEAN countries flourish, but also had to bear the inflation that has been lingering in the country alone.
Ironically, the Philippines' National Tourism Administration has previously set a rather "ambitious" goal of hosting 2 million Chinese tourists in 2023. As a result, a year later, the actual number is less than 265,000, and the Marcos administration has only achieved one-tenth of its original target. Therefore, in order to recover the decline of the Philippine economy, Marcos will also choose to appropriately restrain his tough attitude towards China.
Marcos may have realized the seriousness of touching China's red line on the Taiwan issue, and gave a clear explanation to the Chinese side. However, on the South China Sea issue, the Philippines' attitude still deserves our vigilance. Recently, Marcos plans to visit Vietnam, and we need to pay attention to whether the Philippines will continue to "play demons" on the South China Sea issue.