Qin Xuan: Accurately grasp the changes in the world, the times, and history

Editor's note

On January 19, 2024, the "10th (2024 Spring) Macro Situation Forum" hosted by Chinese University, organized by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University (Renmin University Chongyang), and co-organized by the Center for Global Governance of Chinese University and the Center for Sino-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center of Chinese University, was successfully held in Beijing. At the meeting, the research reports "The World at the Y-Shaped Intersection - Annual Report on the Macro Situation of the Chongyang Household of the National People's Congress in 2024" and "The Absurd Narrative: The Rise of the "Summit Theory of China's Rise" in the West and Suggestions for Responding to Them were released. Qin Xuan, Dean of the Institute of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Renmin University of Chinese, was invited to participate in the theme discussion of "Prospects for the International Security Situation in 2024". The following is the content of his speech:

▲Qin Xuan, Dean of the Institute of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, Chinese Minmin University

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020, the world has undergone major changes unseen in a century, and the changes of the world, the times, and history have begun to enter the academic circles and quickly enter the mainstream media. In April 2022, President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022, clearly pointing out: "At present, the changes in the world, the times, and history are unfolding in an unprecedented way, posing challenges to mankind that must be taken seriously. Since then, Comrade Xi Jinping has talked about the "three changes" on many occasions. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2022 also included this paragraph. We believe that these "three changes" are a judgment of the historical position of today's human society, and also an in-depth interpretation of "the great changes in the world unseen in a century". "The world is once again standing at the crossroads of history, and where it goes depends on the choices of the people of all countries."

01

How to recognize and grasp the changes in the world,

The change of the times, the change of history?

First, "changes in the world, in the times, and in history" are superimposed, mutually influential, and inseparable, and are a holistic change, and it is difficult to look at them separately. "World" itself is a unified category of time and space, "world" is the category of time, referring to the past and present, and "boundary" is the concept of space, referring to the top, down, left and right. The so-called changes in the world actually refer to the changes in the time and space of human life. The so-called changes of the times refer to the changes in the stages of development of human society according to economic, political, cultural, and other conditions, and the so-called historical changes refer to the changes in various elements that affect the course of human history.

Second, changes in the world, the times, and history are overall and long-term changes. According to General Secretary Xi Jinping, "This change is not limited to one event, one country and one region, but a profound and magnificent change of the times." From the perspective of the development process of human society, we are currently in the stage of "changes in the world, the times, and history", and there are unprecedented and tremendous changes in space and time, as well as in scale and connotation.

Third, the impact of this change is comprehensive in scope. It will not only affect the production and lifestyle of mankind, but also affect the way of thinking of mankind; it will not only affect economic and social development, but also affect the destiny of mankind as a whole; it will be long-term in terms of time, and it will not only affect the present and, more importantly, it will affect the future of mankind; in terms of the degree of impact, it will be far-reaching, some changes will be revolutionary and subversive, and some will even be unpredictable and difficult to deal with. Therefore, how to scientifically understand and grasp the "three changes" will determine the future and future of the world.

In conclusion, when we look at the world security situation, we must look at it comprehensively, as a whole, and in the long run, and we must have a view of the times and history.

02

The change of the world, the change of the times,

Where is the change in history?

In the eyes of many people, the changes in the world, the times, and history are just slogans and slogans, a precondition for people to think about problems, and a field for us to discuss many issues. In fact, these "three changes" have a very outstanding performance.

From the perspective of the economic field, economic globalization, which has been dominated by the West since the Great Geographical Discovery, is undergoing changes. Emerging market economies have become important leaders of economic globalization, participants in the formulation of rules of the game, and beneficiaries of economic globalization. Since 2010, the economic aggregate of the countries of the Global South has surpassed that of the North, and the contribution rate of emerging markets and developing countries to world economic growth has reached 80%, becoming the main driving force of global economic growth.

From the perspective of the political field, the trend of multipolarization in the world is becoming more and more obvious. From the perspective of the actors of international relations, first, the system of international relations since the establishment of the Westphalian system more than 300 years ago is changing, with intensified geopolitical competition, the combination of nationalism and nationalism, and the intensification of global fragmentation. Second, the United Nations-centered global governance system formulated since the end of World War II is also changing, the contradiction between nationalism and globalism in global governance has further intensified, and the global governance deficit is serious. Third, new changes have taken place in the international balance of power, with the "Global South" represented by developing countries continuing to rise and beginning to change the relative relationship of global power, and the momentum of multipolarization replacing the Western-centered unipolar world is unstoppable. This indicates that the signs of east-west tearing and north-south tearing are becoming more obvious, the world is on the dangerous brink of division and confrontation, and the global security situation is becoming more tense.

From the perspective of culture, since the beginning of globalization, the discourse system dominated by the West has been changing, the diversity of civilizations has become increasingly apparent, cultural exchanges and blending have become more frequent, but the confrontation between different civilizations has also become more and more intense. As the deep impact of the international financial crisis becomes increasingly apparent, the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have led to the decline of Western-led values. With the intensification of the conflict of values, the competition between different systems and civilizations is also very fierce.

From the perspective of scientific and technological development, the rapid development of science and technology and productive forces, especially digital technology, is changing the mode of existence, development and behavior of human society. Human society has gradually experienced the era of nomadism, agricultural civilization, and industrial civilization, and is moving towards the era of digitalization and intelligence, that is, the era of digital civilization. At present, mankind has just entered the initial stage of the era of digital civilization. In the era of digital civilization, major countries have launched new innovation strategies, increased investment, and competition around quantum information, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy technology, etc., especially the competition for strategic innovation resources such as talents, patents, and standards has intensified unprecedentedly, which may cause greater differentiation and conflict in the world.

From the perspective of the relationship between man and nature, climate change at the global level, the imbalance of the earth's ecological environment, the booming biotechnology and genetic engineering have begun to become increasingly out of control, and the decline of biodiversity has cast a lingering shadow on the future of mankind. According to the Living Planet Report 2020 published by the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), between 1970 and 2016, the population size of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish monitored decreased by an average of 68%. Overconsumption, population growth and intensive agriculture have led to a dramatic decline in wildlife populations, with one million species currently threatened or endangered. This is the dilemma that humanity has encountered since entering the era of Homo sapiens 200,000 years.

The security situation in 2024 is not optimistic, first, the crisis in Ukraine has not ended, second, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is still ongoing, and third, the elections in the United States and many European countries have brought many uncertainties. In addition, due to the slowdown in global economic growth, social crises in different countries have intensified, which may lead to political crises and even military conflicts.

03

How to respond to changes in the world,

The change of the times, the change of history?

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly pointed out: "The world once again stands at the crossroads of history, and where to go depends on the choices of the people of all countries." "Is it unity or division? peace or war? cooperation or confrontation; openness or closure; mutual benefit and win-win results or zero-sum game? How to deal with and choose? This is the question of the world, the times, China, and the people. The answers to these questions not only test the wisdom, responsibility, and responsibility of mankind, but also directly determine the future and destiny of the world.

We believe that although the great changes in the world are accelerating, the changes in the world, the times and history are unfolding in an unprecedented way, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, and the overall development and security are facing new challenges, the general direction of human development and progress will not change, the general logic of the tortuous progress of world history will not change, and the general trend of the international community sharing a common destiny will not change.

The right choice is to follow the trend of the times of peace, development, cooperation and win-win results, adhere to the common values of peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy and freedom, practice the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, promote the building of a new type of international relations, promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, and jointly create a better future for the world.

Chongyang, the National People's Congress

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RDCY

Established on January 19, 2013, Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University of China (Renmin University Chongyang) is the main funding project donated by Chongyang Investment to Chinese University and set up an education fund for operation.

As a new type of think tank with Chinese characteristics, Chongyang has hired dozens of former politicians, bankers, and well-known scholars from around the world as senior researchers, aiming to pay attention to reality, advise the country, and serve the people. At present, the Chongyang National People's Congress has 7 departments and 4 operation and management centers (the Center for Ecological Finance, the Center for Global Governance, the Center for China-US People-to-People Exchange, and the China-Russia Center for People-to-People Exchange). In recent years, the Chongyang National People's Congress has been highly recognized at home and abroad in the fields of financial development, global governance, major-country relations, and macroeconomic policy.

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