The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released a new signal! I can finally buy a house in 2024?

▼ Text|Lao Mo

My friend said something very interesting, in the past, you had to buy a house if you borrowed money, but now even if you give you money, you may not necessarily buy a house?

Although this sentence is somewhat absolute, it does reflect the current situation of many people today. Coincidentally, in fact, we can see some clues from the current real estate data: in 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in mainland China will total 1.117 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5%, and the sales volume will be 11.68 trillion yuan, which will directly hit a new low since 2016.

If you are planning to buy a house, will you feel like you will retreat when you see this? Even if you don't, there must be someone who will. In fact, many people don't know when the best time to buy a house.

It's because we're so busy with work that we don't have time to study the property market. In this case, it is better to directly look at the advice of some experts and insiders, and there may be merit.

On January 17, Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, mentioned a crucial sentence at a press conference, but I found that everyone did not pay attention to it: after more than 20 years of development, the real estate market is in the process of adjustment and transformation, and all regions and departments are adapting to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market.

In this regard, I think there are at least two points revealed: 1. The mainland property market is indeed in transition, and in this process, there is a high probability that various data will decline; 2. The change in supply and demand has directly affected the development of the property market, so we can no longer follow the old road.

In fact, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released a new signal, and one of the cores is to improve the dual-track system of "affordable housing + commercial housing".

If you read my previous article carefully, then you will definitely find that this system is very similar to the logic of "foreclosure affects house prices". To put it simply, the price of affordable housing is much lower than that of commercial housing, and it cannot be traded freely, so it loses investment space and can naturally stabilize housing prices.

That is to say, as long as the mainland regards affordable housing as the focus of property market development in the future, it will be difficult for housing prices to rise. There are public data showing that:

In 2021, the market size of the mainland's affordable housing referendum has reached 909.5 billion yuan, and in 2022, it will increase to 991.3 billion yuan, although as of the first 10 months of 2023, it is slightly lower, only 569.4 billion yuan, but the volume is still very large.

Based on this, we can basically conclude that if you are in a hurry to buy a house, you can consider finalizing it in 2024, and if you are not so urgent, you can also observe for a while. In short, it is decided according to your actual needs.

Of course, at the same time, I would like to advise you to make 2 preparations:

The first is to stop following the trend. Don't be surprised, even now there are still people who blindly follow the trend and always like to follow others. For example, if a relative at home buys a set of 5 million large flats, and you can only buy a set of 2 million high-rise floors in the same area because the budget is not enough, it seems that there is not much difference, but in fact there is an essential difference.

Objectively speaking, with the continuous improvement of our living standards, the improved housing represented by western-style houses may be more popular in the future, but the pressure on high-rise housing and other rigid demand housing is very great.

The reason is very simple, the urbanization rate of the mainland has exceeded 65%, and there will rarely be large-scale migration in the future, which means that the number of people who just need it may decrease, but the number of people who improve it will increase.

The second is to get rid of the investment mindset. To tell the truth, the housing price pattern of 20,000+ in second-tier cities and 15,000+ in third-tier cities has basically been decided, and for salarymen, investment is really meaningless.

If you calculate carefully, even if you buy a small third house, you need to repay the loan at least 4,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan, can it still rise so much now? I don't say that it will not be, but it will definitely be difficult.

Instead of taking risks to invest, it is really better to seek stability, for us ordinary people, a stable life is the greatest happiness.

Sum up:

In fact, the first thing I am most worried about is that some people may continue to follow suit, which is a big taboo. It's already 2024, don't have the concept of 5 years ago or even 10 years ago, the times and the property market are changing, and we have to change too.

Of course, no matter how the property market changes, the main tone will not change in the future, that is, stability, so it extends to the second point, don't think about buying a house to get rich, don't be.

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