Frontier observation: "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet". As a key part of the industrial chain, many traders will go to the downstream market before the Spring Festival to measure the "temperature" and try the "cold and warm". Also before the Spring Festival, this year's polyester market has brought traders a different feeling.
Talking about the situation before the Spring Festival this year, the downstream bosses had a smile on their faces. Compared with before the Spring Festival last year, the mentality of the bosses this year is much better. It is understood that a company in Haining had a holiday a month before the Spring Festival last year, but this year's plan is to do it a week before the Spring Festival.
"As far as the weaving end is concerned, this year's weaving such as water jet loom enterprises have a late holiday. At present, Wujiang, Changxing, northern Jiangsu water spray enterprises start-up load is still on the eighty percent, and local knitting such as warp knitting and circular knitting enterprises holiday earlier, especially Changshu warp knitting and circular knitting machine enterprises and Xiao Shao's circular knitting machine enterprises, the start-up load is low, less than three percent of the operation. However, the start-up load of Haining warp knitting enterprises is acceptable, and it is still on the top of eighty. He Lingli, a senior analyst at Huarui Information (CCF), said.
According to CCF's research estimates, the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang will drop to less than three percent around January 28. The holiday decision of looms around the country is actually related to the quality of their own orders.
According to He Lingli, since late December last year, downstream orders and production have changed. "One is the rotation of domestic and foreign orders, driven by the continuous rise in sea freight, export orders have the demand for centralized shipments before the Spring Festival, and there is a rush to order in production; Therefore, enterprises with higher start-up load are mainly biased towards external orders, and the varieties are biased towards spring and summer products, and the performance of water jet looms is better, and the production of products such as twisting, imitation cotton, and elasticity is relatively busy. He Lingli said.
Hot tracking: the current Spring Festival is less than 20 days away, but the textile industry chain is still busy, fabric merchants are busy receiving orders, weaving factories lined up, dyeing factories are rushing to deliver, not only showing an obvious off-season atmosphere, and even a scene full of spring, some enterprises are shortening the holiday as much as possible, in addition to profits, other indicators are preferred.
At the same time, the downstream also began to start year-end stocking at the end of last week, and the momentum of this stocking intensified this week, even close to "crazy".
Due to the high polyester load during the Spring Festival and the unexpected reduction on the supply side, the two major polyester raw materials have performed relatively strongly recently. As of yesterday, the cost of polymerization has risen to nearly 6,600 yuan/ton. Recently, with the continuous rise of polyester raw materials, some downstream terminals and traders have been forced to start the annual back-up shipment.
Since the end of last week, polyester filament enterprises have received more large orders, and large orders have been negotiated in a single mode. According to CCF statistics, the production and sales of polyester have increased significantly for 4 consecutive days since the end of last week, and the downstream terminals have entered a state of comprehensive annual reserves.
From the point of view of the strength of stocking, first of all, traders have more stocks, and even the amount of goods at the level of 10,000 tons is not a few, and individual large chemical fiber enterprises have stopped billing for traders, in order to reduce the impact of selling goods and interfering with market prices in case of weakening in the future. Secondly, some entities downstream terminal enterprises stocking up to a month or more, some downstream enterprises feel that in the context of a large number of chemical fiber enterprises to inventory and a large number of short, the price may be stiff before the end of March after the year, so they have stocked up to the end of March, according to the first month of the fifteenth Lantern Festival, that is, February 25 to resume normal start to calculate, the amount of stocking needs about 35 days.
In total, according to the current atmosphere and strength of the downstream New Year's stocking, although it is inferior to the 2021 Spring Festival National Stock Meeting, it is significantly more than the 2022 and 2023 Spring Festival meetings......
CCF Quotes Daily 1.24
PTA: Negotiation is acceptable
| variety | Average daily price | Price |
| CCF Inner Disk PTA | 5965 yuan/ton cash withdrawal | 55 yuan/ton |
| CCF Outer Disk PTA (FOB China) | $770/ton | $0 / ton |
| CCF Inner Disk PTA Spot Basis | 2405-31 | 2 |
| CCF PX price | 1043 US dollars / ton | $0 / ton |
| PTA processing fee | 370 yuan/ton | 60 yuan/ton |
| CCF PTA Receiver Index | 5 |
Today's PTA futures are strong, the spot market negotiation is acceptable, individual mainstream suppliers ship, traders negotiate transactions, forward transactions are active, affected by device changes, the basis is strong in the afternoon, and low prices are reluctant to sell. In January and early February, the main port was traded around 05-25~32, and Ningbo goods were less negotiated, with individual transactions around 05-45, and the price negotiation range was around 5920-6010. In the second half of February, there are transactions around 05-20~25. In March, traders had transactions at 05-8~12, and suppliers traded at 05-20~25. Today's mainstream basis is 05-31.
In terms of installation: a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Northeast China has an unplanned short stop, which is expected to affect around 4-5 days. PTA: The 3.75 million ton unit of Yisheng Dahua Line 2 is expected to be overhauled at the end of February and is scheduled to last for one month, and the 2 million ton unit of Ningbo Yisheng Line 3 is expected to be shut down for renovation in early March.
Market outlook: the recent production and sales are acceptable, polyester factory inventory declined, boosted by this, optimistic expectations after the holiday, coupled with the afternoon maintenance news boost, PTA price increase expanded, the market far month to buy gas is acceptable, in the short term is expected to have a strong basis, price, commodity atmosphere is warm, is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but close to the previous high, pay attention to whether to break through the rise.
Direct spinning polyester short: downstream losses expanded
Boosted by news such as PTA overhaul, PF futures expanded their gains today. In the spot market, the mainstream offer of the factory is 7600-7700 ex-factory or short delivery, and the spot price is 7260-7400. Today's trading atmosphere is average, with an average production and sales of 40%, and the production and sales of mainstream factories are: production and sales of some factories: 30%, 30%, 30%, 70%, 100%, 20%, 50%, 50%.
Polyester yarn: the market stocking has come to an end, yarn sales have weakened, polyester yarn prices have stabilized, and polyester-cotton yarn has strengthened locally.
Market outlook: With the continuous rise of polyester shortage, the downstream buy and do losses have expanded, coupled with the expectation of post-holiday demand, the wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and it is cautious to chase high. However, boosted by the continuous increase in filament production and sales, PTA maintenance and other news, short-term staple fiber raw materials are supported, and the price range is expected to fluctuate.
Polyester filament: production and marketing are average
Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester silk today production and marketing as a whole, to 3 o'clock in the afternoon around the average production and sales is estimated at 7 into the top, Jiangsu and Zhejiang several factories production and sales were in 130%, 60%, 160%, 30%, 100%, 15%, 80%, 40%, 100%, 150%, 50%, 80%, 0%, 85%, 0%, 20%, 30%, 30%.
Market outlook: Today, the price of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continues to rise, and the overall production and sales are average. PTA, MEG closed up in the day, the cost of polyester raw materials continued to rise; polyester silk factory weak demand is still the same, the current downstream of the raw materials used before the Spring Festival is relatively sufficient, but the raw material stock after the Spring Festival is in a state of thought but cautious wait-and-see, on the one hand, the collection has not yet begun, on the other hand, the absolute price of the product lacks profits. Therefore, the support of speculative stocking demand before the Spring Festival of polyester silk is expected, but uncertain. Polyester silk factories are highly motivated to ship, but the cost is rising, and their own products lack benefit space, especially the current loss state of POY, so it is difficult for the price to have too much room for profit, and there is a price difference between the downstream stocking. The market is currently in a two-sided waiting, game running-in, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range.
Polyester bottle flakes: the center of gravity is rising
Inner disk: The trading atmosphere of the polyester bottle flakes market is general, and the center of gravity has moved up slightly. The overall mainstream transaction of orders from January to February ranged from 6980 to 7250 yuan/ton, which was slightly lower or slightly higher locally.
Exports: The export of polyester bottle flakes factories has been raised. The negotiation range of mainstream bottle flakes factories in East China ranges from 910-940 US dollars/ton FOB to Shanghai port, with slight differences depending on the brand, and the negotiation range in South China ranges from 900-920 US dollars/ton FOB main port, and the overall volume is preferential.
Market outlook: Recently, the cost of polyester raw materials has continued to rise, and the price of polyester bottle flakes has followed the rise. With the continuous strengthening of the price center of gravity, the trading atmosphere of the polyester bottle flakes market has picked up. However, considering the greater pressure on the supply in the later period, the fundamental driving force of polyester bottle flakes itself is weak, and the short-term market price is still dominated by the fluctuation of raw materials. In terms of exports, we will pay attention to changes in external crude oil, RMB exchange rate and sea freight.
Recycled chemical fiber: the price is firm
Recycled PET market: Some raw material manufacturers have stopped production, or are about to close the holiday, the supply of recycled raw materials is tight, and the overall market procurement price is strong. At present, the raw material reserves of recycled chemical fiber factories are generally low.
Recycled cotton market: Jiangsu and Zhejiang direct spinning polyester short quotation part of the increase of 50, semi-light 1.4D mainstream negotiation at 7350-7500 yuan/ton factory or short delivery, downstream on-demand procurement. Today's production and sales are weak, with an average of 40%. Today's quotation of the recycled general fiber market is more stable, and in the overall transaction follow-up, a few factories have been on holiday, and others are mostly concentrated in the holiday from January 25 to early February.
Recycled hollow market: The market price of recycled hollow today is more stable, the digestion is mainly increased, the overall inventory of finished products is low, the factory is gradually entering the holiday maintenance time, and the load is declining this week.
Regrowth silk market: Jiangsu, Zhejiang polyester silk price center of gravity raised, factory shipment price POY semi-light 75/72 mainstream 7800-7950, 150/48 mainstream 7500-7700, 300/96 mainstream 7450-7550, today's production and sales are average, in 7 into the top.
Market outlook: The overall supply of bottle bricks and bottle flakes is tight, the price is firm, and the low price is raised;
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