Lai Ching-te is facing three major crises, and the Taiwan authorities are in a difficult situation. The mainland does not rule out the termination of the ECFA, which will cause vibrations on the island, and the signal is not simple. What are the three major crises that Lai Qingde is facing? What signals has the mainland released if it does not rule out the termination of the ECFA?
On 21 January, Zhao Jianmin, former vice chairman of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, issued an article saying that although Lai Ching-te, who was elected leader of the Taiwan region, has not yet come to power, he is already facing three major crises. First, with Nauru's announcement of the "severance of diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, there has also been news of a "diplomatic turn" in Tuvalu, which means that during Lai Ching-de's tenure, the Taiwan authorities may face the result of "diplomatic relations" being zeroed. Coupled with the mainland's tightening of trade measures and restrictions on Taiwan and the abolition of preferential treatment for Taiwan, Taiwan's future is not optimistic.
Second, with the resumption of dialogue and exchanges between high-level Chinese and US officials, joint opposition to "Taiwan independence" has become the core consensus of China and the United States. The contradictions in US policy on the Taiwan issue have become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, the United States does not want to provoke the mainland and has made it clear that it will adhere to the one-China policy. On the other hand, it wants to use the Taiwan issue to contain the mainland. However, after nearly a year of playing games between China and the United States, the two sides have reached a consensus on opposing "Taiwan independence," and Lai Qingde wants to continue to manipulate the "Taiwan independence" issue, but the room for maneuver will only become smaller and smaller, and the conspiracy to "seek independence by relying on the United States" will also be shattered.
Third, the problem of antagonism between political parties on the island has become increasingly conspicuous, and the DPP authorities have persistently manipulated the "Taiwan independence" issue, triggering political disputes between the KMT and the DPP, and at the same time, it has also had a serious impact on cross-strait relations and made the prospects for peace more and more dim. Against the backdrop of a long list of problems that are difficult to return to and difficult for the DPP authorities to solve, these antagonisms will intensify day by day, eventually leading to numerous problems. Zhao Jianmin said: Judging from these three crises, the Taiwan authorities are in a very difficult situation.
However, Lai Qingde's problems are far more than these, and what makes him feel even more anxious is that a few days ago, the mainland side reported that the "Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement" (ECFA) may be terminated. On 22 January, the mainland side issued a document saying that the Taiwan authorities enjoy the mainland's policy of favoring Taiwan with hundreds of billions of dollars every year, but they take it for granted, not only ignoring the mainland's goodwill, but instead attacking the ECFA as a so-called "sugar-coated poison" and even using a large amount of dividends obtained under the ECFA to purchase weapons from the United States, in a vain attempt to further "arm Taiwan" and "resist reunification by force." Therefore, the possibility that the mainland side will terminate the ECFA cannot be ruled out.
Once the ECFA is terminated, a large number of zero-tariff agricultural and fishery products on the island may be canceled from tariff preferences, and the island's economy will usher in a cold winter. The mainland's move has sent a clear signal. First of all, the mainland will not allow the DPP authorities to continue this practice of violating the ECFA while enjoying the ECFA dividends.
As early as the end of 2023, the mainland announced the suspension of tariff concessions for some ECFA products, but the DPP authorities not only failed to take effective measures to correct their wrong practices, but instead engaged in political manipulation and put forward the so-called 22 "key core technology lists" to impose restrictions on cross-strait exchanges and cooperation. The mainland's termination of the ECFA is regarded as a legitimate countermeasure to the Taiwan authorities.
Secondly, this is also a "dismount" given by the mainland to Lai Qingde. The mainland has long made it clear that it will resolutely and forcefully oppose the "Taiwan independence" separatist plot and smash the "Taiwan independence" act. The mainland stresses that the motherland will eventually be reunified and will inevitably be reunified. Lai Ching-te's stubborn "Taiwan independence" stance will only push Taiwan into danger.
Although Lai Ching-te was successfully elected leader of the Taiwan region, this does not represent Taiwan, nor does it represent all Taiwan compatriots. Before Lai Qingde takes office, the termination of the ECFA is to send a warning to Lai Qingde and the DPP authorities not to go further and further down the wrong path.
Finally, the mainland's move is also aimed at comprehensively deterring other "Taiwan independence" elements on the island. The termination of the ECFA will have an impact on the island's petrochemical industry, including the industry. The petrochemical industry is in the hands of the Taiwan authorities, and these countermeasures will make the Taiwan authorities feel a marked change and at the same time deter the "Taiwan independence" elements who are ready to make a move within the DPP. This warning means a very strong move, and it will show the outside world that the economic and trade exchanges between the mainland and Taiwan will adopt a business-like strategy, and will no longer make endless and large-scale concessions.